Shifts in Trade and National Security Priorities Split Globalization Into Two Tracks, PGIM Research Finds
PGIM, Prudential Financial's (NYSE: PRU) $1.38 trillion investment management arm, released new research showing globalization has split into two distinct tracks. Despite recent trade tensions, approximately 75% of the global economy remains on a 'fast track' of globalization, while a smaller but critical segment is experiencing deglobalization.
The research, titled 'A New Era of Globalization,' reveals that about 80% of global trade occurs outside U.S. borders. Key investment opportunities exist in:
- AI and advanced semiconductors, with companies like TSMC diversifying geographically
- Electric vehicles, with Tesla and BYD expanding into new markets
- U.S.-Mexico border industrial real estate benefiting from near-shoring
- Metals and minerals, particularly copper mining companies
The study identifies promising near-shoring destinations including Chile, Peru, Brazil, Australia, India, Vietnam, Poland, Czechia, and Morocco, each offering specific advantages in manufacturing, minerals, or strategic industries.
PGIM, la divisione di gestione degli investimenti di Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) del valore di 1,38 trilioni di dollari, ha pubblicato una nuova ricerca che mostra come la globalizzazione si sia divisa in due percorsi distinti. Nonostante le recenti tensioni commerciali, circa il 75% dell'economia globale rimane su un 'percorso veloce' di globalizzazione, mentre un segmento più piccolo ma critico sta vivendo un processo di deglobalizzazione.
La ricerca, intitolata 'Una Nuova Era di Globalizzazione', rivela che circa l'80% del commercio globale avviene al di fuori dei confini statunitensi. Esistono opportunità di investimento chiave in:
- AI e semiconduttori avanzati, con aziende come TSMC che si diversificano geograficamente
- Veicoli elettrici, con Tesla e BYD che si espandono in nuovi mercati
- Immobili industriali al confine tra Stati Uniti e Messico che beneficiano del near-shoring
- Metalli e minerali, in particolare le aziende minerarie di rame
Lo studio identifica destinazioni promettenti per il near-shoring, tra cui Cile, Perù, Brasile, Australia, India, Vietnam, Polonia, Repubblica Ceca e Marocco, ognuna delle quali offre vantaggi specifici nella produzione, nei minerali o nelle industrie strategiche.
PGIM, la división de gestión de inversiones de Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) con un valor de 1.38 billones de dólares, lanzó una nueva investigación que muestra cómo la globalización se ha dividido en dos caminos distintos. A pesar de las recientes tensiones comerciales, aproximadamente el 75% de la economía global sigue en una 'vía rápida' de globalización, mientras que un segmento más pequeño pero crítico está experimentando desglobalización.
La investigación, titulada 'Una Nueva Era de Globalización', revela que alrededor del 80% del comercio global ocurre fuera de las fronteras de EE. UU. Existen oportunidades clave de inversión en:
- IA y semiconductores avanzados, con empresas como TSMC diversificándose geográficamente
- Vehículos eléctricos, con Tesla y BYD expandiéndose en nuevos mercados
- Bienes raíces industriales en la frontera entre EE. UU. y México que se benefician del near-shoring
- Metales y minerales, en particular las empresas mineras de cobre
El estudio identifica destinos prometedores para el near-shoring, incluidos Chile, Perú, Brasil, Australia, India, Vietnam, Polonia, República Checa y Marruecos, cada uno de los cuales ofrece ventajas específicas en manufactura, minerales o industrias estratégicas.
PGIM, 프루덴셜 파이낸셜(NYSE: PRU)의 1.38조 달러 규모의 투자 관리 부문이 새로운 연구 결과를 발표했습니다. 이 연구에 따르면, 세계화는 두 가지 뚜렷한 경로로 나뉘고 있습니다. 최근 무역 긴장에도 불구하고, 전 세계 경제의 약 75%는 '빠른 경로'의 세계화에 남아 있으며, 더 작지만 중요한 세그먼트는 탈세계화를 경험하고 있습니다.
'새로운 세계화의 시대'라는 제목의 이 연구는 전 세계 무역의 약 80%가 미국 국경 밖에서 발생한다고 밝혔습니다. 주요 투자 기회는 다음과 같습니다:
- AI 및 첨단 반도체, TSMC와 같은 기업들이 지리적으로 다양화하고 있습니다
- 전기차, 테슬라와 BYD가 새로운 시장으로 확장하고 있습니다
- 미국-멕시코 국경의 산업용 부동산이 니어쇼어링의 혜택을 보고 있습니다
- 금속 및 광물, 특히 구리 광산 기업
이 연구는 칠레, 페루, 브라질, 호주, 인도, 베트남, 폴란드, 체코, 모로코와 같은 유망한 니어쇼어링 목적지를 식별하며, 각각 제조, 광물 또는 전략 산업에서 특정 이점을 제공합니다.
PGIM, la branche de gestion d'investissements de Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) d'une valeur de 1,38 trillion de dollars, a publié une nouvelle recherche montrant que la mondialisation s'est scindée en deux voies distinctes. Malgré les récentes tensions commerciales, environ 75% de l'économie mondiale reste sur une 'voie rapide' de mondialisation, tandis qu'un segment plus petit mais critique connaît une démondialisation.
La recherche, intitulée 'Une Nouvelle Ère de la Mondialisation', révèle qu'environ 80% du commerce mondial se déroule en dehors des frontières américaines. Des opportunités d'investissement clés existent dans :
- IA et semi-conducteurs avancés, avec des entreprises comme TSMC se diversifiant géographiquement
- Véhicules électriques, avec Tesla et BYD s'étendant à de nouveaux marchés
- Immobilier industriel à la frontière américano-mexicaine bénéficiant du nearshoring
- Métaux et minéraux, en particulier les entreprises minières de cuivre
L'étude identifie des destinations prometteuses pour le nearshoring, notamment le Chili, le Pérou, le Brésil, l'Australie, l'Inde, le Vietnam, la Pologne, la République tchèque et le Maroc, chacune offrant des avantages spécifiques dans la fabrication, les minéraux ou les industries stratégiques.
