Redfin Reports Homebuyers Aren’t Yet Reacting to Lower Mortgage Rates, With Pending Sales Posting Biggest Year-Over-Year Decline in 9 Months
Redfin reports that despite lower mortgage rates and declining home prices, homebuyers are not yet responding to improved affordability. The median U.S. monthly housing payment dropped to $2,667, its lowest level since March. However, pending home sales are down 5.7% year-over-year, the biggest decline in nine months. Mortgage-purchase applications have also decreased by 14%.
New listings are up 4% year-over-year but losing momentum. Nearly two-thirds of homes for sale have been on the market for at least 30 days. Redfin agents report that while there's demand for turnkey homes in desirable neighborhoods, some buyers are waiting until after the presidential election to purchase. The median home-sale price is $392,563, down slightly from its early July peak.
Redfin riporta che nonostante i bassi tassi di interesse sui mutui e il declino dei prezzi delle case, gli acquirenti di case non stanno ancora rispondendo a una maggiore accessibilità economica. Il pagamento mensile medio per abitazioni negli Stati Uniti è sceso a $2,667, il livello più basso da marzo. Tuttavia, le vendite di case in attesa sono diminuite del 5,7% rispetto all'anno precedente, il calo più consistente negli ultimi nove mesi. Anche le richieste di mutui per l'acquisto sono diminuite del 14%.
Le nuove inserzioni sono aumentate del 4% anno su anno, ma stanno perdendo slancio. Quasi due terzi delle case in vendita sono sul mercato da almeno 30 giorni. Gli agenti di Redfin segnalano che, sebbene vi sia domanda per case pronte da abitare in quartieri desiderabili, alcuni acquirenti stanno aspettando dopo le elezioni presidenziali per acquistare. Il prezzo mediano di vendita delle case è di $392,563, in leggero calo rispetto al picco di inizio luglio.
Redfin informa que a pesar de los bajos tipos de interés hipotecario y la bajada de precios de las viviendas, los compradores aún no están respondiendo a una mayor asequibilidad. El pago mensual medio de vivienda en EE.UU. ha bajado a $2,667, su nivel más bajo desde marzo. Sin embargo, las ventas de casas pendientes han disminuido un 5,7% interanual, la mayor caída en nueve meses. Las solicitudes de hipotecas para la compra también han disminuido un 14%.
Las nuevas listas han aumentado un 4% en comparación con el año anterior, pero están perdiendo impulso. Casi dos tercios de las viviendas en venta han estado en el mercado durante al menos 30 días. Los agentes de Redfin informan que, aunque hay demanda de casas listas para habitar en barrios deseables, algunos compradores están esperando hasta después de las elecciones presidenciales para comprar. El precio medio de venta de las viviendas es de $392,563, ligeramente por debajo de su pico a principios de julio.
레드핀은 저금리와 주택 가격 하락에도 불구하고, 주택 구매자들이 향상된 주거 가능성에 아직 반응하지 않고 있다고 보고합니다. 미국의 월 주택 지불액 중간값은 $2,667로, 3월 이후 최저 수준입니다. 하지만 대기 중인 주택 판매는 전년 대비 5.7% 감소했으며, 이는 9개월 만에 가장 큰 하락폭입니다. 또한 주택 구매를 위한 대출 신청도 14% 감소했습니다.
새로운 매물은 전년 대비 4% 증가했지만, momentum을 잃어가고 있습니다. 판매 중인 주택의 거의 3분의 2가 최소 30일 이상 시장에 나와 있습니다. 레드핀의 에이전트들은 바람직한 지역의 즉시 입주 가능한 주택에 대한 수요가 있지만, 일부 구매자들은 대통령 선거가 끝난 후 구입하기를 기다리고 있다고 보고합니다. 주택 판매 중간 가격은 $392,563로, 7월 초 급등한 가격에서 약간 하락했습니다.
