Affordable Midwest and East Coast Markets Are Holding Up Best as the U.S. Housing Market Cools

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin's recent report highlights that housing markets in affordable Midwest and East Coast areas are stabilizing amid rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Lake County, IL tops the list of resilient markets, followed by Albany, NY, and Chicago. The majority of these markets feature lower-than-national median home prices. Despite challenges, homebuyer demand remains strong, with notable declines in home sales and price drops compared to last year, hinting at a slower cooling trend in these regions.

Positive

• Lake County, IL, Albany, NY, and Chicago are among the top markets performing well.
• Median sale prices in stable markets are below the national median of $407,000, making them attractive for buyers.

Negative

• Home sales in Lake County and Chicago fell approximately 36% and 40% year-over-year, respectively.
• There is an increased likelihood of deals falling through as sellers expect to sell at previous high prices.

Redfin reports Chicago, Albany and Milwaukee are among the housing markets holding up better than others as the U.S. faces high mortgage rates and an uncertain economy

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Housing markets in relatively affordable Midwest and East Coast metro areas are holding up better than anywhere else in the country, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Lake County, IL—located about 45 miles north of Chicago—is holding up better than any other metro in this analysis. It’s followed by Albany, NY and Chicago. Rounding out the top 10 are New Haven, CT; Milwaukee; New Brunswick, NJ; Elgin, IL; Bridgeport, CT; Pittsburgh and El Paso, TX.

Nine of the 10 housing markets holding up best are located either in the Midwest or on the East Coast. The typical home in eight of the 10 markets costs less than the national median sale price of $407,000; New Brunswick ($480,000) and Bridgeport ($590,000) are the exceptions.

“Homes in places like Chicago and Milwaukee certainly got more expensive during the pandemic homebuying boom, but they’re still affordable compared with the rest of the country,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “They’re slow to feel the impacts of economic headwinds like inflation and the Fed raising interest rates because the relatively affordable home prices make them attractive to house hunters seeking deals, and homes are already priced low enough that there’s not much room to fall. These markets don’t have much volatility.”

The lower the home price, the lower the dollar impact on monthly mortgage payments. With today’s 6% mortgage rates, the typical monthly payment on a $310,000 home—Chicago’s median sale price—is $2,000. That’s up from about $1,600 with the 3% rates common at the beginning of the year—a sizeable increase, but smaller than the $1,100 monthly-payment uptick on the typical home in Seattle, where the housing market is cooling quicker than any other U.S. metro.

On the other end of the spectrum, almost all of the housing markets cooling fastest are West Coast metros that have long been expensive or pandemic migration hotspots that went from affordable to not-so-affordable over the last two years.

In places like Illinois and upstate New York, homebuyer demand is almost as strong as earlier in the year

Measures of homebuyer demand and competition are nearly as strong as they were in the beginning of the year in the housing markets cooling slowest.

In Lake County, where the typical home sells for about $315,000, about 36% fewer homes sold within two weeks in August than a year earlier, similar to the 43% year-over-year decline in February. The median price per square foot was up 9% from a year earlier in August, smaller than the 16% annual gain in February but still significant. Those numbers indicate that homebuyers are in a similar position as they were earlier in the year, with homes selling at a similar pace and prices holding relatively steady.

In neighboring Chicago, roughly 40% fewer homes sold within two weeks in August than a year earlier, about the same as the year-over-year decline in February. And there were about 6% fewer price drops in August than a year earlier, with 23% of home sellers dropping their price in August, down from 29% a year earlier. That’s similar to the 7% year-over-year decline in February (8% of sellers dropped their price that month, down from 15% a year earlier).

“There are still plenty of buyers looking for homes; many of them are people who didn’t stand a chance in last year’s competitive market but are relieved to see lower prices and fewer bidding wars,” said Chicago Redfin agent Ashley Arzer. “They’re willing to purchase a home despite rising rates because they finally have a window of opportunity to get an offer accepted. There are also a fair amount of sellers who want to list their home before a potential economic downturn.”

“Still, deals are more likely to fall through than last year,” Arzer continued. “Some sellers expect to sell their home for the same price that their neighbor got in the spring, and they may not accept lower offers. And buyers are more willing to walk away if they run into a problem during the inspection period because their financial commitment is bigger due to high rates.”

