Redfin Reports More Sellers Are Listing Their Homes, Hoping to Cash in on High Prices and Demand From Buyers

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports a significant 7.6% year-over-year increase in new home listings for the four weeks ending December 15, marking the second-largest rise since June. This surge is attributed to high home prices (up 6% YoY), improved consumer confidence, and increased homebuyer demand.

The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index shows a 9% YoY increase, reaching near its highest level since August 2023. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 18% month-over-month, while pending home sales rose 4.1%. The weekly average mortgage rate has declined for three consecutive weeks to 6.6%, though daily rates recently exceeded 7% following the Fed's announcement of fewer rate cuts than expected for 2025.

Positive

• New listings increased 7.6% YoY, showing market activity improvement
• Median home sale price up 6% YoY to $383,302
• Homebuyer Demand Index up 9% YoY
• Pending sales increased 4.1%
• Mortgage-purchase applications up 18% MoM

Negative

• Mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.6-7% range
• Active listings up 11.6% YoY, indicating potential market saturation
• Median days on market increased by 6 days YoY
• Share of homes sold above list price decreased to 23.9% from 25% YoY

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The surge in new listings, up 7.6% year-over-year, marks a pivotal shift in market dynamics. This increase, coupled with the 6% rise in median home prices to $383,302, signals a strategic response from sellers capitalizing on improved market conditions. The 18% month-over-month jump in mortgage purchase applications and 4.1% rise in pending sales validate strengthening buyer demand.

Key metropolitan trends reveal notable regional variations. Markets like Warren, MI and Milwaukee are experiencing double-digit price growth, while Tampa shows slight price declines. San Francisco leads new listings growth at 16.5%, indicating a potential market rebalancing in previously constrained areas.

The Homebuyer Demand Index's 9% year-over-year increase, despite higher rates, suggests a psychological shift - buyers are adapting to the new rate environment, viewing 6-7% mortgages as the new normal. This mindset adaptation could sustain market momentum into 2024.

Financial Analyst

The mortgage rate environment presents a complex dynamic for Redfin's business model. The decline in rates to 6.6% has catalyzed increased market activity, but the recent bounce back above 7% following Fed guidance merits attention. The monthly mortgage payment of $2,479 represents a more manageable 4.9% year-over-year increase, the lowest since September.

The average sale-to-list price ratio of 98.4% and 23.9% of homes selling above list price indicate a relatively balanced market. The 4-month supply suggests continued seller advantage, though inventory growth of 11.6% year-over-year points to improving selection for buyers.

For Redfin's business prospects, the combination of increased listings and sustained buyer demand could drive transaction volume growth, potentially boosting revenue. However, the company must navigate rate sensitivity and regional market variations to capitalize on this opportunity.

New listings posted their second-biggest annual increase since early summer this week, and pending home sales continue to rise

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — New listings of homes for sale are up 7.6%, the biggest year-over-year increase since June (except the four weeks ending November 24, when the increase was inflated due to Thanksgiving), according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This is based on data from the four weeks ending December 15.

There are several reasons more sellers are putting their homes on the market. One, home prices are high; the median U.S. home sale price is up 6% year over year, the second-biggest increase since October 2022. Two, consumer confidence rose to a 16-month high after November’s election, motivating more sellers to make the major financial decision to list their homes. And finally, some sellers are hoping to take advantage of the increased homebuying demand Redfin has seen over the last month.

The latest demand signals show it is continuing to strengthen. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is up 9% year over year, and is sitting near its highest level since August 2023. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 18% month over month, and pending home sales are up 4.1%, similar to the increases Redfin has seen over the last few months. Like sellers, many homebuyers are feeling more confident about making a big financial move after the summer and early fall slump. Declining mortgage rates are another reason more buyers are coming off the fence: The weekly average rate has declined for three weeks in a row to a two-month low of 6.6%. It’s worth noting that mortgage rates may have bottomed out for the time being; daily average rates rose above 7% on December 18 after the Fed signaled it will cut interest rates twice in 2025, instead of four times.

“We’re having a busier winter than usual; I have a handful of listings ready to hit the market right after the new year. This time last year, it was crickets,” said David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area. “Buyers are coming out of the woodwork because they’ve accepted that rates in the 6% to 7% range are the new normal, and they know that if they wait to buy, mortgage rates will probably stay the same but prices will be higher.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.13% (Dec. 18)	Up from 6.68% a week earlier	Up from 6.82%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.6% (week ending Dec. 12)	Down from 6.84% two weeks earlier	Down from 6.95%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Dec. 13)	Up 6%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 5% from a month earlier; near highest level since August 2023 (as of week ending Dec. 15)	Up 9%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Down 23% from the start of the year (as of Dec. 16)	At this time last year, it was down 32% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of Dec. 16)	Down 15%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 15, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Dec. 15, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$383,302	6%	Biggest increase since October 2022, except the 4-week period ending Nov. 2024, when the increase was inflated due to Thanksgiving
Median asking price	$377,475	5.5%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,479 at a 6.6% mortgage rate	4.9%	Lowest level since September
Pending sales	61,417	4.1%
New listings	58,723	7.6%
Active listings	966,321	11.6%
Months of supply	4	+0.1 pt.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	25.8%	Down from 28%
Median days on market	44	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	23.9%	Down from 25%
Average sale-to- list price ratio	98.4%	-0.1 pt.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 15, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Warren, MI (12.1%) Milwaukee (12%) Cleveland (11.9%) Miami (11.4%) Chicago (10.6%)	Tampa, FL (-1.2%)	Declined in 1 metro
Pending sales	Jacksonville, FL (16.4%) San Jose, CA (14.6%) Cincinnati (13.3%) Columbus, OH (13.3%) Denver (11.5%)	Warren, MI (-9.4%) San Diego (-7.2%) Orlando, FL (-5.9%) Houston (-5.6%) Philadelphia (-4.9%)	Declined in 12 metros
New listings	San Francisco (16.5%) Virginia Beach, VA (16.4%) Oakland, CA (15.8%) Columbus, OH (15.7%) Tampa, FL (15.4%)	San Antonio (-10%) Newark, NJ (-8.9%) Detroit (-7.6%) Orlando, FL (-6.2%) San Diego (-6%)	Declined in 12 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-more-new-listings-demand

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241219914572/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the current year-over-year increase in new home listings for RDFN?

Redfin reports a 7.6% year-over-year increase in new home listings for the four weeks ending December 15.

How much have home prices increased according to Redfin's latest report?

The median U.S. home sale price increased 6% year-over-year to $383,302, marking the second-biggest increase since October 2022.

What is the current mortgage rate trend according to RDFN's December report?

The weekly average mortgage rate declined for three consecutive weeks to 6.6%, though daily rates recently rose above 7%.

How has Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index changed year-over-year?

Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index is up 9% year-over-year and is near its highest level since August 2023.

What is the current median days on market for homes according to RDFN?

The median days on market is 44 days, which is 6 days longer compared to the same period last year.