Redfin rapporte que malgré des taux hypothécaires plus bas et une baisse des prix des maisons, les acheteurs ne réagissent pas encore à une accessibilité financière améliorée. Le paiement mensuel médian pour le logement aux États-Unis a chuté à 2 667 $, son niveau le plus bas depuis mars. Cependant, les ventes de maisons en attente ont diminué de 5,7 % par rapport à l'année précédente, ce qui représente la plus forte baisse en neuf mois. Les demandes de prêts hypothécaires pour achat ont également diminué de 14 %.
Les nouvelles annonces ont augmenté de 4 % par rapport à l'année précédente, mais perdent de l'élan. Près de deux tiers des maisons à vendre sont sur le marché depuis au moins 30 jours. Les agents de Redfin rapportent que, bien qu'il y ait une demande pour des maisons prêtes à emménager dans des quartiers recherchés, certains acheteurs attendent après les élections présidentielles pour acheter. Le prix de vente moyen des maisons est de 392 563 $, en légère baisse par rapport au pic début juillet.
Redfin berichtet, dass trotz niedriger Hypothekenzinsen und fallender Immobilienpreise die Käufer noch nicht auf die verbesserte Erschwinglichkeit reagieren. Die
Neue Angebote sind im Jahresvergleich um 4% gestiegen, verlieren jedoch an Schwung. Fast zwei Drittel der zum Verkauf stehenden Häuser sind seit mindestens 30 Tagen auf dem Markt. Redfin-Agenten berichten, dass es zwar eine Nachfrage nach bezugsfertigen Häusern in begehrten Vierteln gibt, einige Käufer jedoch bis nach den Präsidentschaftswahlen warten, um zu kaufen. Der mittlere Verkaufs Preis von Wohnimmobilien beträgt $392,563 und ist leicht gesunken im Vergleich zum Höchststand Anfang Juli.
- Median U.S. monthly housing payment decreased to $2,667, the lowest level since March
- Mortgage rates dropped from May's five-month high of 7.22% to 6.78%
- New listings increased by 4% year-over-year
- Median sale price increased by 4.1% year-over-year to $392,563
- Pending home sales declined by 5.7% year-over-year, the biggest drop in nine months
- Mortgage-purchase applications decreased by 14% year-over-year
- Nearly two-thirds of homes for sale have been on the market for at least 30 days
- Share of homes sold above list price decreased from 36% to 30.8% year-over-year
Insights
The latest Redfin report reveals a complex housing market landscape, with some intriguing developments that warrant closer examination. The median U.S. monthly housing payment has decreased to $2,667, its lowest level in four months, primarily due to falling mortgage rates and a slight dip in sale prices. However, this improved affordability hasn't translated into increased buyer activity as one might expect.
Several factors are at play here:
- Pending home sales are down
5.7% year-over-year, the largest decline in nine months. - Mortgage-purchase applications have dropped
14% year-over-year. - New listings are up
4% year-over-year, but this is the smallest increase in nearly nine months.
The disconnect between improving affordability and declining sales activity is particularly noteworthy. It suggests that while the cost of homeownership has marginally improved, it's still not enough to overcome other market headwinds. The median home-sale price of
Another important factor is the quality of available inventory. With nearly two-thirds of homes on the market for 30+ days without going under contract, it's clear that many listings aren't meeting buyer expectations. This mismatch between supply and demand could be contributing to the sales slowdown.
Looking ahead, the market may see some movement as mortgage rates continue to decline. However, broader economic factors, including wage growth and inflation, will play a important role in determining the housing market's trajectory in the coming months.
The Redfin report offers valuable insights into the current state of the U.S. housing market, revealing some interesting economic dynamics at play. The decline in monthly housing payments, driven by falling mortgage rates and a slight dip in sale prices, represents a modest improvement in affordability. However, the lack of corresponding increase in buyer activity suggests that other economic factors are weighing heavily on consumer decision-making.
Several key points merit attention:
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to
6.78% , down from May's five-month high of7.22% . - Despite this decrease, mortgage-purchase applications are down
14% year-over-year. - The median home-sale price of
$392,563 is still near record highs, indicating persistent affordability challenges.
