Redfin Reports Housing Payments Post Biggest Decline in 4 Years Ahead of Fed's Historic Rate Cut, Which Could Lure Buyers Off the Sidelines
Redfin reports that U.S. housing payments have declined 2.7% year-over-year, marking the largest drop since May 2020. The median monthly payment is now $2,534, nearly $300 below April's peak. This improvement in affordability comes as mortgage rates hit a 20-month low ahead of the Fed's first interest rate cut since 2020.
Despite lower payments and a 5.1% increase in new listings, pending home sales are down 6.9% year-over-year. Buyers seem to be waiting for further rate drops, clarity on new NAR rules, and the outcome of the upcoming election. The market now has about four months of supply, up from three months last year, indicating a shift towards a more buyer-friendly market.
Redfin riporta che i pagamenti per le abitazioni negli Stati Uniti sono diminuiti del 2,7% rispetto all'anno precedente, segnando la maggiore riduzione da maggio 2020. Il pagamento mensile mediano è ora di $2.534, quasi $300 sotto il picco di aprile. Questo miglioramento nell'accessibilità avviene mentre i tassi ipotecari raggiungono il minimo degli ultimi 20 mesi in vista del primo taglio dei tassi d'interesse della Fed dal 2020.
Nonostante i pagamenti più bassi e un aumento del 5,1% delle nuove inserzioni, le vendite di case in attesa sono diminuite del 6,9% rispetto all'anno precedente. Gli acquirenti sembrano attendere ulteriori riduzioni dei tassi, chiarezza sulle nuove regole NAR e l'esito delle prossime elezioni. Il mercato ora ha circa quattro mesi di scorte, in aumento rispetto ai tre mesi dello scorso anno, indicando un cambiamento verso un mercato più favorevole agli acquirenti.
Redfin informa que los pagos por vivienda en EE. UU. han disminuido un 2.7% interanual, marcando la mayor caída desde mayo de 2020. El pago mensual medio es ahora de $2,534, casi $300 por debajo del pico de abril. Esta mejora en la asequibilidad se produce a medida que las tasas hipotecarias alcanzan un mínimo de 20 meses antes del primer recorte de tasas de interés de la Fed desde 2020.
A pesar de los pagos más bajos y un aumento del 5.1% en las nuevas propiedades listadas, las ventas de viviendas pendientes han bajado un 6.9% interanual. Los compradores parecen estar esperando más reducciones en las tasas, claridad sobre las nuevas reglas de la NAR y el resultado de las próximas elecciones. El mercado ahora cuenta con aproximadamente cuatro meses de suministro, un aumento respecto a los tres meses del año pasado, lo que indica un cambio hacia un mercado más favorable para los compradores.
Redfin은 미국의 주택 납부액이 전년 대비 2.7% 감소했다고 보고하며, 이는 2020년 5월 이후 가장 큰 하락폭이다. 현재 중간 월 납부액은 $2,534로, 4월의 정점보다 거의 $300 낮아졌다. 모기지 금리가 20개월 만에 최저치를 기록하면서 주택 구입 가능성이 개선되고 있다. 이는 2020년 이후 연준의 첫 금리 인하 전이다.
낮은 납부액과 함께 새로운 매물 수가 5.1% 증가했음에도 불구하고, 보류 중인 주택 판매는 전년 대비 6.9% 감소했다. 구매자들은 추가 금리 인하, 새로운 NAR 규칙에 대한 명확성, 그리고 다가오는 선거의 결과를 기다리는 것으로 보인다. 현재 시장에는 약 4개월의 공급량이 있으며, 이는 작년의 3개월에서 증가한 수치로, 구매자 친화적인 시장으로의 변화를 나타낸다.
Redfin rapporte que les paiements immobiliers aux États-Unis ont diminué de 2,7 % par rapport à l'année dernière, marquant la plus grande baisse depuis mai 2020. Le paiement mensuel médian est maintenant de 2 534 $, soit presque 300 $ en dessous du pic d'avril. Cette amélioration de l'accessibilité se produit alors que les taux hypothécaires atteignent un niveau bas de 20 mois avant la première baisse de taux d'intérêt de la Fed depuis 2020.
Malgré des paiements plus bas et une augmentation de 5,1 % des nouvelles inscriptions, les ventes de maisons en attente ont diminué de 6,9 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Les acheteurs semblent attendre de nouvelles baisses de taux, une clarification sur les nouvelles règles de la NAR et l'issue des prochaines élections. Le marché dispose maintenant d'environ quatre mois d'approvisionnement, contre trois mois l'année dernière, ce qui indique un changement vers un marché plus favorable aux acheteurs.
