Pan American Announces Preliminary Economic Assessment of the La Colorada Skarn Project
- Long-life mine with a 17-year mine life
- After-tax NPV(8%) of $1,087 million and 14% IRR
- Annual silver production estimated at 17.2 million ounces during the first 10 years
- 50,000 tonnes per day sub-level cave mining method and conventional flotation plant
- None.
Insights
The La Colorada Skarn project's PEA reveals significant production potential with robust financial metrics such as an after-tax NPV(8%) of $1,087 million and a 14% IRR. The sizable annual production estimates, particularly in silver, alongside zinc and lead, indicate a strong revenue stream, particularly in the context of anticipated market supply decreases for zinc. The project's 17-year mine life and the potential for resource expansion through continued exploration add to the long-term value proposition for investors.
However, the substantial initial capital expenditure of $2,829 million poses a risk, especially given the volatility in commodity prices which could affect the project's profitability. The payback period of 4.3 years is reasonable for mining investments, but it depends on the ability to execute the project on time and within budget. Investors should also consider potential geopolitical and regulatory risks associated with mining operations in Mexico.
The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) indicates that Pan American Silver Corp.'s La Colorada Skarn project has the potential to significantly impact the company's financial performance. The after-tax NPV and IRR suggest that the project could deliver substantial shareholder value, assuming the long-term prices of silver, zinc and lead remain stable or increase. The project's sensitivity to metal prices is crucial, as demonstrated by the provided sensitivity analysis, which shows NPV fluctuations in response to changes in silver and zinc prices.
Investors should note that the PEA is based on inferred resources, which carry a higher risk than proven and probable reserves. The announcement of seeking partnerships for the development of the base metals component could also lead to future strategic collaborations that may alter the project's ownership structure and financial returns. The focus on automation and renewable energy in the project's design could enhance operational efficiency and appeal to ESG-focused investors.
The La Colorada Skarn project's anticipated production levels could influence the supply dynamics for silver, zinc and lead, potentially affecting global commodity markets. The project's scale, particularly in silver, could position Pan American Silver Corp. as a significant player in the silver market, with potential implications for silver pricing, especially if the project's output coincides with a market deficit in zinc.
The long-term prices used in the PEA are optimistic and may not reflect future market conditions, where fluctuations are common. The project's success hinges on consistent demand for these metals and stable or favorable price trends. Investors in the commodities market should monitor developments in this project, as it could have a material impact on the supply and pricing of these metals.
- Production averaging 17.2 million ounces of silver, 427 thousand tonnes of zinc and 218 thousand tonnes of lead annually during the first 10 years
- 50,000 tonnes per day sub-level cave mining method and conventional flotation plant
- 17-year mine life and continued exploration upside, with more than 40,000 metres of recent drilling not included in current mineral resource estimate
-
After-tax NPV(
8% ) of ,$1,087 million 14% IRR, and payback period of 4.3 years estimated using long-term prices of per ounce of silver,$22 per tonne of zinc, and$2,800 per tonne of lead.$2,200
(All amounts are in
La Colorada Skarn Development and Mining Zones (as at December 2023)
"Our objective is to provide investors with exposure to silver, and the La Colorada Skarn provides that exposure in scale, with annual silver production estimated to average 17.2 million ounces during the first 10 years. It is also expected to produce 427 thousand tonnes of zinc annually during that period, which we anticipate would coincide with decreasing zinc supply in the market. Given the volume of base metals in the deposit, Pan American is assessing interest from base metal producers and other capable parties to explore long-term partnerships to develop this polymetallic project, allowing Pan American to focus on the large amount of anticipated silver production," said Michael Steinmann, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pan American.
"Discovering a deposit of this magnitude beneath our currently producing
Conference Call and Webcast
Pan American will host a conference call and webcast relating to the La Colorada Skarn PEA.
