Redfin Reports Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in Over a Year, Prompting Some House Hunters to Ramp Up Touring

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports that mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in over a year, reaching a daily average of 6.34% on August 5. This decline was influenced by a weaker-than-expected jobs report and recession concerns. Although home prices fell from their peak, with a median sale price of $389,750, it remains the smallest year-over-year increase in nine months at 3.2%. Pending sales also saw a 6.7% year-over-year decline, marking the largest drop in nine months. However, there are signs of renewed interest among buyers; mortgage-purchase applications rose slightly, and Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index saw a smaller decline. Touring activity increased by 13% since the start of the year, and new listings are up by 5.9%. Redfin economists suggest that now is a good time to enter the market due to lower rates and an abundance of unsold inventory.

Positive

• Mortgage rates fell to 6.34%, the lowest since April 2023.
• Median sale price is $389,750, showing a controlled price growth of 3.2% year-over-year.
• New listings increased by 5.9% year-over-year, the largest jump in five weeks.
• Touring activity grew 13% since the start of the year.

Negative

• Pending sales dropped 6.7% year-over-year, the largest decline in nine months.
• Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index is down 13% year-over-year.
• Median monthly mortgage payment is $2,665, still high despite lower rates.

Insights

Financial Analyst

The recent drop in mortgage rates to 6.34%, the lowest since April 2023, is a significant development for the housing market. This decrease, coupled with a 3.2% year-over-year increase in median sale price (the smallest in 9 months), signals a potential shift in market dynamics. However, the 6.7% year-over-year decline in pending sales suggests that affordability remains a concern.

The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index shows a 13% year-over-year decrease, the smallest in three months, indicating a possible uptick in buyer interest. The 5.9% increase in new listings year-over-year is also noteworthy, potentially easing supply constraints. These factors, combined with the rate drop, could lead to increased market activity in the coming months, particularly if rates continue to trend downward.

Real Estate Market Analyst

The housing market is showing signs of a potential shift. While pending sales are down 6.7% year-over-year, the increase in mortgage purchase applications and the smaller decline in Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index suggest growing interest among buyers. The 5.9% year-over-year increase in new listings is significant, potentially addressing inventory shortages that have plagued the market.

Regional variations are notable, with Detroit seeing a 16.8% increase in median sale price, while Austin experienced a 3.3% decrease. These disparities highlight the importance of local market conditions. The 18.9% increase in active listings nationally indicates a more balanced market, potentially giving buyers more options and negotiating power. This could lead to a more stable and sustainable housing market in the coming months.

Economist

The recent drop in mortgage rates, triggered by a soft jobs report and recession fears, presents a complex economic picture. While lower rates typically stimulate housing demand, the persistent affordability issues, evidenced by the 6.7% year-over-year decline in pending sales, suggest structural challenges in the market. The slight increase in mortgage purchase applications and touring activity indicates a cautious optimism among buyers.

The 3.2% year-over-year increase in median sale price, the smallest in 9 months, points to a potential cooling in price growth. This, combined with the 18.9% increase in active listings, could help alleviate some affordability pressures. However, the broader economic uncertainty, including recession fears, may continue to influence buyer behavior and market dynamics in the coming months. Monitoring these trends will be important for understanding the housing market's trajectory in the context of overall economic health.

A soft jobs report and recession jitters sent mortgage rates down last week. Despite the small improvement in affordability, pending sales still posted their biggest year-over-year decline in 9 months–but the rate drop prompted some prospective buyers to start the house-hunting process.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since April 2023 early this week, falling to a daily average of 6.34% on August 5, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Rates fell after a weaker-than-expected jobs report stoked recession fears; they have since ticked up, but they're still near the lowest level in over a year.

Home prices are also falling from their peak: The median sale price was $389,750 during the four weeks ending August 4, more than $6,000 below early July’s all-time high. While that’s a typical seasonal decline, the year-over-year increase of 3.2% is the smallest in nine months, indicating that price growth has eased slightly.

