Redfin Reports 17% of Homeowners With Mortgages Have an Interest Rate of at Least 6%, the Highest Share in Nearly a Decade
Redfin (RDFN) reports that 17.2% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages now have an interest rate of 6% or higher, marking the highest percentage since 2016. This represents a significant increase from 12.3% in Q3 2023. The analysis shows that 82.8% of mortgaged homeowners still have rates below 6%, with specific breakdowns showing 73.3% below 5%, 55.2% below 4%, and 21.3% below 3%.
The 'lock-in effect,' where homeowners resist selling due to having lower mortgage rates than current market rates, is gradually easing. This shift is attributed to people accepting that rates won't return to pandemic lows, increased home equity enabling moves despite higher rates, and life events necessitating relocations. As a result, both new listings and active listings are higher than the previous year, though some of this increase is due to properties remaining on the market longer.
Redfin (RDFN) riferisce che il 17,2% dei proprietari di casa negli Stati Uniti con mutui ha attualmente un tasso di interesse del 6% o superiore, segnando la percentuale più alta dal 2016. Questo rappresenta un significativo aumento rispetto al 12,3% nel terzo trimestre del 2023. L'analisi mostra che l'82,8% dei proprietari di casa con mutuo ha ancora tassi inferiori al 6%, con suddivisioni specifiche che mostrano il 73,3% sotto il 5%, il 55,2% sotto il 4% e il 21,3% sotto il 3%.
Il 'lock-in effect', dove i proprietari resistono a vendere a causa di tassi di mutuo più bassi rispetto ai tassi di mercato attuali, sta gradualmente diminuendo. Questo cambiamento è attribuito all'accettazione da parte delle persone che i tassi non torneranno ai minimi della pandemia, all'aumento del valore patrimoniale delle case che consente di muoversi nonostante i tassi più elevati, e agli eventi della vita che richiedono trasferimenti. Di conseguenza, sia le nuove inserzioni che quelle attive sono superiori rispetto all'anno precedente, sebbene parte di questo aumento sia dovuta al fatto che le proprietà rimangono sul mercato più a lungo.
Redfin (RDFN) informa que el 17.2% de los propietarios de viviendas en EE. UU. con hipotecas ahora tienen una tasa de interés del 6% o más, marcando el porcentaje más alto desde 2016. Esto representa un aumento significativo desde el 12.3% en el tercer trimestre de 2023. El análisis muestra que el 82.8% de los propietarios con hipotecas aún tienen tasas por debajo del 6%, con desgloses específicos que muestran el 73.3% por debajo del 5%, el 55.2% por debajo del 4% y el 21.3% por debajo del 3%.
El 'efecto de retención', donde los propietarios resisten vender debido a tener tasas hipotecarias más bajas que las tasas actuales del mercado, está disminuyendo gradualmente. Este cambio se atribuye a que la gente acepta que las tasas no volverán a los mínimos de la pandemia, al aumento de la equidad en la vivienda que permite mudanzas a pesar de las tasas más altas, y a eventos de vida que requieren reubicaciones. Como resultado, tanto las nuevas listas como las listas activas son más altas que el año anterior, aunque parte de este aumento se debe a que las propiedades permanecen en el mercado por más tiempo.
Redfin (RDFN)에 따르면, 현재 미국에서 모기지를 가진 주택 소유자의 17.2%가 6% 이상의 이자율을 가지고 있으며, 이는 2016년 이후 가장 높은 수치입니다. 이는 2023년 3분기 12.3%에서 크게 증가한 수치입니다. 분석에 따르면 82.8%의 모기지를 가진 주택 소유자들은 여전히 6% 미만의 이자율을 갖고 있으며, 구체적인 세분화에서는 73.3%가 5% 미만, 55.2%가 4% 미만, 21.3%가 3% 미만입니다.
'잠금 효과'는 주택 소유자들이 현재 시장 이자율보다 낮은 모기지 이자율 때문에 판매를 꺼리는 현상으로, 점차 완화되고 있습니다. 이 변화는 사람들이 이자율이 팬데믹 당시의 저점으로 돌아가지 않을 것이라는 사실을 받아들이고, 증가한 주택 순자산이 높은 이자율에도 불구하고 이사를 가능하게 하며, 인생의 사건으로 인해 이사가 필요해지고 있는 것으로 설명됩니다. 그 결과, 새로운 매물과 활성 매물이 모두 지난해보다 높아졌지만, 이러한 증가의 일부는 부동산이 시장에 더 오래 남아 있기 때문입니다.
Redfin (RDFN) rapporte que 17,2% des propriétaires américains ayant des hypothèques ont actuellement un taux d'intérêt de 6% ou plus, marquant le pourcentage le plus élevé depuis 2016. Cela représente une augmentation significative par rapport à 12,3% au troisième trimestre 2023. L'analyse montre que 82,8% des propriétaires avec hypothèque ont encore des taux inférieurs à 6%, avec des détails spécifiques montrant que 73,3% sont en dessous de 5%, 55,2% en-dessous de 4% et 21,3% en-dessous de 3%.
L'effet de 'lock-in', où les propriétaires résistent à vendre en raison de taux hypothécaires plus bas que les taux actuels du marché, se dissipe progressivement. Ce changement est attribué à l'acceptation par les gens que les taux ne reviendront pas aux niveaux bas de la pandémie, à l'augmentation de la valeur nette des maisons permettant de déménager malgré des taux plus élevés, et à des événements de la vie nécessitant des déménagements. En conséquence, les nouvelles annonces et les annonces actives sont plus nombreuses que l'année précédente, bien qu'une partie de cette augmentation soit due au fait que les biens restent sur le marché plus longtemps.