Date: |
December 19, 2023 |
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Time: |
11:00 am ET (8:00 am PT) |
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Dial-in numbers: |
1-888-259-6580 (toll-free in |
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+1-416-764-8624 (international participants) |
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Conference ID: |
63145755 |
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Webcast: |
The live webcast, presentation slides and a video of the La Colorada Skarn geology will be available at https://www.panamericansilver.com/invest/events-and-presentations/. An archive of the webcast will also be available for three months.
Project Highlights
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The PEA for the La Colorada Skarn project envisions development of a mine utilizing a 50,000 tonnes per day ("tpd") sub-level cave ("SLC") mining method, accessed via decline ramps and two ventilation shafts. Initial development would be undertaken over a six-year period after permitting. A conventional 50,000 tpd capacity selective zinc and lead flotation processing plant and dry-stack tailings facility would produce silver-bearing mineral concentrates at an average rate of 2,003 tpd of zinc concentrate grading
59% Zinc and 846 tpd of lead concentrate grading61% lead. - The estimated average annual silver, zinc and lead production would be 17.2 million ounces, 427 thousand tonnes and 218 thousand tonnes, respectively, during the first 10 years of production.
- Estimated 17-year life of mine ("LOM"), which does not take into account the 2023 drill results that were disclosed in Pan American's news releases dated May 2, 2023 and December 5, 2023.
-
Metallurgical test work programs conducted included mineralogical analysis, detailed comminution, flotation, and thickening and filtration of the tailings. The flotation concentrates produced from the proposed processing plant are expected to be high-grade, high-quality zinc concentrate and high silver-bearing lead concentrate and are therefore readily marketable. LOM average zinc recovery of
93.7% with concentrate grading59% zinc and 97 grams per tonne ("g/t") silver along with lead recovery of84.3% with concentrate grading61% lead and 1,438 g/t silver, yielding an overall silver recovery of84.8% with72.5% reporting to the lead concentrate. -
The unit operating cost (including mine, mill and general & administrative costs) averages
per tonne over the LOM. The unit operating cost when at full production averages$40.88 per tonne.$38.50 -
Estimated initial capital cost of
over a six-year construction period, with peak spending in years four and five when the mill is being constructed. The payback period of the initial investment is expected to be 4.3 years. The current$2,829 million La Colorada vein mining operation would continue during the Skarn construction and development period. -
Total LOM sustaining capital estimated at
.$951 million -
Cumulative after-tax cash flow of
.$5,689 million -
After-tax net present value ("NPV") of
at an$1,087 million 8% discount rate with an after-tax internal rate of return ("IRR") of14% , an NPV of at a$1,572 million 6.5% discount rate, and an NPV of at a$2,182 million 5% discount rate, using average LOM metal prices of per tonne zinc,$2,800 per tonne of lead and$2,200 per ounce of silver.$22 - The proposed SLC mining method has been identified as a technically viable method of developing the Skarn deposit. Further extension and definition of the mineralisation could complement and expand the initial SLC mining inventory. Expanded SLC and block cave mining methods will be further evaluated in future studies.
- The PEA for the La Colorada Skarn project is based on the mineral resource estimate as at December 15, 2023, which reflects 242,000 metres of drilling. The geological model was completed in December 2022, and neither the mineral resource estimate nor the PEA include the more than 40,000 metres of drilling that was completed during 2023. Further exploration and infill drilling is aimed at expanding the current mineral resource envelope, and is expected to be reflected in an updated mineral resource estimate in mid-2024.
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The La Colorada Skarn is located below and adjacent to our currently producing
La Colorada mine on the Company's existing mining concessions. Pan American owns the surface rights required for the facilities envisaged in the PEA, and owns the mineral concessions in which the mineral resources included in the PEA are located. Pan American has also negotiated preliminary terms for a joint venture arrangement on certain adjacent mineral concessions, which would allow it to utilize these concessions for the proposed Skarn project, and present further opportunities for exploration and project expansion. - Permits would be required to develop a SLC mine, a new processing facility, a dry-stack tailings facility and other surface infrastructure. Some existing permits are expected to benefit the Skarn project in development and operations. The Skarn project will also likely be subject to additional authorizations, consultations and agreements in the normal course of business, as well as other risks and uncertainties.
