Redfin Corp - RDFN STOCK NEWS

Redfin's analysis reveals a dramatic increase in housing costs across swing states since the 2020 presidential election. The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in these states has nearly doubled, rising 92% to $2,161. This surge is attributed to both rising home prices (up 40% to $316,063) and higher mortgage rates (currently 6.89%).

Affordability has significantly declined, with only 35.1% of homes listed in swing states being affordable to median-income households, down from 65.5% in 2020. The typical swing-state family now needs to earn $86,421 annually to afford the median-priced home without exceeding 30% of their income on housing costs.

This affordability crisis is a major factor in the 2024 presidential election, with over 90% of adult Gen Zers considering it important in their voting decision. The issue affects all states, with similar trends observed in red and blue states.

Redfin reports that homebuyers with a $3,000 monthly budget have gained $22,500 in purchasing power as mortgage rates dropped to 6.85% from a five-month peak of 7.5% in April. This enables them to afford homes priced at $447,750, up from $425,500. The decline in rates follows a favorable CPI report indicating cooling inflation, which increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by September. Although mortgage rates are decreasing, home prices remain at record highs. Inventory is rising, with new listings up 7% year-over-year and total homes for sale near their highest levels since late 2020. Many homes are sitting on the market longer, giving buyers the opportunity to negotiate for lower prices and other benefits. Redfin's Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather highlights this period as a favorable window for serious buyers due to declining rates and increasing supply, though competition may intensify if rates drop further.

Redfin reports a record high in U.S. median home-sale prices for the ninth consecutive week, reaching $397,482 as of July 7, marking a 4.7% year-over-year increase. Despite elevated mortgage rates suppressing homebuying demand, prices remain high due to historically low inventory. However, signs suggest potential cooling: homes are selling below list price, inventory is rising, and a larger share of listings are stagnating. Pending home sales have dropped 3.5%, and mortgage applications are down 13%. New listings are up 7.3%, and the total homes for sale have increased by 18.3%.

Redfin reports a significant decline in rent prices across Florida's most populous metros. Jacksonville leads with a 12.4% decrease in median asking rent, followed by Tampa at 6%, Orlando at 4.8%, and Miami at 3.8%. This trend is echoed in Austin, TX, where rents dropped 12.6%. These reductions are attributed to the high number of apartments built during the pandemic to meet surging demand, resulting in increased competition among property owners. Nationally, the median apartment asking rent rose 0.7% year-over-year in June to $1,654, the highest since October 2022. Despite rising demand, rent growth is due to a surge in newly built apartments. The apartment vacancy rate has increased to 7.8%. Conversely, areas like Virginia Beach and Cincinnati saw rent increases exceeding 12% due to new constructions.

The latest Redfin report reveals a significant 30% decrease in permits for building U.S. apartments since the pandemic. Builders obtained permits for 13 multifamily units per 10,000 people in 2024, down from an average of 18 in 2021-2023. This decline stems from higher interest rates and an existing surplus of multifamily units. Less than half of new apartments completed by the end of last year were rented within three months.

Despite the overall slowdown, Cape Coral, FL, and Austin, TX, top the list for new permits. Several metros, especially in the Sun Belt, continue to see notable permitting activity due to ongoing demand. In contrast, places like Stockton and Bakersfield, CA, saw minimal to no new permits.

While multifamily construction has slowed nationally, 25 U.S. metros have experienced a rise in permits. The report highlights that rent prices have stabilized, with a slight increase of less than 1% year-over-year. Cities with high pandemic-era construction like Austin and Jacksonville are seeing rent declines due to increased competition among property owners.

Redfin reports that U.S. home prices have hit a new all-time high with a 5% year-over-year increase, reaching a median sale price of $397,954 as of June 30, 2024. Concurrently, pending home sales declined by 4.6%, marking the largest drop since February. New listings rose by 10%, the biggest jump in two months. Mortgage rates have shown a slight decline, resulting in a $100 decrease in monthly housing payments compared to their April peak. Key metrics such as the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index and Google searches for 'home for sale' have also shown decreases.

Some metro areas like Anaheim, CA, and Newark, NJ, saw significant increases in median sale prices, while others like Austin, TX, experienced declines. Pending sales saw the largest increases in San Jose, CA, and the largest decreases in West Palm Beach, FL. The report also highlights a notable rise in new listings in metros like San Jose and Seattle.

Redfin's latest report reveals that newly built apartments in the U.S. are filling up at the slowest pace since the start of 2020. Only 47% of newly constructed apartments completed in Q4 were rented within three months, a drop from 60% a year earlier. The market is seeing a high supply of new apartments, resulting in increased competition among building owners and limiting rent price hikes. The rental vacancy rate has been steady at 6.6% for the past three quarters, marking the highest level since 2021. Median U.S. apartment rents rose 0.8% year over year in May 2024, reaching the highest level since October 2022. However, the affordability crisis remains, with renters needing an income of $66,120 to afford the median-priced apartment—$11,408 more than the typical U.S. renter's earnings. Small apartments have seen the largest rent declines, with new studio rents dropping 20.9%. The press release highlights the importance of sustained housing construction to ease the affordability crisis.

Redfin reports that Black families can only afford starter homes in 10 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, compared to 32 metros for white families. A typical Black family would need to spend over 40% of their income on housing nationally. In Detroit, the most affordable metro, Black families spend 16% of their income on a starter home costing $66,000. In contrast, in San Francisco, they would spend 104% of their income on a starter home priced nearly $1 million. Nationwide, Black families spend 41% of their income on housing, whereas white families spend 26%. The gap stems from systemic racial income and wealth disparities, exacerbated by increasing housing costs and mortgage rejections for Black buyers. Although the homeownership gap persists, the share of mortgages taken out by Black homebuyers has recently increased.

For the first time since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the typical U.S. home sold for less than its list price during the four weeks ending June 23, 2024, Redfin reported. Homes sold for 0.3% below asking price, compared to exact list price a year ago. Only 32.3% of homes sold above asking price, the lowest in any June since 2020. Sellers are also dropping prices more frequently, with nearly 7% reducing prices, the highest level since November 2022. New listings increased by 8.2% year-over-year while pending sales dropped 4.3%, the largest decline in four months. Over 60% of homes stayed on the market for at least a month. Median home-sale prices hit an all-time high of $397,250, up 4.9% year-over-year; however, buyers are deterred by high mortgage rates, averaging near 7%. Redfin suggests both buyers and sellers should manage expectations in the current market.