Redfin (RDFN) berichtet, dass 17,2% der US-Hausbesitzer mit Hypotheken derzeit einen Zinssatz von 6% oder höher haben, was den höchsten Prozentsatz seit 2016 darstellt. Dies ist ein signifikanter Anstieg gegenüber 12,3% im 3. Quartal 2023. Die Analyse zeigt, dass 82,8% der hypothekenbelasteten Hausbesitzer weiterhin Zinssätze unter 6% haben, wobei spezifische Aufschlüsselungen zeigen, dass 73,3% unter 5%, 55,2% unter 4% und 21,3% unter 3% liegen.
Der 'Lock-in-Effekt', bei dem Hausbesitzer zögern zu verkaufen, weil sie niedrigere Hypothekenzinsen als die aktuellen Marktzinsen haben, schwächt sich allmählich ab. Dieser Wandel wird darauf zurückgeführt, dass Menschen akzeptieren, dass die Zinsen nicht zu den pandemiebedingten Tiefstständen zurückkehren werden, dass das gestiegene Eigenkapital in Immobilien Umzüge trotz höherer Zinsen ermöglicht und dass Lebensereignisse einen Umzug erforderlich machen. Infolgedessen sind sowohl neue Inserate als auch aktive Inserate höher als im Vorjahr, obwohl ein Teil dieses Anstiegs darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass die Immobilien länger auf dem Markt bleiben.
- Increasing new listings and active listings compared to previous year
- Rising home equity enables homeowners to sell despite higher rates
- 17.2% of mortgaged homeowners now have interest rates ≥6%, highest since 2016
- Properties are staying longer on the market, leading to stale inventory accumulation
Insights
The reported 17.2% of homeowners with mortgage rates ≥6% marks a pivotal shift in market dynamics, signaling the gradual unwinding of the lock-in effect that has constrained housing inventory. This transformation carries significant implications for market participants and investors in real estate-related securities.
Several key factors warrant attention:
- The acceleration of rate normalization is evident in the nearly 5 percentage point increase in high-rate mortgages from Q3 2023, suggesting a faster-than-expected market adaptation
- The decline in sub-6% mortgages to 82.8% from the 92.7% peak in 2022 indicates a structural shift in the market's rate composition
- The psychological barrier of rate lock-in appears to be weakening as homeowners adjust their expectations and accept the new rate environment
The implications for the housing market are multifaceted:
- Increased listing activity could lead to a more balanced market, potentially moderating price appreciation
- The rising proportion of equity-rich homeowners (due to pandemic price appreciation) provides a cushion for those considering moves despite higher rates
- The growing share of mortgage-free homeowners adds a layer of market resilience and potential supply flexibility
For RDFN and other real estate platforms, this trend suggests a potential increase in transaction volume as market participants adjust to the new normal. However, the accumulation of stale listings indicates that price discovery remains challenging, which could impact commission revenues and transaction velocity in the near term.
The lock-in effect is starting to ease because Americans are growing accustomed to elevated rates, and for many, it’s not realistic to stay put forever. That’s boosting listings and easing the housing shortage.
Meanwhile,
But this lock-in effect has been easing; in the third quarter of 2023, for example,
America has been grappling with a severe housing shortage, in part because the lock-in effect has disincentivized people from putting their homes up for sale. Mortgage rates are now more than double the
Redfin agents report that many people are moving because a major life event like a job change or divorce has given them no other choice. There are a few other reasons the lock-in effect is easing. One, many Americans are growing accustomed to the idea that rates are unlikely to fall to pandemic lows anytime soon. Two, the pandemic surge in home values means many homeowners have enough equity to justify selling and taking on a higher rate—especially if they’re downsizing or moving somewhere more affordable. And finally, a rising share of Americans are mortgage-free, which means they’re not locked into any rate at all.
Everyone who bought a home in the last two years did so at a time when the average weekly mortgage rate was above
“The rate-lock effect is letting up a bit here in Seattle,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent David Palmer. “Homeowners hate to give up their 2
Here’s a breakdown of where today’s homeowners fall on the mortgage-rate spectrum:
-
Below
6% :82.8% of mortgagedU.S. homeowners have a rate below6% , down from a record92.7% in Q2 2022 and the lowest share since the Q4 2016. -
Below
5% :73.3% have a rate below5% , down from a record85.6% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q3 2017. -
Below
4% :55.2% have a rate below4% , down from a record65.1% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q4 2020. -
Below
3% :21.3% have a rate below3% , down from a record24.6% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q2 2021.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database through the third quarter of 2024, the most recent period for which data is available.
Click here to read our economists’ latest outlook for mortgage rates.
To view the full report, including a chart, additional data and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/mortgage-rate-lock-in-effect-eases/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250206442392/en/
Contact Redfin
Redfin Journalist Services:
Isabelle Novak
press@redfin.com
Source: Redfin
FAQ
What percentage of US homeowners have mortgage rates above 6% according to Redfin (RDFN)?
How is the mortgage rate lock-in effect impacting RDFN's housing market in 2024?
What percentage of homeowners have mortgage rates below 3% in Redfin's latest report?
How has the share of homeowners with sub-6% mortgage rates changed since 2022?
