LG&E and KU forecast load growth due to data centers and economic development
LG&E and KU have filed their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the Kentucky Public Service Commission, forecasting significant load growth due to data centers and economic development. Despite energy efficiency measures, the utilities expect system load to increase by 30% to 45% by 2032 compared to 2024. To meet this demand, they recommend building two new natural gas combined-cycle generation units, installing 900 megawatts of battery storage, adding 500 megawatts of solar, and implementing environmental compliance technologies at existing plants. The plan also considers retiring some units by 2035 and presents an enhanced solar plan if requested by customers or if solar prices become more competitive.
LG&E e KU hanno presentato il loro Piano di Risorse Integrato (IRP) alla Commissione Pubblica dei Servizi del Kentucky, prevedendo una significativa crescita della domanda a causa dei data center e dello sviluppo economico. Nonostante le misure di efficienza energetica, le utility si aspettano che il carico di sistema aumenti del 30% al 45% entro il 2032 rispetto al 2024. Per soddisfare questa domanda, raccomandano di costruire due nuove unità di generazione a ciclo combinato a gas naturale, installare 900 megawatt di stoccaggio a batteria, aggiungere 500 megawatt di energia solare e implementare tecnologie di conformità ambientale negli impianti esistenti. Il piano considera anche la possibilità di ritirare alcune unità entro il 2035 e presenta un piano solare migliorato se richiesto dai clienti o se i prezzi dell'energia solare diventano più competitivi.
LG&E y KU han presentado su Plan de Recursos Integrado (IRP) a la Comisión de Servicios Públicos de Kentucky, pronosticando un crecimiento significativo de la carga debido a los centros de datos y al desarrollo económico. A pesar de las medidas de eficiencia energética, las empresas esperan que la carga del sistema aumente entre un 30% y un 45% para el 2032 en comparación con 2024. Para satisfacer esta demanda, recomiendan construir dos nuevas unidades de generación combinada a gas natural, instalar 900 megavatios de almacenamiento en baterías, agregar 500 megavatios de energía solar e implementar tecnologías de cumplimiento ambiental en las plantas existentes. El plan también considera retirar algunas unidades para el 2035 y presenta un plan solar mejorado si los clientes lo solicitan o si los precios solares se vuelven más competitivos.
LG&E와 KU는 켄터키 공공 서비스 위원회에 통합 자원 계획 (IRP)을 제출하였으며, 데이터 센터와 경제 개발로 인한 상당한 부하 증가를 예측하고 있습니다. 에너지 효율성 조치에도 불구하고, 공공 서비스 기업들은 2024년과 비교하여 2032년까지 30%에서 45% 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 이 수요를 충족하기 위해 그들은 두 개의 새로운 천연가스 복합 발전 유닛을 건설하고, 900메가와트의 배터리 저장소를 설치하며, 500메가와트의 태양광 발전을 추가하고, 기존 발전소에 환경 준수 기술을 구현할 것을 권장합니다. 또한, 이 계획은 2035년까지 일부 유닛을 퇴역하는 것을 고려하고, 고객 요청 시 또는 태양광 가격이 더 경쟁력이 있을 경우 향상된 태양광 계획을 제시합니다.
LG&E et KU ont soumis leur Plan Intégré de Ressources (IRP) à la Commission des Services Publics du Kentucky, prévoyant une croissance significative de la charge en raison des data centers et du développement économique. Malgré les mesures d'efficacité énergétique, les entreprises s'attendent à ce que la charge du système augmente de 30% à 45% d'ici 2032 par rapport à 2024. Pour répondre à cette demande, elles recommandent de construire deux nouvelles unités de production combinées au gaz naturel, d'installer 900 mégawatts de stockage par batterie, d'ajouter 500 mégawatts d'énergie solaire et de mettre en œuvre des technologies de conformité environnementale dans les installations existantes. Le plan envisage également de retirer certaines unités d'ici 2035 et propose un plan solaire amélioré si demandé par les clients ou si les prix solaires deviennent plus compétitifs.
LG&E und KU haben ihren integrierten Ressourcenplan (IRP) bei der Kentucky Public Service Commission eingereicht und erwarten ein erhebliches Wachstum der Last aufgrund von Rechenzentren und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. Trotz Maßnahmen zur Energieeffizienz rechnen die Versorgungsunternehmen damit, dass die Systemlast bis 2032 um 30 % bis 45 % gegenüber 2024 zunehmen wird. Um diese Nachfrage zu decken, empfehlen sie den Bau von zwei neuen Erdgas-Kombikraftwerken, die Installation von 900 Megawatt Batteriespeicher, die Hinzufügung von 500 Megawatt Solarenergie und die Implementierung von Technologien zur Einhaltung von Umweltvorschriften in bestehenden Anlagen. Der Plan berücksichtigt auch die Stilllegung einiger Einheiten bis 2035 und bietet einen verbesserten Solarplan, falls dies von den Kunden angefordert wird oder die Solarpreise wettbewerbsfähiger werden.