Redfin berichtet, dass die Wohnungszahlungen in den USA im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 2,7% gesunken sind, was den größten Rückgang seit Mai 2020 darstellt. Die mediane monatliche Zahlung beträgt jetzt 2.534 $, fast 300 $ unter dem Höchststand im April. Diese Verbesserung der Erschwinglichkeit tritt ein, während die Hypothekenzinsen einen 20-Monats-Tiefstand erreichen vor der ersten Zinssenkung der Fed seit 2020.
Trotz niedrigerer Zahlungen und einem Anstieg der neuen Angebote um 5,1%, sind die ausstehenden Hausverkäufe um 6,9% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gesunken. Käufer scheinen auf weitere Zinssenkungen, Klarheit über die neuen NAR-Regeln und das Ergebnis der bevorstehenden Wahlen zu warten. Der Markt hat jetzt etwa vier Monate Angebotszeit, ein Anstieg von drei Monaten im letzten Jahr, was auf eine Verschiebung zu einem käuferfreundlicheren Markt hinweist.
- Median U.S. housing payment decreased 2.7% year-over-year to $2,534
- Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in 20 months
- New listings increased by 5.1% year-over-year
- Total number of homes for sale up 16.1% year-over-year
- Months of supply increased to 4 months, indicating a more balanced market
- Pending home sales down 6.9% year-over-year
- Median sale price increased 3.4% year-over-year to $385,375
- Share of homes sold above list price decreased to 27.5% from 32% last year
- Median days on market increased by 6 days compared to last year
Insights
The decline in median U.S. housing payments by
The
Investors should monitor how the Fed's rate cut impacts mortgage rates and buyer behavior in the coming months. The potential for increased winter activity, contrary to seasonal norms, could present unique opportunities in the real estate sector.
The housing market is showing signs of a potential shift, with improving affordability yet lagging sales. The
Regional disparities are notable, with Newark, NJ seeing an
The
Investors should closely monitor these trends, as they may signal a potential market inflection point, especially if buyer activity picks up in response to falling mortgage rates and increased inventory.
The housing market is at a critical juncture, with improving affordability not yet translating into increased sales. The
The increase in inventory, with new listings up
The divergence between rising mortgage applications (
The unusual expectation of a busier winter market could disrupt traditional seasonal patterns, presenting both opportunities and challenges for buyers, sellers and investors in the coming months.
Monthly housing payments have declined nearly
Mortgage applications are rising, but pending sales have yet to improve. Mortgage-purchase applications are up
There are several reasons sales haven’t yet picked up. Home prices are still rising, and Redfin agents report that some would-be buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to fall more, while other prospective buyers aren’t even aware that rates have started to fall. Aside from rate-related reasons, agents report many house hunters are confused about the new NAR rules and others are waiting until after the election.
“Buyers are holding their breath, watching interest rates. There’s pent-up energy, with people waiting for the right moment to buy a home–and it’s feeling like the dam is going to break soon,” said Kristin Sanchez, a Redfin Premier agent in
Inventory is piling up. The combination of rising inventory and slow sales is causing for-sale homes to pile up, and many listings are growing stale. There are roughly four months of supply available on the market, the most since February and up from just over three months last year. Months of supply is the length of time it would take for the existing supply of homes to be bought up at the current pace of sales; the higher the number, the more buyer-friendly the market.
Fed’s interest-rate cut may bring buyers off the sidelines. Demand may improve after yesterday’s interest-rate cut, with house hunters who had been waiting for the Fed to lower rates jumping into the market now that it has happened. Redfin economists note that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall much further in the next few weeks because markets had already priced in expectations of an aggressive rate cut, and the Fed is projecting only gradual cuts from here on out. But mortgage rates may swing up or down before the end of the year, depending on upcoming inflation and jobs reports.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
|
Near lowest level since February 2023 |
Down from |
Mortgage News Daily |
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
|
Lowest level since February 2023 |
Down from |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Increased |
Down |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 15) |
Down |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Up
|
At this time last year, it was down |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Down |
Down
|
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ |
|||
|
Four weeks ending Sept. 15, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
|
|
Median asking price |
|
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
|
- |
Biggest decline since May 2020
Nearly |
Pending sales |
75,933 |
- |
|
New listings |
88,196 |
|
|
Active listings |
998,854 |
|
Smallest increase since April |
Months of supply |
3.9 |
+0.8 pts. |
Highest level since February
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
|
Down from |
|
Median days on market |
37 |
+6 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
|
Down from |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
|
-0.4 pts. |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 15, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
|
Declined in 9 metros |
Pending sales |
|
|
Increased in 15 metros |
New listings |
|
|
Declined in 12 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-housing-payments-fall
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240919958324/en/
Redfin Journalist Services:
Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
Source: Redfin
FAQ
What is the current median U.S. housing payment according to Redfin's report?
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What is the current months of supply in the housing market as reported by Redfin (RDFN)?
How has the median sale price changed year-over-year according to Redfin's (RDFN) data?
