Redfin Corp Stock Price, News & Analysis

Sales of luxury U.S. homes fell a record 44.6% year-over-year ending January 31, 2023, outpacing a 37.5% decline in non-luxury homes, as reported by Redfin. In Miami, luxury sales dropped 68.7%, followed by Nassau-Suffolk County, NY (-62.6%) and Riverside (-59.8%). The slump stems from high mortgage rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty, prompting wealthy buyers to seek alternatives. Despite this, luxury home prices rose 9% to a median of $1.09 million, remaining near their peak. While luxury home supply increased by 7.1%, new listings fell by 6.6%, indicating a continued supply shortage amidst decreased demand.

The latest report from Redfin highlights the impact of elevated mortgage rates on the housing market, with average monthly payments reaching a record high of $2,563, up 29% year-over-year. Despite a 1% decline in home prices, affordability has worsened significantly, with potential homebuyers now able to afford only a $376,000 home on a $2,500 budget, down from $480,000 a year ago. Pending home sales dropped 16.1% year-over-year, and new listings fell 21.7%. The continued rise in mortgage rates signals a challenging environment for both buyers and sellers.

Redfin reports that the share of U.S. homes valued at least $1 million has decreased to 7% from 8.6% in June 2022, reflecting a cooling housing market. This change is attributed to higher mortgage rates, currently at 6.6%, leading to increased monthly payments for buyers. In contrast, Florida sees gains, with 14.4% of Miami homes valued at a million or more, up from 11.5% last year. Coastal cities like San Francisco and Seattle have experienced sharp declines in high-value homes, as tech layoffs and remote work reduce demand. Overall, 70 out of 99 major U.S. metros report an increase in million-dollar homes.

In 2022, only 21% of U.S. homes were affordable for typical households, a decrease from 40% in 2021, marking the lowest share on record. The drop was driven by a 53% decline in affordable listings and rising mortgage rates, now averaging 6.65%. Home prices surged 32% since the pandemic, contributing to the crisis. Black households faced a significant disparity, with only 9% of homes affordable compared to 28% for white households. The Biden administration's cuts to mortgage-insurance rates, effective March 20, aim to assist low-income buyers. Although the landscape is challenging, analysts anticipate improvements in affordability as rates stabilize and incomes rise.

The U.S. home-sale price median dipped 0.6% year-over-year in February, marking its first decline since 2012, amid rising mortgage rates averaging 7.1%. The typical home sold for $350,246 during the four weeks ending February 26. Monthly mortgage payments reached a record high of $2,520, exacerbating affordability issues. Despite a drop in homebuying demand, the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index showed an increase, indicating some recovery from last fall. However, mortgage applications reached their lowest since the 1990s. Home prices are expected to decline slightly further, constrained by limited listings and continued interest in desirable homes.

Redfin reports that the typical U.S. homeowner has spent 12.3 years in their home, down from a peak of 13.4 years in 2020. Despite this decrease, homeowner tenure has nearly doubled over the last two decades, driven by older Americans aging in place and a lack of affordability. Homeowners face record-high mortgage payments, low housing inventory, and are disincentivized to move due to low mortgage rates. California homeowners tend to stay the longest, averaging 18.2 years in Los Angeles. The increasing age of the population and ongoing housing supply issues suggest that homeowner tenure may rise again in the coming years.

A record 25% (24.9%) of home searchers on Redfin.com sought to relocate to different U.S. metros in January 2023, influenced by remote work and high housing costs. This trend indicates an increase from 24.5% in Q4 2022 and 22.8% a year prior. The typical monthly housing payment rose 26% year-over-year, contributing to the affordability crisis. Miami emerged as the top destination, while San Francisco and Los Angeles saw the highest outflows. A significant decline in homebuyers relocating to popular destinations was noted, reflecting a cooling housing market.

Redfin reports a 0.5% increase in pending home sales for January, following December's 1.4% rise. Year-over-year, pending sales are down 29.4%. The median sale price in the U.S. is $383,249, reflecting a 1.4% decline from December but an increase of 1.5% from a year ago. The ongoing affordability crisis persists, alongside limited new listings, which fell 19.9% year-over-year. Closed sales saw a 36.6% drop compared to last year. The average mortgage rate is now 6.5%, contributing to a rising monthly payment of over $500 for typical homebuyers.

The latest report from Redfin reveals that the median U.S. home-sale price has remained stable at $348,000 for the four weeks ending February 19, showing only a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This marks the first time since 2015 that home prices haven’t exceeded last year's levels. High mortgage rates, now nearing 6.5%, have reduced buyer activity, with mortgage applications dropping to the lowest levels since 1995. Despite increased online searches and home tours, serious buyers are hesitant due to affordability concerns. New listings have fallen by 18.8% year-over-year, indicating a tightening supply.