Realtor.com® Analysis Finds Nine States Could Potentially Become Bluer, while 22 States Could Shift Redder in the 2024 Election
Realtor.com® released a report analyzing how population shifts could reshape the political landscape in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The study used proprietary data on geographic home shopping trends and county-level 2020 election results to predict potential changes. Key findings include:
- Nine states could potentially become bluer, while 22 states could shift redder.
- Three swing states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) could trend redder, while two (Wisconsin, Nevada) could shift bluer.
- Michigan and Pennsylvania show mixed population shifts with no clear direction.
- Florida, Texas, and North Carolina are top destinations for both blue and red out-of-state home shoppers.
- New Jersey attracts more blue shoppers, while Tennessee is favored by red buyers.
The analysis considers factors such as influx rates of blue vs. red shoppers and retention rates of local home shoppers to predict potential shifts in state political leanings.
Realtor.com® ha pubblicato un rapporto che analizza come i cambiamenti demografici potrebbero rimodellare il panorama politico nelle elezioni presidenziali statunitensi del 2024. Lo studio ha utilizzato dati proprietari sulle tendenze d'acquisto immobiliare e sui risultati elettorali a livello di contea del 2020 per prevedere potenziali cambiamenti. I principali risultati includono:
- Nove stati potrebbero diventare potenzialmente più a sinistra, mentre 22 stati potrebbero spostarsi verso destra.
- Tre stati in bilico (Arizona, Georgia, Carolina del Nord) potrebbero tendere verso destra, mentre due (Wisconsin, Nevada) potrebbero spostarsi a sinistra.
- Michigan e Pennsylvania mostrano cambiamenti demografici misti senza una chiara direzione.
- Florida, Texas e Carolina del Nord sono le principali destinazioni per gli acquirenti di case fuori stato sia blu che rossi.
- Il New Jersey attrae più acquirenti blu, mentre il Tennessee è preferito dagli acquirenti rossi.
L'analisi considera fattori come i tassi di afflusso di acquirenti blu rispetto a quelli rossi e i tassi di fidelizzazione degli acquirenti locali per prevedere potenziali cambiamenti nelle inclinazioni politiche degli stati.
Realtor.com® lanzó un informe que analiza cómo los cambios de población podrían remodelar el panorama político en las elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU. de 2024. El estudio utilizó datos propietarios sobre las tendencias de compra de viviendas por región y los resultados electorales a nivel de condado en 2020 para predecir cambios potenciales. Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- Nueve estados podrían volverse potencialmente más progresistas, mientras que 22 estados podrían inclinarse hacia la derecha.
- Tres estados clave (Arizona, Georgia, Carolina del Norte) podrían mostrar una tendencia más a la derecha, mientras que dos (Wisconsin, Nevada) podrían inclinarse más a la izquierda.
- Michigan y Pennsylvania muestran cambios de población mixtos sin una dirección clara.
- Florida, Texas y Carolina del Norte son los principales destinos para compradores de viviendas de fuera del estado, tanto azules como rojos.
- Nueva Jersey atrae a más compradores azules, mientras que Tennessee es preferido por los compradores rojos.
El análisis considera factores como las tasas de afluencia de compradores azules versus rojos y las tasas de retención de compradores locales para predecir posibles cambios en las inclinaciones políticas de los estados.
Realtor.com®는 인구 이동이 2024년 미국 대선의 정치적 풍경을 어떻게 변화시킬 수 있는지 분석한 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 연구는 지리적 주택 구매 트렌드와 카운티 수준의 2020년 선거 결과에 대한 독점 데이터를 사용하여 잠재적인 변화를 예측했습니다. 주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
- 아홉 개 주가 더 푸른 색이 될 가능성이 있고, 22개 주는 더 붉어질 수 있습니다.
- 세 개의 경합 주(애리조나, 조지아, 노스 캐롤라이나)는 더 붉어질 수 있으며, 두 개(위스콘신, 네바다)는 더 푸르게 변할 수 있습니다.
- 미시간과 펜실베이니아는 명확한 방향 없이 혼합된 인구 이동을 보입니다.
- 플로리다, 텍사스, 노스 캐롤라이나는 푸른 색과 붉은 색의 외부 주택 구매자 모두에게 인기 있는 목적지입니다.
- 뉴저지는 더 많은 푸른 색 구매자를 끌어들이며, 테네시는 붉은 색 구매자에게 선호됩니다.
분석은 주의 정치적 성향 변화 예측하기 위해 블루 및 레드 구매자의 유입 비율과 지역 주택 구매자의 유지 비율과 같은 요소를 고려합니다.