U.S. Housing Markets Cooling Slowest, August 2022 The rankings in this report are based on changes in year-over-year housing-market stats from February 2022 to August 2022. The markets ranked here are those that cooled slowest during that time period.
Rank	U.S. metro Area	Median sale price	Change in PPSF, YoY	Change in inventory, YoY	Change in price drops, YoY	Change in pending sales, YoY	Change in sale-to-list ratio, YoY	Change in share of homes off market in two weeks, YoY
1	Lake County, IL	$315,000	-6.8 pts.	-29.7 pts.	-3.3 pts.	30.8 pts.	-0.8 pts.	6.8 pts.
2	Albany, NY	$305,000	16.3 pts.	0 pts.	4.6 pts.	5.3 pts.	-1.1 pts.	-5.3 pts.
3	Chicago, IL	$310,000	-6.2 pts.	-28.6 pts.	1.2 pts.	33.4 pts.	-1.3 pts.	-1.9 pts.
4	New Haven, CT	$320,000	-2.2 pts.	0.7 pts.	3.5 pts.	0.3 pts.	-1.1 pts.	-7.2 pts.
5	Milwaukee, WI	$289,900	-2.5 pts.	-30.3 pts.	-8.3 pts.	-21.2 pts.	-1.1 pts.	0.8 pts.
6 (tie)	New Brunswick, NJ	$479,750	-2.9 pts.	-9.4 pts.	5 pts.	4.7 pts.	-2.3 pts.	-1.6 pts.
6 (tie)	Elgin, IL	$309,950	-3.9 pts.	-55.4 pts.	3.8 pts.	28.9 pts.	-2.3 pts.	-7.9 pts.
8	Bridgeport, CT	$590,000	7 pts.	3.3 pts.	5.5 pts.	-9.5 pts.	-0.5 pts.	-10.3 pts.
9	Pittsburgh, PA	$225,250	-0.3 pts.	-4.9 pts.	3.7 pts.	-26.2 pts.	-1.3 pts.	2.4 pts.
10	El Paso, TX	$240,000	-0.6 pts.	32.9 pts.	7.7 pts.	10.9 pts.	-1.4 pts.	-4.6 pts.
11	Rochester, NY	$215,000	-2.6 pts.	-0.7 pts.	5.7 pts.	-11.9 pts.	-2 pts.	0.4 pts.
12 (tie)	Detroit, MI	$188,000	-2.4 pts.	-2.4 pts.	6.7 pts.	5.2 pts.	-2.2 pts.	-13 pts.
12 (tie)	Newark, NJ	$526,635	1.9 pts.	4.8 pts.	1.6 pts.	-16.5 pts.	-0.9 pts.	-13.2 pts.
12 (tie)	Cincinnati, OH	$260,600	-1.8 pts.	-0.9 pts.	6 pts.	-12 pts.	-2.3 pts.	-3.1 pts.
15	Camden, NJ	$305,000	-5.4 pts.	-7.3 pts.	11.3 pts.	-4.3 pts.	-1.4 pts.	-5.8 pts.
16	Akron, OH	$210,000	1.2 pts.	-5.3 pts.	11.2 pts.	-1.4 pts.	-2.3 pts.	-10.4 pts.
17	Baltimore, MD	$365,000	-3.3 pts.	-10.3 pts.	6.2 pts.	-17.4 pts.	-1.3 pts.	-9.3 pts.
18	Hartford, CT	$310,000	-3.9 pts.	-1 pts.	3.9 pts.	-17.6 pts.	-1.6 pts.	-7.2 pts.
19	Virginia Beach, VA	$312,559	-2.7 pts.	3.3 pts.	-3.1 pts.	-18.2 pts.	-1.9 pts.	-9.3 pts.
20	Buffalo, NY	$240,000	-8 pts.	3.6 pts.	8 pts.	5.4 pts.	-2 pts.	-3.4 pts.

To view the full report, including methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-holding-up-best-2022

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220927005422/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Ally Braun, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What did Redfin's report say about the housing market in August 2022?

Redfin's report indicated that housing markets in affordable Midwest and East Coast areas, including Lake County, Albany, and Chicago, are holding up better than others amid economic challenges.

Which housing markets are performing best according to Redfin?

According to Redfin, the top-performing markets include Lake County, IL, Albany, NY, and Chicago, with affordable home prices attracting buyers.

How have home sales changed in Lake County and Chicago from last year?

Home sales in Lake County fell by 36% and in Chicago by 40% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in activity.

What is the typical home price in Lake County, IL?

The typical home price in Lake County, IL is about $315,000, which is lower than the national median sale price.

What challenges are buyers facing in the current housing market?

Buyers are facing challenges such as rising mortgage rates and sellers' expectations to maintain high selling prices, leading to more deal fall-throughs.