-
The use of existing
La Colorada site infrastructure for the Skarn project will be included as part of the design where it is practical to do so. The design of the new facilities and the underground mine will focus on the application and incorporation of automation, electrification, energy efficiency, and the use of renewable energy sources to minimize the carbon footprint of the Skarn project.
An updated technical report, prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) on Pan American’s
Production Metrics and Financial Analysis (based on 50,000 tpd production rate)
Construction period |
6 years |
Production mine life |
17 years |
Production rate |
50,000 tpd (or 18.25 million tonnes per annum) |
Mineable inventory |
284.7 million tonnes |
Average annual silver produced first 10 years |
17.2 million ounces |
Average annual zinc produced first 10 years |
427 thousand tonnes |
Average annual lead produced first 10 years |
218 thousand tonnes |
Unit operating costs |
|
Total LOM revenue |
|
Initial capital |
|
Total LOM sustaining capital |
|
Total LOM operating cost |
|
Cumulative after-tax cash flow |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax IRR |
|
Pay-back period (after tax, undiscounted) |
4.3 years |
Notes:
-
Assumes metal prices of
per tonne zinc,$2,800 per tonne of lead and$2,200 per ounce of silver.$22 - The PEA is preliminary in nature, includes inferred mineral resources that would be considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves, and there is no certainty that the preliminary economic assessment will be realized.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The following tables provide sensitivities for NPV(
NPV( |
Ag prices ($/oz) |
|||||
Zn prices ($/t) |
18.00 |
20.00 |
22.00 |
24.00 |
26.00 |
28.00 |
2,200 |
75 |
177 |
276 |
376 |
475 |
574 |
2,500 |
484 |
583 |
682 |
781 |
880 |
979 |
2,800 |
889 |
988 |
1,087 |
1,186 |
1,285 |
1,384 |
3,100 |
1,295 |
1,394 |
1,493 |
1,592 |
1,690 |
1,789 |
3,400 |
1,699 |
1,798 |
1,897 |
1,996 |
2,094 |
2,193 |
NPV( |
Ag prices ($/oz) |
|||||
Zn prices ($/t) |
18.00 |
20.00 |
22.00 |
24.00 |
26.00 |
28.00 |
2,200 |
368 |
489 |
606 |
723 |
840 |
957 |
2,500 |
855 |
972 |
1,089 |
1,206 |
1,323 |
1,440 |
2,800 |
1,338 |
1,455 |
1,572 |
1,689 |
1,806 |
1,923 |
3,100 |
1,820 |
1,937 |
2,054 |
2,171 |
2,288 |
2,405 |
3,400 |
2,302 |
2,419 |
2,536 |
2,652 |
2,769 |
2,886 |
Pan American also considered an alternative development scenario based on a 30,000 tpd production rate, as shown in the following table. The initial capital was reduced appropriately, and the unit operating costs were increased to reflect the lower throughput. The result was an after-tax NPV(
Production Metrics and Financial Analysis (based on 30,000 tpd production rate)
Construction period |
6 years |
Production mine life |
27 years |
Production rate |
30,000 tpd (or 10.95 million tonnes per annum) |
Mineable inventory |
283.9 million tonnes |
Average annual silver produced first 10 years |
11.1 million ounces |
Average annual zinc produced first 10 years |
268 thousand tonnes |
Average annual lead produced first 10 years |
143 thousand tonnes |
Unit operating costs |
|
Total LOM revenue |
|
Initial capital |
|
Total LOM sustaining capital |
|
Total LOM operating cost |
|
Cumulative after-tax cash flow |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax NPV( |
|
After-tax IRR |
|
Notes:
-
Assumes metal prices of
per tonne zinc,$2,800 per tonne of lead and$2,200 per ounce of silver.$22
ESTIMATED MINERAL RESOURCE
The indicated mineral resource is estimated to total 173.6 million tonnes containing 183 million ounces of silver, 4.8 million tonnes of zinc and 2.3 million tonnes of lead. In addition, the inferred mineral resource is estimated to total 103.6 million tonnes containing 116 million ounces of silver, 2.6 million tonnes of zinc and 1.1 million tonnes of lead. The mineral resource estimate is based on a
Classification |
Tonnes
|
Zn
|
Pb
|
Ag
|
Indicated |
173.6 |
2.79 |
1.32 |
33 |
Inferred |
103.6 |
2.47 |
1.03 |
35 |
Notes:
- The effective date of the mineral resources estimate is December 15, 2023. The geological model was completed in December 2022 and diamond drilling from 2023 is not included in this estimate.
