With Falling Mortgage Rates, These Markets Are Likely to See the Most Changes: New Realtor.com® Study
Realtor.com® has released a new study analyzing the potential impact of falling mortgage rates on various real estate markets. The study focuses on markets with a high percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgages, which are likely to see the most significant changes. Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh, N.C., Virginia Beach, VA, and Portland, OR top the list with the highest share of mortgaged homeowners.
Key findings include:
- Markets with high mortgage utilization may be more sensitive to rate changes
- Mortgage rates are expected to stay in the low 6% range through year-end
- New Orleans, LA has the highest share of outright homeownership at 45.8%
- Markets with higher homeownership rates tend to have more outright ownership
- Older homeowners (65+) correlate with higher outright homeownership rates
The study suggests that as mortgage rates decline, real estate activity is likely to increase in markets with high mortgage utilization.
Realtor.com® ha pubblicato un nuovo studio che analizza il potenziale impatto del calo dei tassi ipotecari su vari mercati immobiliari. Lo studio si concentra sui mercati con una alta percentuale di case di proprietà occupate da proprietari che hanno un mutuo, i quali sono destinati a subire i cambiamenti più significativi. Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh, N.C., Virginia Beach, VA e Portland, OR si trovano in cima alla lista con la maggiore quota di proprietari di casa con mutuo.
I principali risultati includono:
- I mercati con alta utilizzo di mutui potrebbero essere più sensibili alle variazioni dei tassi
- I tassi dei mutui sono previsti rimanere nell'intervallo basso del 6% fino alla fine dell'anno
- New Orleans, LA ha la quota più alta di proprietà totale con il 45,8%
- I mercati con tassi di possesso più elevati tendono ad avere una maggiore proprietà totale
- I proprietari più anziani (65+) correlano con tassi di proprietà totale più elevati
Lo studio suggerisce che, con la diminuzione dei tassi ipotecari, l'attività immobiliare è destinata ad aumentare nei mercati con alta utilizzazione dei mutui.
Realtor.com® ha publicado un nuevo estudio que analiza el impacto potencial de la caída de las tasas hipotecarias en varios mercados inmobiliarios. El estudio se centra en los mercados con un alto porcentaje de casas ocupadas por sus propietarios con hipotecas, que probablemente experimentarán los cambios más significativos. Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh, N.C., Virginia Beach, VA y Portland, OR encabezan la lista con la mayor proporción de propietarios con hipoteca.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- Los mercados con alta utilización de hipotecas pueden ser más sensibles a los cambios de tasas
- Se espera que las tasas hipotecarias se mantengan en el bajo rango del 6% hasta fin de año
- New Orleans, LA, tiene la mayor participación de propiedad total con un 45,8%
- Los mercados con tasas de propiedad más altas tienden a tener más propiedad total
- Los propietarios mayores (65+) están correlacionados con tasas de propiedad total más altas
El estudio sugiere que a medida que disminuyen las tasas hipotecarias, la actividad inmobiliaria probablemente aumentará en los mercados con alta utilización de hipotecas.
Realtor.com®는 다양한 부동산 시장에 대한 대출 이율 하락의 잠재적 영향을 분석한 새로운 연구를 발표했습니다. 이 연구는 대출로 주택을 소유하고 있는 점유율이 높은 시장에 집중하고 있으며, 이 곳에서 가장 큰 변화가 발생할 가능성이 큽니다. 워싱턴 D.C., 덴버, CO., 롤리, N.C., 버지니아 비치, VA, 포틀랜드, OR는 대출을 가진 주택 소유자의 비율이 가장 높은 목록의 정점에 있습니다.
주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
- 높은 대출 이용이 있는 시장은 금리 변경에 더 민감할 수 있습니다
- 대출 금리는 연말까지 6%대에서 유지될 것으로 예상됩니다
- 뉴올리언스, LA는 45.8%로 완전 소유 비율이 가장 높습니다
- 높은 주택 소유 비율을 가진 시장은 더 높은 완전 소유를 경향합니다
- 65세 이상의 오래된 주택 소유자는 더 높은 완전 소유 비율과 상관관계를 가집니다
조사 결과, 대출 금리가 하락함에 따라 높은 대출 이용이 있는 시장에서 부동산 활동이 증가할 것으로 보입니다.
