Redfin Corp Stock Price, News & Analysis

Investors Struggle in a Cooling Housing Market

In March, 13.5% of U.S. homes sold by investors were at a loss, reflecting a downturn from February's 14.5% and nearly tripling the previous year’s figures. The average profit margin for homes sold by investors decreased to 45.9% ($145,714) from 55.3% a year ago. Rising mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.39%, have led to higher monthly payments, reducing demand and pushing prices down. Flippers, particularly in cities like Phoenix (30.7% loss) and Las Vegas (28%), are most affected. The data indicates a 46% drop in investor purchases year-over-year during Q4. Investors own 10.1% of new listings, down from a pandemic peak of 12.4%. The trend suggests a significant shift in the real estate landscape, with many investors opting to cut losses as home prices continue to decline.

The typical U.S. homebuyer's monthly housing payment reached a record $2,538, as mortgage rates climbed to 6.39% after five weeks of decline, according to Redfin's latest report. Despite the median home-sale price dropping 2.6% year-over-year, pending home sales decreased 19%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months. Homebuyer Demand Index saw a rise of 3% week-over-week, although it's still 7% lower than last year. Notably, home prices fell in more than half of U.S. metros, with Austin, TX experiencing the steepest decline at -15.1% YoY. New listings declined 21%, as homeowners retain low mortgage rates and resist selling. The shift in demand varies geographically, with some markets seeing multiple offers despite high costs.

Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ: RDFN) is set to release its first-quarter 2023 earnings results on May 4, 2023, after market close. A live conference call will be held at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time to discuss these results, accessible via the Investor Relations website. Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company offering brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. The firm, operational since 2006, has saved its customers over $1.5 billion in commissions and operates in over 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada, employing more than 5,000 people.

Redfin reports a significant decline in the U.S. housing market, with a 3.3% year-over-year drop in median home prices, now at $400,528. March saw pending home sales fall by 26.6%, marking the lowest level since April 2020, as high mortgage rates deterred buyers. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.54% in March, up from 4.17% a year prior. Boise, ID, experienced the most drastic price decline at 15.4% and an alarming 78.8% drop in pending sales year-over-year. New listings also plummeted by 23.3%, causing bidding wars in certain regions despite fewer buyers. Competition remains high, with 44.3% of offers facing competition. Redfin's chief economist highlights the lackluster spring homebuying season due to these trends.

The median asking rent in the U.S. fell by 0.4% in March to $1,937, marking the first annual decline since March 2020. This is the lowest rent level in 13 months, while rents had increased by 17.5% a year prior. Notably, the median rent was 19.9% higher than in March 2020, correlating with wage growth during the same period.

The decline in rents results from a surplus of rental units from a pandemic-related homebuilding boom, combined with economic uncertainties that have dampened demand. Major cities like Austin and Chicago reported significant drops, while Raleigh and Cleveland saw increases.

New listings of homes for sale in the U.S. dropped by 25% year-over-year as of April 9, marking an eight-month streak of significant declines. This has made it challenging for buyers while providing sellers with a competitive edge. The average mortgage rate currently stands at 6.27%, down from November's peak, but homeowners are hesitant to sell due to low existing mortgage rates. Major metropolitan areas, particularly in California, witnessed the steepest declines in listings. Although new listings are down, demand is slightly increasing with mortgage applications up by 8% from the previous week. The median home-sale price has decreased by 2.3% to $364,000, indicating the largest yearly drop in over a decade. Housing inventory remains scarce, exacerbating market challenges.

Redfin has expanded its operations into the Colorado Rockies, enabling homebuyers and sellers in counties like Summit, Eagle, and others to connect with local agents. This growth follows a strong presence in the Denver metro area, where Redfin agents have closed over $7.4 billion in transactions. The company offers unique services such as instant listing updates and a 1% listing fee for clients who buy and sell with them, significantly lower than the standard rates. Redfin's innovative approach includes full-time employed agents and enhanced marketing strategies, resulting in homes listed on their platform receiving 70% more views. Notably, Redfin has saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions since its inception in 2006.

Redfin's report indicates a significant decline in mortgage-rate locks for second homes, dropping 52% from pre-pandemic levels in March. This marks the lowest demand since 2016, with February also showing a steep decline. During the pandemic, second-home purchases peaked at 89% above pre-pandemic marks, driven by low mortgage rates and an influx of affluent buyers seeking vacation properties.

Key factors behind the decline include high mortgage rates, increased loan fees, a cooling rental market, and economic pressures like inflation. The typical second home cost $465,000 in 2022, making it less accessible. With many potential buyers already having purchased during the pandemic boom, current conditions are challenging for new second-home buyers.

Redfin reports a significant decline in new home listings, dropping by 21.8% year-over-year as of April 2, contributing to a tight housing supply despite lower homebuying demand.

Despite rising mortgage rates, homes are still selling quickly, with 47% going under contract within two weeks. The average 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 6.28%, although this remains high compared to previous years.

Year-over-year home sales fell by 19%, driven by declining inventory and buyer reluctance at elevated rates. Home prices nationally decreased by 2.1% to about $362,000, with some metro areas like Austin experiencing declines over 14%.