Realtor.com® a publié un rapport analysant comment les mouvements de population pourraient redéfinir le paysage politique lors des élections présidentielles américaines de 2024. L'étude a utilisé des données propriétaires sur les tendances d'achat immobilier par région et les résultats électoraux au niveau des comtés pour prédire d'éventuels changements. Les principales conclusions incluent :
- Neuf États pourraient devenir potentiellement plus démocrates, tandis que 22 États pourraient devenir plus républicains.
- Trois États clés (Arizona, Géorgie, Caroline du Nord) pourraient se diriger vers un positionnement plus républicain, tandis que deux (Wisconsin, Nevada) pourraient se tourner vers un positionnement plus démocrate.
- Le Michigan et la Pennsylvanie montrent des mouvements de population mixtes sans direction claire.
- La Floride, le Texas et la Caroline du Nord sont les principales destinations pour les acheteurs de maisons d'autres États, qu'ils soient démocrates ou républicains.
- Le New Jersey attire plus d'acheteurs démocrates, tandis que le Tennessee est préféré par les acheteurs républicains.
L'analyse prend en compte des facteurs tels que les taux d'afflux des acheteurs démocrates par rapport aux acheteurs républicains et les taux de fidélisation des acheteurs locaux pour prédire les éventuels changements dans les inclinaisons politiques des États.
Realtor.com® hat einen Bericht veröffentlicht, der analysiert, wie Bevölkerungsverschiebungen die politische Landschaft bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen in den USA im Jahr 2024 umgestalten könnten. Die Studie verwendete proprietäre Daten zu geografischen Wohntrends und den Wahlergebnissen auf Kreisebene von 2020, um potenzielle Veränderungen vorherzusagen. Zu den wesentlichen Ergebnissen gehören:
- Neun Bundesstaaten könnten potenziell blauer werden, während 22 Bundesstaaten röter werden könnten.
- Drei umkämpfte Staaten (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) könnten tendenziell röter werden, während zwei (Wisconsin, Nevada) blauer werden könnten.
- Michigan und Pennsylvania zeigen gemischte Bevölkerungsverschiebungen ohne klare Richtung.
- Florida, Texas und North Carolina sind die Top-Destinationen sowohl für blaue als auch für rote Käufer aus anderen Bundesstaaten.
- New Jersey zieht mehr blaue Käufer an, während Tennessee von roten Käufern bevorzugt wird.
Die Analyse berücksichtigt Faktoren wie die Zuflussraten von blauen vs. roten Käufern und die Bindungsraten von lokalen Käufern, um potenzielle Verschiebungen in den politischen Neigungen der Bundesstaaten vorherzusagen.
- Realtor.com® developed a new method to predict potential political shifts based on home shopping trends
- The analysis provides insights into possible changes in the political landscape for the 2024 election
- The report identifies specific states that could potentially shift bluer or redder
- The study offers data on out-of-state migration preferences for both blue and red home shoppers
- The analysis simplifies political affiliations based on county-level 2020 election results, potentially overlooking other factors
- The predictions are based on home shopping trends, which may not directly translate to actual voting behavior
- The report does not consider other factors such as income, age, or housing preferences that may influence home shopping behavior
Three swing states,
"The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape, " said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. "As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond."
This analysis highlights migration-informed possibilities that may factor alongside voter preferences on key issues to influence the Presidential election in 2024. Because neither people nor opinions are fixed, the
The new report found the following possibilities for the 2024 Presidential election:
- Four blue states—Connecticut,
Delaware ,District of Columbia , Maine—could trend bluer - Seven blue states—California,
Colorado ,Illinois ,Minnesota ,New York ,Oregon and Washington— could trend redder - Three red states—Alaska,
Florida and Ohio— could shift bluer - Twelve red states—Kansas,
Kentucky ,Louisiana, Missouri ,Nebraska ,North Dakota ,South Carolina ,South Dakota ,Tennessee ,Texas ,Utah and Wyoming— could trend redder - Three swing states—Arizona,
Georgia and North Carolina— could trend redder - Two swing states—Wisconsin and Nevada— could shift bluer
- Two swing states–Michigan and Pennsylvania–have mixed population shifts that do not suggest a clear direction–red or blue–for the local electorate
Out of State Migration Preferences
When a state receives a higher influx of blue shoppers compared to red shoppers, it is a more appealing out-of-state destination for blue buyers, and vice versa.
Where do blue and red home shoppers remain?
A desirable location for potential home buyers is not only defined by its ability to attract new migrants, but also by the willingness of current residents to stay. To estimate the retention rate for in-state blue and red home buyers for each state, the analysis calculates the proportion of in-state blue and red home buyers who choose to shop homes within their own state.
Methodology:
To analyze the shifting interests and patterns of
For instance, if
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact
Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com
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SOURCE Realtor.com
FAQ
How many states could potentially become bluer in the 2024 election according to Realtor.com's analysis?
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