Pending Home Sales Fell the Most Since 2022 in December as Mortgage Rates Jumped
Redfin reports roughly 40,000 home purchases were called off in December, equal to
Homebuyer demand dipped at the end of the year because mortgage rates jumped. After inching downward at the beginning of the month, mortgage rates reversed course halfway through December and have been rising since—in part because the Federal Reserve projected fewer 2025 interest-rate cuts than anticipated. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate now sits at
Home purchases fell through at the highest December rate on record, which likely contributed to the decline in pending sales. Nearly 40,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, equal to
“Homebuying activity will likely slow further in January due to the wildfires impacting Los Angeles—the nation’s second most populous metro area—and winter storms impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “Rent prices, on the other hand, may tick up as people who have been displaced by the fires seek alternative housing.”
Existing Home Sales Rose to the Highest Level in Nearly Two Years
Existing home sales rose
A seasonally adjusted annual rate is not a measurement of actual total sales for the year, but rather, the pace of sales at a given time. A seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,317,683 in December means that existing home sales would end the year at that level if homes were sold at the December pace for each month of 2024. For the full year of 2024, actual existing home sales came in at 4,189,268—roughly in line with 2023.
Overall home sales, a metric that includes sales of both existing and newly built homes, rose
It’s worth noting that both existing and overall home sales are lagging indicators. They reflect purchases that, while finalized in December, went under contract during the several months leading up to December. Those several months were a key time in the housing market; housing demand jumped in September as mortgage rates hit a two-year low and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and then jumped again after the uncertainty around the election disappeared.
“Homebuyers pumped the brakes when mortgage rates ticked back up and are now in wait-and-see mode,” said Jesse Landin, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in
Redfin expects mortgage rates to remain elevated and volatile throughout 2025.
December 2024 Housing Market Highlights: |
|||
|
|||
|
December 2024 |
Month-over-month change |
Year-over-year change |
Median sale price |
|
- |
|
Existing home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate |
4,317,683 |
|
|
Pending home sales, seasonally adjusted |
471,888 |
- |
- |
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted |
449,684 |
|
|
New listings, seasonally adjusted |
515,054 |
- |
- |
Total homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings) |
1,723,121 |
- |
|
Months of supply |
2.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
Median days on market |
49 |
6 |
6 |
Share of homes sold above final list price |
|
-2.4 ppts |
-1.4 ppts |
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio |
|
-0.3 ppts |
-0.1 ppts |
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales |
|
1.5 ppts |
1.1 ppts |
|
-0.09 ppts |
-0.1 ppts |
Home Prices Posted the Largest Gain in Almost a Year
The median
Prices continue climbing because there’s still a shortage of homes for sale. New listings fell
Active listings, a measure of all homes on the market, fell
Homes Sold at the Slowest December Pace in Five Years
The typical home that went under contract in December was on the market for 49 days—the slowest December pace since 2019. That’s up from 43 days a year earlier.
Just
One silver lining in a slow housing market: Buyers have more flexibility to bide their time and ask sellers for concessions.
Metro-Level Highlights: December 2024
-
Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in
Cleveland (15% ),Milwaukee (14.5% ) andPhiladelphia (14% ). They rose least in threeFlorida metros:Tampa (0.5% ),Orlando (1.3% ) andJacksonville (1.3% ). -
Pending sales: Pending sales rose most in
Anaheim, CA (9.7% ),Phoenix (9.4% ) andNew Brunswick, NJ (6.9% ). They fell most inNewark, NJ (-12.5% ),New York (-9.3% ) andOrlando (-9.1% ). -
Closed home sales: Home sales rose most in
San Diego (28.4% ),San Jose, CA (25.8% ) andAnaheim (24% ). They fell in three metros:West Palm Beach, FL (-9.8% ),Fort Lauderdale, FL (-3.5% ) andDetroit (-1.3% ). -
New listings: New listings rose most in
San Francisco (26.8% ),Oakland, CA (21.1% ) andAnaheim (16% ). They fell most inSan Antonio (-16.8% ),Newark (-10.6% ) andAustin, TX (-10.2% ). -
Active listings: Active listings rose most in
Cincinnati (37.3% ),Fort Lauderdale (33% ) andSan Diego (26.3% ). They fell most inNewark (-9.5% ),San Francisco (-5.1% ) andSan Antonio (-3.3% ). -
Sold above list price: In
Newark ,60.5% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next cameSan Jose (52.1% ) andNassau County, NY (50.9% ). The lowest shares were inWest Palm Beach (6% ),Miami (6.9% ) andFort Lauderdale (9% ).
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-fall-december-2024
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Source: Redfin