Realtor.com® a publié une nouvelle étude analysant l'impact potentiel de la baisse des taux hypothécaires sur différents marchés immobiliers. L'étude se concentre sur les marchés ayant un pourcentage élevé de logements occupés par des propriétaires avec hypothèque, qui sont susceptibles de connaître les changements les plus significatifs. Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh, N.C., Virginia Beach, VA et Portland, OR occupent le haut de la liste avec la plus forte part de propriétaires de maisons avec hypothèque.
Les résultats principaux incluent :
- Les marchés avec une forte utilisation des hypothèques peuvent être plus sensibles aux variations de taux
- Les taux hypothécaires devraient rester dans la fourchette basse de 6 % jusqu'à la fin de l'année
- New Orleans, LA a la plus grande part de propriété totale avec 45,8 %
- Les marchés avec des taux de propriété plus élevés ont tendance à avoir plus de propriété totale
- Les propriétaires plus âgés (65 ans et plus) sont en corrélation avec des taux plus élevés de propriété totale
L'étude suggère qu'à mesure que les taux hypothécaires diminuent, l'activité immobilière est susceptible d'augmenter sur les marchés avec une forte utilisation des hypothèques.
Realtor.com® hat eine neue Studie veröffentlicht, die die potenziellen Auswirkungen fallender Hypothekenzinsen auf verschiedene Immobilienmärkte analysiert. Die Studie konzentriert sich auf Märkte mit einem hohen Anteil an selbstgenutzten Immobilien mit Hypotheken, die wahrscheinlich die bedeutendsten Veränderungen erfahren werden. Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh, N.C., Virginia Beach, VA und Portland, OR führen die Liste mit dem höchsten Anteil an kredithaltigen Eigenheimbesitzern an.
Wichtige Ergebnisse sind:
- Märkte mit hoher Hypothekennutzung könnten empfindlicher auf Zinsänderungen reagieren
- Die Hypothekenzinsen werden voraussichtlich bis zum Jahresende im niedrigen 6%-Bereich bleiben
- New Orleans, LA hat den höchsten Anteil an vollem Eigentum mit 45,8%
- Markte mit höheren Eigenheimquote haben tendenziell mehr volles Eigentum
- Ältere Hausbesitzer (65+) korrelieren mit höheren Eigentumsraten
Die Studie legt nahe, dass mit sinkenden Hypothekenzinsen die Immobilienaktivitäten in Märkten mit hoher Hypothekennutzung zunehmen werden.
- Mortgage rates are expected to decline, potentially reaching the high 5% range by next spring
- Lower rates may encourage more buyers to return to the real estate market
- Markets with high mortgage utilization are likely to see increased real estate activity as rates decline
- Current market rates still exceed rates for most existing homeowners, potentially limiting their options
- Markets with higher outright ownership may be less impacted by falling mortgage rates, potentially leading to uneven market recovery
Insights
This study from Realtor.com® provides valuable insights into how falling mortgage rates might impact different real estate markets across the U.S. The analysis focuses on the share of owner-occupied homes with mortgages in various metro areas, which is a important factor in determining market sensitivity to rate changes.
Key takeaways:
- Markets like Washington D.C. and Denver, with nearly
75% of owner-occupied homes having mortgages, are likely to see more significant changes in real estate activity as rates decline. - Mortgage rates are expected to stay in the low 6% range through year-end, potentially reaching the high 5% range by next spring.
- Markets with higher outright homeownership, such as New Orleans (45.8% without mortgages), may be less affected by rate changes.
For investors, this data suggests potential opportunities in markets with high mortgage utilization as lower rates could stimulate buying and selling activity. However, it's important to note that factors like local economic conditions and housing supply will also play significant roles in market dynamics.
This study highlights the nuanced impact of falling mortgage rates across different U.S. markets. The data reveals important trends that could shape real estate investment strategies:
- Markets with high mortgage utilization (e.g., Washington D.C., Denver) may see increased transaction volumes as rates decrease, potentially leading to more liquidity and price movements.
- Areas with high outright ownership (e.g., New Orleans, Buffalo) might experience more stability, as homeowners are less influenced by rate fluctuations.
- The correlation between older homeowners and outright ownership suggests that markets with aging populations could be less reactive to rate changes.
Investors should consider these factors when assessing market opportunities. While lower rates generally stimulate activity, the varying degrees of impact across markets could create divergent trends in home prices, inventory levels and investment returns. It's important to analyze local demographics, homeownership patterns and economic factors alongside this mortgage data for comprehensive investment decisions.