PGIM, die 1,38 Billionen Dollar schwere Investmentmanagement-Sparte von Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU), hat eine neue Forschung veröffentlicht, die zeigt, dass sich die Globalisierung in zwei unterschiedliche Bahnen aufgeteilt hat. Trotz der jüngsten Handelskonflikte bleibt etwa 75% der globalen Wirtschaft auf einem 'schnellen Weg' der Globalisierung, während ein kleinerer, aber kritischer Sektor eine Deglobalisierung erlebt.
Die Forschung mit dem Titel 'Eine Neue Ära der Globalisierung' zeigt, dass etwa 80% des globalen Handels außerhalb der US-Grenzen stattfindet. Wichtige Investitionsmöglichkeiten bestehen in:
- KI und fortschrittlichen Halbleitern, wobei Unternehmen wie TSMC geografisch diversifizieren
- Elektrofahrzeugen, wobei Tesla und BYD in neue Märkte expandieren
- Industrieimmobilien an der US-mexikanischen Grenze, die vom Nearshoring profitieren
- Metallen und Mineralien, insbesondere Kupferbergbauunternehmen
Die Studie identifiziert vielversprechende Nearshoring-Ziele wie Chile, Peru, Brasilien, Australien, Indien, Vietnam, Polen, Tschechien und Marokko, die jeweils spezifische Vorteile in der Fertigung, bei Mineralien oder in strategischen Industrien bieten.
- PGIM's substantial assets under management of $1.38 trillion demonstrate strong market position
- Research identifies multiple growth opportunities in strategic sectors (AI, EVs, semiconductors)
- Identification of new investment opportunities in emerging near-shoring destinations
- Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions creating market volatility
- Fragmentation in advanced computer chips market due to US-China rivalry
- Supply constraints in critical metals sector relative to projected demand
“Rising geopolitical tensions and expanding trade restrictions may appear to signal the globalization pendulum has swung hard in the opposite direction, pitting national interests against a shared global good. Yet the reality is far more nuanced.” -- Shehriyar Antia, Head of Thematic Research, PGIM
For investors, this “dual-track” world offers new opportunities and risks across countries and industries such as AI, high-end semiconductors, 5G telecommunication networks, critical minerals, fossil fuels, electric vehicles and military technology, highlighting the need for stress-testing portfolios and managing strategic investments within a dynamic and fragmenting global economy.
In “A New Era of Globalization,” PGIM’s Megatrends research team dives into the concept of this dual-track globalization era, finding that despite recent tariff activity and the prospect of a prolonged trade war, around
“Rising geopolitical tensions and expanding trade restrictions may appear to signal the globalization pendulum has swung hard in the opposite direction, pitting national interests against a shared global good. Yet the reality is far more nuanced,” said Shehriyar Antia, head of Thematic Research at PGIM. “Even if America’s ‘small yard’ of protected industries grows larger, roughly
Investment opportunities exist despite new risks in trade and supply chains
Investors shouldn’t ignore industries on the decelerating track of globalization simply because of the presence of tariffs and industrial policy. Instead, they should consider the structural advantages that specific companies and parts of the value chain may have over others:
Artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductors – The great power rivalry between
Electric vehicles – Manufacturers such as Tesla and China’s BYD have taken an early lead as the world shifts to EVs. Despite facing steep tariffs in
Metals and minerals – Projected long-term demand for metals like copper, critical to several major industries, currently exceeds supply. Two pure-play copper miners — Ivanhoe Mines and Ero Copper — may offer solid growth prospects, while Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan are large diversified producers with economies of scale.
Identifying national winners
Investors may find attractive opportunities in countries well-positioned to become near-shoring candidates — with existing manufacturing capabilities, privileged access to free-trade zones or comparative advantages in their business environment and labor costs:
-
Chile andPeru as key suppliers of high-demand minerals such as lithium and copper. -
Brazil for rapidly ramping up its mining of critical minerals, going from zero exports to becoming the world’s fifth-largest exporter of lithium in less than two years.
-
Australia for broad metals and minerals. -
India for scaling advanced electronics and pharmaceuticals. -
Vietnam for its low-cost manufacturing base in apparel and electronics.
-
Poland and Czechia as near-shoring hubs for EU manufacturers competing with Western Europe’s higher production costs. -
Morocco for pharma and auto supply chain operations relocated closer toEurope .
“Protectionist trade policies and industrial policies are firmly back in fashion and creating real turbulence in global markets,” said Taimur Hyat, PGIM’s chief operating officer. “Over the long term, however, producing goods where they can be made most inexpensively and efficiently remains a compelling force for firms and their investors, making it likely that globalization will prevail for industries making up the majority of the global economy that do not easily fit into a national security narrative.”
For more, read “A New Era of Globalization: Shifting Opportunities in a Dual-Track World,” or visit pgim.com/megatrends for additional insights for investors.
ABOUT PGIM
PGIM is the global asset management business of Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE: PRU). In 41 offices across 19 countries,* our more than 1,450 investment professionals serve both retail and institutional clients around the world.
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Quinn Ludwicki
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quinn.ludwicki@pgim.com
Source: Prudential Financial, Inc.
FAQ
What percentage of global economy remains on fast-track globalization according to PGIM's research?
Which key investment sectors does PGIM identify in their dual-track globalization report?
Which countries does PGIM highlight as promising near-shoring destinations?
What percentage of global trade occurs outside U.S. borders according to PGIM's analysis?