- Forecasted system load increase of 30% to 45% by 2032 due to economic development
- Planned addition of two new natural gas combined-cycle generation units
- Installation of 900 megawatts of battery storage
- Addition of 500 megawatts of solar capacity
- Potential for enhanced solar plan with up to 1000 megawatts by 2032
- Retirement of Mill Creek Generating Station Units 3 and 4 and E. W. Brown Generating Station Unit 3 by 2035
- Uncertainties around environmental regulations impacting future plans
- Significant capital investment required for new generation and environmental compliance technologies
Insights
The IRP filing by LG&E and KU reveals significant projected load growth, primarily driven by data centers and economic development. This forecast of a 30-45% increase in system load by 2032 is substantial and will likely necessitate major infrastructure investments.
The utilities' proposed plan includes a mix of natural gas, battery storage and solar installations, indicating a strategic shift towards more flexible and cleaner energy sources. The potential retirement of coal units (Mill Creek and E.W. Brown) by 2035 aligns with broader industry trends towards decarbonization.
Notably, the enhanced solar plan option caters to data center customers with aggressive carbon goals, potentially accelerating the transition to renewables. This flexibility in planning demonstrates the utilities' responsiveness to changing market demands and regulatory pressures.
For PPL , the parent company of LG&E and KU, this growth forecast and investment plan could translate to increased revenue opportunities and capital expenditures in the coming years, potentially impacting future earnings and stock performance positively.
The IRP filing is a important regulatory step that outlines LG&E and KU's strategy to meet future energy demands while navigating complex environmental regulations. The utilities' acknowledgment of uncertainties surrounding the Good Neighbor Plan, Effluent Limitation Guidelines and Greenhouse Gas Rules demonstrates prudent planning in a shifting regulatory landscape.
The proposed additions of selective catalytic reduction and other environmental compliance technologies at existing plants show a proactive approach to meeting potential future regulations. This could help mitigate regulatory risks and avoid costly retrofits or premature plant closures.
However, the plan's heavy reliance on natural gas for new generation capacity may face scrutiny in an increasingly carbon-conscious regulatory environment. The inclusion of battery storage and solar options provides some flexibility, but regulators may push for even greater emphasis on renewables.
Investors should monitor the Kentucky Public Service Commission's response to this IRP, as regulatory approval will be critical for implementing the proposed generation additions and associated rate recovery.
Utilities' IRP filing models scenarios and addresses increase in load
LOUISVILLE, Ky., Oct. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ --
As a result, Louisville Gas and Electric Company and Kentucky Utilities Company are forecasting in their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) filed with the Kentucky Public Service Commission (KPSC) today the need for additional generation due to the expected influx of data centers and economic development across the utilities' service territories.
While the utilities' resource planning is an ongoing process, the IRP is a snapshot in time of the companies' planning and required by the KPSC to be filed every three years. It provides an updated view of load and resources needed to serve customers safely, reliably and at the lowest reasonable cost in the years to come.
Despite significant amounts of energy efficiency, customer-installed solar, and other energy-saving activities that are forecasted to reduce load by over 3.5 percent by 2032, LG&E and KU expect economic development to increase system load by 30 percent to 45 percent by 2032 compared to 2024. This unprecedented load growth will require additional generation to continue to provide the reliable electric service that customers expect.
The IRP also addresses the uncertainties around the latest environmental regulations, including the Good Neighbor Plan as it relates to ozone, the 2024 Effluent Limitation Guidelines, and the Clean Air Act Section 111(b) and (d) Greenhouse Gas Rules, all currently in litigation.
"There are always uncertainties when you are planning 15 years out. The idea behind the IRP is to pick a point in time and forecast the best path forward based on the current information that can be modelled," said David Sinclair, vice president–Energy Supply and Analysis. "We know there likely will be market and regulatory changes that could impact our actual plans, but we are confident that, given what we know today, the IRP modelling and our recommendation provide us with a solid direction forward."
In the base case, the utilities recommend that the least-cost path forward to support existing customers, new load and compliance with environmental regulations, would be to build two new natural gas combined-cycle generation units (one in 2030 and another in 2031); install 400 megawatts of battery storage in 2028, another 500 megawatts of battery storage and 500 megawatts of solar in 2035; and add selective catalytic reduction to the Ghent Generating Station Unit 2 in 2028 and environmental compliance technology at
While the IRP is part of the planning process, any new generation requires a filing with and approval from the KPSC.
About LG&E and KU
Louisville Gas and Electric Company and Kentucky Utilities Company, part of the PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL) family of companies, are regulated utilities that serve more than 1.3 million customers and have consistently ranked among the best companies for customer service in
For inquiries: contact the LG&E and KU media hotline at 502-627-4999
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SOURCE Louisville Gas and Electric and Kentucky Utilities
FAQ
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