The disconnect between improving financing conditions and declining sales activity suggests that broader economic concerns are influencing the housing market. Factors such as political uncertainty, with some buyers reportedly waiting until after the presidential election and concerns about wage growth not keeping pace with home prices and inflation, are likely contributing to the cautious buyer sentiment.
This situation underscores the complex interplay between monetary policy, fiscal policy and consumer behavior in the housing market. While lower interest rates typically stimulate demand, the current market dynamics demonstrate that rate adjustments alone may not be sufficient to overcome structural economic challenges and uncertainties.
As we move forward, it will be important to monitor how these trends evolve, particularly in light of potential shifts in economic policy and any changes in broader macroeconomic conditions. The housing market's response to these factors will provide valuable insights into consumer confidence and overall economic health.
The Redfin report presents a fascinating case study in consumer behavior within the housing market. Despite improved affordability conditions, we're seeing a counterintuitive response from potential homebuyers. This scenario offers rich insights into the complex decision-making processes of consumers in high-stakes purchases.
Key behavioral trends to note:
- Pending home sales are down
5.7% year-over-year, despite lower monthly payments. - Nearly two-thirds of homes for sale have been on the market for 30+ days, indicating a mismatch between buyer preferences and available inventory.
- Some buyers are reportedly delaying purchases until after the presidential election, showcasing the impact of perceived political uncertainty on major financial decisions.
These trends suggest that consumers are weighing multiple factors beyond just affordability when considering home purchases. The psychological impact of home prices being near record highs, even if monthly payments have decreased, appears to be a significant deterrent. This aligns with prospect theory in behavioral economics, which posits that people perceive losses and gains differently, often giving more weight to potential losses.
The report also highlights the importance of product-market fit in real estate. The slow movement of inventory indicates that consumers have specific preferences that aren't being met by current listings. This selectivity, even in a market with improved affordability, underscores the emotional and lifestyle factors that play into housing decisions.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor how consumer sentiment evolves as economic conditions change. Will sustained lower mortgage rates eventually overcome buyer hesitation? Or will other factors, such as economic uncertainty or specific housing preferences, continue to dominate decision-making? These questions will be key to understanding future market dynamics and consumer behavior in the housing sector.
Monthly housing payments have dropped to their lowest level in four months, but homebuyers and sellers aren’t yet reacting. In addition to pending home sales falling, new listings posted their smallest increase in three months.
Payments are declining because mortgage rates and sale prices are falling: The weekly average mortgage rate is
Despite improving affordability, pending home sales are down
Another reason for dwindling sales is a lack of desirable listings. New listings are up
But Redfin agents report that there is plenty of demand for turnkey homes in desirable neighborhoods, and some expect sales to pick up soon as mortgage rates come down.
“Local buyers are still worried about affordability, especially since wages haven’t caught up with home-price growth and inflation has cut into their budgets. But now that rates are declining, some fence-sitters are getting off the fence,” said
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
|
Lowest level since February; down from |
Down from |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
|
Down from |
Down slightly from |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Decreased |
Down |
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending July 28) |
Down |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Up |
At this time last year, it was up |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Up |
Down |
|
Key housing-market data
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ |
|||
|
Four weeks ending July 28, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
|
|
Median asking price |
|
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
|
|
Lowest level since March; |
Pending sales |
79,855 |
- |
Biggest decline in nearly 9 months |
New listings |
90,940 |
|
Smallest increase in nearly 9 months |
Active listings |
989,047 |
|
Smallest increase in 3 months |
Months of supply |
3.8 |
+0.8 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
|
Down from |
|
Median days on market |
33 |
+5 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
|
Down from |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
|
+1.8 pts. |
Highest level on record |
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
|
-0.5 pts. |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 28, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
|
Declined in 2 metros |
Pending sales |
|
|
Increased in 7 metros |
New listings |
|
|
Declined in 13 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-monthly-payments-down
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240801617669/en/
Contact Redfin
Redfin Journalist Services:
Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
Source: Redfin
FAQ
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