- Estimation and reporting of mineral resources were carried out in accordance with Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (“CIM”) guidelines.
- Mineral resources have been classified into indicated and inferred confidence categories.
- Mineral resources have reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction demonstrating sufficient spatial continuity of mineralisation constrained within a potentially mineable shape. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. No mineral reserves are reported at this time for the La Colorada Skarn project.
-
Prices used to report mineral resources were:
per ounce of silver,$22 per tonne of zinc and$2,800 per tonne of lead.$2,200 -
An estimated NSR (in US$/t) was calculated using metallurgical recoveries of
87.4% Ag,88% Pb and93% Zn with mineral concentrate qualities of67% Pb in lead concentrate and60% Zn in zinc concentrate, obtained from metallurgical testing. Estimates for transport, payability and refining/selling costs, based on experience and long-term views of the marketing, treatment and refining of these types of mineral concentrates, were included. -
Reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction were assessed by determining the total in-situ tonnes and metal grades constrained inside volumes that are based on a SLC mining method. To determine the constraining SLC shapes an initial elevated cutoff value of
/t NSR was applied. Then geotechnical, geometry and caving rules were applied to ensure practical mining shapes and sequences were achieved. Each level, in each zone, was individually tested for overall economics, and then tested as part of the caving sequence. The resulting constraining shapes were then considered to be practical mining outlines. The tonnes and grades are inclusive of the must-take low grade material within the volume. No other mining recovery, ring recovery, dilution or mineral losses have been applied.$50 - This mineral resource estimate was prepared under the supervision of, or was reviewed by, Christopher Emerson, FAusIMM, Vice President Exploration and Geology, who is a Qualified Person as that term is defined in NI 43-101.
- Grades are shown as contained metal before mill recoveries are applied. The Company has undertaken a verification process with respect to the data disclosed in this news release.
- A total of 298 diamond drill holes with a total length of 242,000 metres were used in the geological interpretation and resource estimate. Several old historic drill holes were included in the modeling. Drilling of the La Colorada Skarn deposit has been completed from both surface and underground drill platforms.
- All drill hole samples used in the mineral resource estimate have been previously reported in news releases dated October 23, 2018, February 21, 2019, May 8, 2019, August 1, 2019, October 30, 2019, February 13, 2020, August 4, 2020, May 12, 2021, November 10, 2021, February 24, 2022, and May 9, 2022.
General Notes with Respect to Technical Information
The drill hole samples were prepared by the internal
Actlabs, SGS and ALS Global all used fire assay with gravimetric finish for gold, and acid digestion with ICP finish for silver, lead, zinc, and copper. Samples delivered to ALS Global were prepared in
The results of the QAQC samples submitted to SGS, Actlabs, Bureau Veritas, ALS Global and the
The Qualified Person for the mineral resource estimate is of the opinion that the sample preparation, analytical, and security procedures followed for the samples are sufficient and reliable for the purpose of this news release and for the purpose of any future mineral resource and mineral reserve estimates. There were no limitations on the Qualified Persons' verification process. Pan American is not aware of any drilling, sampling, recovery or other factors that could materially affect the accuracy or reliability of the data reported herein.