"Having a mortgage with a low interest rate is a fantastic benefit to existing homeowners, but sometimes being in a great position can limit your options. Although mortgage rates have eased, market rates continue to exceed current rates for most homeowners keeping them locked in 'golden handcuffs,'" said Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®. "In markets like
Following the Fed's announcement of a big rate cut in September, we expect mortgage rates to stay in the low
Metros with the highest share of owner occupied homes with a mortgage
Washington -Arlington -Alexandria , DC-Va.-Md.-W.V. -74.7% Denver -Aurora -Lakewood, Colo. -72.4% Raleigh -Cary, N.C. -72.0% Virginia Beach -Norfolk -Newport News, Va. -N.C. -71.0% Portland -Vancouver -Hillsboro, Ore. -Wa. -69.8% Baltimore -Columbia -Towson, Md. -69.5% Seattle -Tacoma -Bellevue, Wash. -69.4% Atlanta -Sandy Springs -Alpharetta, Ga. -69.4% Indianapolis -Carmel -Anderson, Ind. -69.0% San Diego -Chula Vista -Carlsbad, Calif. -68.9%
Markets with a higher share of outright ownership could exhibit a degree of insulation from the impact of lower mortgage rates. Notably,
Metros with the highest share of owner occupied homes without a mortgage
New Orleans -Metairie, La. -45.8% Buffalo -Cheektowaga, N.Y. -45.2% Pittsburgh, Pa. -45.2% Miami -Fort Lauderdale -Pompano Beach, Fla. -43.8% Tampa -St. Petersburg-Clearwater , Fla. -42.9% Detroit -Warren -Dearborn, Mich. -41.7% Birmingham -Hoover, Ala. -41.5% Houston -The Woodlands -Sugar Land, Texas -41.2% Oklahoma City, Okla. -41.0% Cleveland -Elyria, Ohio -40.5%
Age and High Homeownership Rates Also Create More Insulated Markets
Markets with higher homeownership rates tend to have a greater share of outright ownership. Additionally, there is a strong correlation between a larger proportion of older homeowners (aged 65 and above) and the prevalence of outright homeownership.
In markets with elevated homeownership rates, individuals typically purchase homes at a younger age. As property values appreciate over time, homeowners can leverage the accumulated equity to either refinance their mortgages or sell and downsize, avoiding the need for new mortgage debt. This trend is particularly beneficial for older homeowners, who have had more time to benefit from both home value appreciation and equity growth
Metro Areas Where Mortgages are Most Common
Metro | % of Owner With A Mortgage | % of Owner Occupied Homes Without A Mortgage |
74.7 % | 25.3 % | |
72.4 % | 27.6 % | |
72.0 % | 28.0 % | |
71.0 % | 29.0 % | |
69.8 % | 30.2 % | |
69.5 % | 30.5 % | |
69.4 % | 30.6 % | |
69.4 % | 30.6 % | |
69.0 % | 31.0 % | |
68.9 % | 31.1 % | |
68.9 % | 31.1 % | |
68.9 % | 31.1 % | |
68.7 % | 31.3 % | |
68.6 % | 31.4 % | |
68.3 % | 31.7 % | |
68.1 % | 31.9 % | |
67.9 % | 32.1 % | |
67.7 % | 32.3 % | |
67.6 % | 32.4 % | |
66.6 % | 33.4 % | |
66.5 % | 33.5 % | |
66.3 % | 33.7 % | |
65.7 % | 34.3 % | |
65.6 % | 34.4 % | |
65.5 % | 34.5 % | |
65.5 % | 34.5 % | |
64.9 % | 35.1 % | |
64.1 % | 35.9 % | |
64.0 % | 36.0 % | |
64.0 % | 36.0 % | |
63.6 % | 36.4 % | |
63.6 % | 36.4 % | |
63.6 % | 36.4 % | |
63.4 % | 36.6 % | |
63.3 % | 36.7 % | |
62.8 % | 37.2 % | |
62.2 % | 37.8 % | |
61.0 % | 39.0 % | |
60.2 % | 39.8 % | |
59.6 % | 40.4 % | |
59.5 % | 40.5 % | |
59.0 % | 41.0 % | |
58.8 % | 41.2 % | |
58.5 % | 41.5 % | |
58.3 % | 41.7 % | |
57.1 % | 42.9 % | |
56.2 % | 43.8 % | |
54.8 % | 45.2 % | |
54.8 % | 45.2 % | |
54.2 % | 45.8 % | |
Data source: 2023 ACS 1-Year Estimate | ||
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact
Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com
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SOURCE Realtor.com
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