30% of Homebuyers Looked to Move Metros in the Third Quarter, the Lowest Share Since 2020

Rhea-AI Summary

In Q3 2021, 30.2% of Redfin.com users sought to relocate to different metro areas, marking a decline from 31.1% in Q2 2021. Despite this decline, interest in relocation remains above levels from a year ago (29.2%) and pre-pandemic estimates (~26%). The analysis, based on 3.3 million Redfin users, revealed that Miami, Phoenix, and Sacramento were the top destinations. While the overall housing market shows signs of cooling, experts expect relocation rates to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels due to ongoing remote work trends.

Positive

• None.

Negative

• Decline in relocation percentage from 31.1% in Q2 2021 to 30.2% in Q3 2021.
• Cooling housing market with decreasing homebuyer bidding wars and price growth.
• Significant drop in net inflows for Sacramento residents searching from outside, from 50% to 41.7%.

SEATTLE, Oct. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —Nationwide, 30.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metropolitan area in the third quarter of 2021, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This is down from 31.1% in the second quarter, marking the second-straight quarter of declines following four-consecutive quarters of increases.

Although the percentage of users moving to a new metro area in the third quarter declined, interest in relocation during the third quarter remained higher than it was a year earlier (29.2%) and before the pandemic (~26%).

The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about 3.3 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 125 metro areas in the third quarter, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user's searches.

The slowdown in relocations has coincided with a cooling of the overall housing market: Homebuyer bidding wars, home-price growth and home-sales growth have all been falling. It's worth noting that the housing market typically slows at this time of year.

While the migration rate has slipped slightly in recent months, it's unlikely to fall back to pre-pandemic levels any time in the foreseeable future, according to Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr.

"We expect Americans to continue relocating at a higher rate than they did before the coronavirus pandemic," Marr said. "As employers fight to retain talent during the ongoing labor shortage, they'll face mounting pressure to introduce permanent flexible-work policies that will give more workers the option to move where they want. We're also starting to see a resurgence in demand for vacation homes, which could help sustain the relatively high rate of house hunters searching outside their home metro."

Miami, Phoenix and Sacramento Are the Top Destinations for Homebuyers Looking to Move

Miami, Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Tampa were the most popular migration destinations of any major U.S. metros in the third quarter, meaning they had the largest net inflows. A net inflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.

Metros that are warmer and more affordable than major job centers like New York and San Francisco often top the list of most popular migration destinations. They've become even more sought after during the pandemic because remote workers have been able to prioritize housing costs, space and weather over commute times.

In Sacramento, 41.7% of Redfin.com user searches came from outside of the metro in the third quarter, down from 50% a year earlier. San Francisco was the top origin for people searching for homes there.

"We're not seeing as many buyers in Sacramento as we were at the height of the pandemic, but most of the buyers I do work with are still coming from the Bay Area," said Sacramento Redfin real estate agent Dawn Marie Brown. "Remote work has become the norm for a lot of people—especially Silicon Valley tech workers—so they're moving here to take advantage of the scenic countryside and high-quality schools."

Pollock Pines and Pleasant Valley—neighborhoods east of Sacramento that were evacuated due to the Caldor Fire this year—are two areas that have recently become less popular, Brown added.

"Before the fire, there were so many people moving in from the Bay Area and overbidding on homes. Buyers in many towns east of Sacramento were offering tens of thousands of dollars over the asking price and still losing. That's just not happening anymore. I do expect demand to rebound once the memories of the fires become more distant."

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank	Metro*	Net Inflow, Q3 2021†	Net Inflow, Q3 2020	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q3 2021	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q3 2020	Top Origin	Top Out-of- State Origin
1	Miami, FL	11,872	3,884	32.3%	25.9%	New York, NY	New York, NY
2	Phoenix, AZ	9,959	8,302	35.1%	34.2%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
3	Sacramento, CA	9,250	11,728	41.7%	50.0%	San Francisco, CA	Reno, NV
4	Las Vegas, NV	7,777	8,473	41.3%	49.0%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
5	Tampa, FL	7,324	4,856	46.1%	55.1%	Orlando, FL	New York, NY
6	Cape Coral, FL	5,260	3,569	68.5%	75.4%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
7	San Antonio, TX	5,235	3,089	41.5%	42.9%	Houston, TX	Los Angeles, CA
8	North Port, FL	4,907	2,832	67.1%	77.1%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
9	Atlanta, GA	4,769	7,300	19.6%	26.1%	New York, NY	New York, NY
10	Dallas, TX	4,664	6,489	23.6%	29.4%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in the third quarter 2021 †Among the 3.3 million users sampled for this analysis only

San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York Are the Top Places House Hunters Are Looking to Move Away From

San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston saw more Redfin.com users looking to leave than any other major metro areas in the third quarter, meaning they had the biggest net outflows. A net outflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.

Still, three of the 10 top metros that people looked to leave in the third quarter—New York, Chicago and Denver—actually saw fewer people depart than a year earlier. For example, New York saw a net outflow of 30,384 Redfin.com users in the third quarter, down from a net outflow of 48,233 during the same period in 2020.

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank	Metro*	Net Outflow, Q3 2021†	Net Outflow, Q3 2020‡	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q3 2021	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q3 2020	Top Destination	Top Out-of- State Destination
1	San Francisco, CA	61,533	43,667	25.2%	24.8%	Sacramento, CA	Seattle, WA
2	Los Angeles, CA	37,905	23,835	18.3%	17.3%	San Diego, CA	Phoenix, AZ
3	New York, NY	30,384	48,233	27.1%	35.8%	Philadelphia, PA	Philadelphia, PA
4	Washington, DC	19,706	14,247	14.9%	13.6%	Salisbury, MD	Salisbury, MD
5	Boston, MA	10,156	-205	16.3%	12.2%	Portland, ME	Portland, ME
6	Chicago, IL	5,303	6,313	12.1%	12.0%	South Bend, IN	South Bend, IN
7	Denver, CO	5,241	5,840	26.8%	26.9%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
8	Seattle, WA	4,455	4,187	14.6%	13.9%	Phoenix, AZ	Phoenix, AZ
9	Detroit, MI	4,212	845	28.6%	21.8%	Cleveland, OH	Cleveland, OH
10	Minneapolis, MN	2,418	-919	22.0%	18.2%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in the third quarter of 2021 †Among the 3.3 million users sampled for this analysis only ‡Negative values indicate a net inflow

To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/q3-2021-housing-migration-trends/ 

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

 

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SOURCE Redfin

FAQ

What does the recent report indicate about relocation trends for RDFN?

The report shows a decline in relocation interest among Redfin users, with 30.2% seeking to move in Q3 2021.

How does the current relocation rate compare to previous years for Redfin (RDFN)?

Interest in relocation is higher than a year ago (29.2%) and before the pandemic (~26%), despite a recent decline.

What were the most popular metros for relocating homebuyers according to RDFN?

Miami, Phoenix, and Sacramento were the top migration destinations for homebuyers in Q3 2021.

What is the outlook for relocation trends in the real estate market for RDFN?

Experts believe relocation rates will stay above pre-pandemic levels due to persistent remote work opportunities.

What challenges is the housing market currently facing according to the RDFN report?

The housing market is experiencing a cooling trend with falling buyer competition and home price growth.