Home sales have yet to improve as the affordability crunch eases. Pending sales are down 6.7% year over year, the biggest decline in nine months, and there wasn’t an increase in offers written with Redfin agents this past weekend after rates fell on Friday. But there are some signs that house hunters are coming off the sidelines at early stages of the homebuying process, and that pending sales could improve soon. Mortgage-purchase applications rose slightly over the last week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 13% year over year, but that’s the smallest decline in three months. Additionally, Redfin agents report rising interest in touring homes.

“Many of the buyers I’m working with are excited because they’ve been casually house hunting for a year, waiting for rates to come down before they make an offer. Now a lot of those buyers want to get in now, before rates get too low and cause more competition,” said Redfin Premier agent Shoshana Godwin. “One of my listings, which went on the market last week, had over 100 parties come through and received nine offers. Buyers are securing lower rates than they were a few months ago, but costs are still high enough that buyers are picky. If they're going to have a high monthly payment, they want a move-in ready home so they don't have to pay for upgrades.”

On the supply side, new listings are re-gaining some of the momentum they had lost in recent weeks. New listings of homes for sale are up 5.9% year over year, the biggest increase in five weeks. Redfin economists say now is a good time to jump into the market, while there’s a pile of stale inventory and rates have started dropping.

For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.58% (Aug. 7)	Near lowest level since spring 2023; down from 7.14% a month earlier	Down from 7.04%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.73% (week ending Aug. 1)	Down from 7.22% in early May	Down from 6.9%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 2)	Down 11%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending Aug. 4)	Down 13%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 13% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 4)	At this time last year, it was up 8% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of Aug. 5)	Down 15%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending August 4, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending August 4, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$389,750	3.2%	$6,373 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7   Smallest increase in 9 months
Median asking price	$401,500	6%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,665 at a 6.73% mortgage rate	4%	Lowest level since March; $169 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales	82,075	-6.7%	Biggest decline in 9 months
New listings	95,968	5.9%
Active listings	1,002,695	18.9%
Months of supply	3.4	+0.6 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	36.8%	Down from 44%
Median days on market	34	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	30.2%	Down from 35%
Share of homes with a price drop	7.2%	+2 pts.	Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99.4%	-0.4 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending August 4, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Detroit (16.8%) Anaheim, CA (11.4%) Providence, RI (11.1%) New Brunswick, NJ (11%) Nassau County, NJ (10.3%)	Austin, TX (-3.3%) Dallas (-0.8%) Tampa, FL (-0.5%) Nashville, TN (-0.3%) San Antonio, TX (-0.1%)	Declined in 5 metros
Pending sales	San Francisco (9.1%) Los Angeles (4.4%) Newark, NJ (2.5%) Riverside, CA (0.8%) Providence, RI (0.6%) Sacramento, CA (0.4%)	Houston (-30.5%) Atlanta (-17%) Detroit (-15.1%) Minneapolis (-14.4%) West Palm Beach, FL (-14.3%)	Increased in 6 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (21.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (18.7%) Montgomery County, PA (18.4%) Baltimore (18.1%) San Diego (17.9%)	Atlanta (-16.4%) Houston (-12.1%) Austin, TX (-6.6%) Detroit (-3.1%) Warren, MI (-1.1%)	Declined in 8 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-tours-increase

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240808412530/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was the recent drop in mortgage rates reported by Redfin (RDFN)?

Mortgage rates dropped to a daily average of 6.34% on August 5, 2023, the lowest level since April 2023.

How have home prices changed according to the latest Redfin (RDFN) report?

The median sale price was $389,750, a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, the smallest rise in nine months.

What is the trend in pending sales as reported by Redfin (RDFN)?

Pending sales are down 6.7% year-over-year, the largest decline in nine months.

What did Redfin (RDFN) report about new home listings?

New home listings have increased by 5.9% year-over-year, the biggest rise in five weeks.

How has touring activity changed according to Redfin (RDFN)?

Touring activity increased by 13% from the start of the year.