See the Company’s Annual Information Form dated February 22, 2023, available at www.sedarplus.ca, or Pan American's most recent Form 40-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") for further information on the
Technical information contained in this news release with respect to the PEA and the
Cautionary Note to US Investors
This news release has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of Canadian NI 43-101 and the CIM, which differ from the requirements of
Canadian public disclosure standards, including NI 43-101, differ significantly from the requirements of the SEC, and information concerning mineralization, deposits, mineral reserve and mineral resource information contained or referred to herein may not be comparable to similar information disclosed by
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Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Information
Certain of the statements and information in this news release constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian provincial securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements or information. Forward-looking statements or information in this news release relate to, among other things: estimated average silver, zinc and lead production of the La Colorada Skarn project; the anticipation that the La Colorada Skarn project will coincide with decreasing zinc supply in the market; the exploration of long-term partnerships to develop the La Colorada Skarn project; the anticipated joint venture with respect to certain adjacent mineral concessions; the expansion of the resource envelope and exploration of opportunities to enhance the LOM economics at La Colorada Skarn; estimates with respect to LOM, LOM operating costs, capital costs, sustaining capital, after-tax cash flow, NPV and after-tax IRR, payback period, production capacity and other metrics; that the current
These forward-looking statements and information reflect Pan American’s current views with respect to future events and are necessarily based upon a number of assumptions that, while considered reasonable by Pan American, are inherently subject to significant operational, business, economic and regulatory uncertainties and contingencies. These assumptions include: the ability to execute a joint venture arrangement with respect to certain adjacent mineral concessions, and the terms and conditions of such a joint venture agreement; tonnage of ore to be mined and processed; ore grades and recoveries; prices for silver, gold and base metals remaining as estimated; currency exchange rates remaining as estimated; capital, decommissioning and reclamation estimates; our mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates and the assumptions upon which they are based; prices for energy inputs, labour, materials, supplies and services (including transportation); no labour-related disruptions at any of our operations; no unplanned delays or interruptions in scheduled production; all necessary permits, licenses and regulatory approvals for our operations are received in a timely manner; our ability to secure and maintain title and ownership to properties and the surface rights necessary for our operations; and our ability to comply with environmental, health and safety laws. The foregoing list of assumptions is not exhaustive.
Pan American cautions the reader that forward-looking statements and information involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements or information contained in this news release and Pan American has made assumptions and estimates based on or related to many of these factors. Such factors include, without limitation: fluctuations in silver, gold and base metal prices; fluctuations in prices for energy inputs, labour, materials, supplies and services (including transportation); fluctuations in currency markets; operational risks and hazards inherent with the business of mining (including environmental accidents and hazards, industrial accidents, equipment breakdown, unusual or unexpected geological or structural formations, cave-ins, flooding and severe weather); risks relating to the credit worthiness or financial condition of suppliers, refiners and other parties with whom Pan American does business; inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to cover these risks and hazards; employee relations; relationships with, and claims by, local communities and indigenous populations; our ability to obtain all necessary permits, licenses and regulatory approvals in a timely manner; changes in laws, regulations and government practices in the jurisdictions where we operate, including environmental, export and import laws and regulations; changes in national and local government, legislation, taxation, controls or regulations and political, legal or economic developments, including legal restrictions relating to mining and risks relating to expropriation; diminishing quantities or grades of mineral reserves as properties are mined; increased competition in the mining industry for equipment and qualified personnel; the duration and effects any pandemics on our operations and workforce; those factors identified under the caption "Risks Related to Pan American's Business" in Pan American's most recent form 40-F and Annual Information Form filed with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities, respectively; and those factors identified under the caption "Risks and Uncertainties" in Pan American's form 6-K and Management’s Discussion and Analysis filed on November 7, 2023 with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities, respectively. Although Pan American has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, described or intended. Investors are cautioned against undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information. Forward-looking statements and information are designed to help readers understand management's current views of our near and longer term prospects and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Pan American does not intend, nor does it assume any obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, changes in assumptions, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231219022194/en/
Siren Fisekci
VP, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
Ph: 604-806-3191
Email: ir@panamericansilver.com
Source: Pan American Silver
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