Realtor.com® 2025 Housing Forecast: Will There be a "Trump Bump" in Housing Next Year?
Realtor.com's 2025 Housing Forecast predicts a more balanced market with home prices growing by 3.7% and mortgage rates staying above 6%. Key projections include:
- Average mortgage rates of 6.3%, declining to 6.2% by year-end
- 11.7% increase in existing home inventory
- 13.8% growth in single-family new home starts, reaching 1.1 million homes
- 1.5% year-over-year growth in home sales to 4.07 million
- Virtually unchanged rents (-0.1%)
The forecast suggests broader economic factors will have a larger impact on housing than potential new federal policies. The market is expected to see its first balanced conditions in nine years, with months' supply improving from 3.7 to 4.1 months in 2025.
La previsione abitativa di Realtor.com per il 2025 prevede un mercato più equilibrato, con i prezzi delle case in aumento del 3,7% e i tassi ipotecari che resteranno sopra il 6%. Le proiezioni chiave includono:
- Tassi ipotecari medi del 6,3%, che scenderanno al 6,2% entro la fine dell'anno
- Aumento dell'inventario di case esistenti dell'11,7%
- Crescita del 13,8% nelle nuove costruzioni di abitazioni unifamiliari, raggiungendo 1,1 milioni di case
- Crescita anno su anno delle vendite di case dell'1,5%, per un totale di 4,07 milioni
- Affitti praticamente invariati (-0,1%)
La previsione suggerisce che fattori economici più ampi avranno un impatto maggiore sull'edilizia residenziale rispetto a eventuali nuove politiche federali. Si prevede che il mercato vedrà le prime condizioni di equilibrio in nove anni, con un miglioramento dell'offerta mensile da 3,7 a 4,1 mesi nel 2025.
La previsión de vivienda de Realtor.com para 2025 predice un mercado más equilibrado, con los precios de las viviendas creciendo un 3.7% y las tasas hipotecarias manteniéndose por encima del 6%. Las proyecciones clave incluyen:
- Tasas hipotecarias medias del 6.3%, que disminuirán al 6.2% para fin de año
- Aumento del 11.7% en el inventario de viviendas existentes
- Crecimiento del 13.8% en el inicio de nuevas viviendas unifamiliares, alcanzando 1.1 millones de casas
- Crecimiento interanual del 1.5% en las ventas de viviendas, alcanzando 4.07 millones
- Alquileres prácticamente sin cambios (-0.1%)
La previsión sugiere que los factores económicos más amplios tendrán un mayor impacto en la vivienda que las posibles nuevas políticas federales. Se espera que el mercado vea sus primeras condiciones equilibradas en nueve años, con una mejora en el suministro a meses de 3.7 a 4.1 meses en 2025.
Realtor.com의 2025 주택 전망은 주택 시장이 보다 균형 잡힐 것으로 예상하며, 주택 가격이 3.7% 증가하고 주택 담보 대출 금리가 6% 이상 유지될 것으로 보고 있습니다. 주요 전망은 다음과 같습니다:
- 평균 주택 담보 대출 금리는 6.3%에서 연말까지 6.2%로 하락
- 기존 주택 재고가 11.7% 증가
- 단독주택 착공이 13.8% 증가하여 110만 채에 도달
- 주택 판매가 전년 대비 1.5% 증가하여 407만 채에 도달
- 임대료는 거의 변동 없음 (-0.1%)
이 예상은 보다 광범위한 경제적 요소가 잠재적인 새로운 연방 정책보다 주택에 더 큰 영향을 미칠 것임을 시사합니다. 시장은 9년 만에 처음으로 균형 잡힌 상태를 보게 될 것으로 예상되며, 2025년에는 공급 월수가 3.7개월에서 4.1개월로 개선될 것입니다.
Les prévisions immobilières de Realtor.com pour 2025 prédisent un marché plus équilibré, avec une augmentation des prix des logements de 3,7% et des taux hypothécaires restant au-dessus de 6%. Les projections clés comprennent :
- Taux hypothécaires moyens de 6,3%, qui diminueront à 6,2% d'ici la fin de l'année
- Augmentation de 11,7% de l'inventaire des maisons existantes
- Croissance de 13,8% des mises en chantier de maisons individuelles, atteignant 1,1 million de maisons
- Croissance annuelle des ventes de logements de 1,5% pour atteindre 4,07 millions
- Loyers pratiquement inchangés (-0,1%)
Les prévisions suggèrent que des facteurs économiques plus larges auront un impact plus important sur le logement que de potentielles nouvelles politiques fédérales. Le marché devrait connaître ses premières conditions équilibrées en neuf ans, avec une amélioration de l'offre de 3,7 à 4,1 mois en 2025.
Die Wohnungsprognose von Realtor.com für 2025 prognostiziert einen ausgewogeneren Markt, wobei die Hauspreise um 3,7% steigen und die Hypothekenzinsen über 6% bleiben werden. Wichtige Prognosen beinhalten:
- Durchschnittliche Hypothekenzinsen von 6,3%, die bis zum Jahresende auf 6,2% sinken
- 11,7% Anstieg des Bestands an bestehenden Wohnungen
- 13,8% Wachstum bei Neubauten von Einfamilienhäusern, insgesamt 1,1 Millionen Häuser
- Jahr-zu-Jahr-Wachstum der Hausverkäufe um 1,5% auf 4,07 Millionen
- Mieten nahezu unverändert (-0,1%)
Die Prognose legt nahe, dass breitere wirtschaftliche Faktoren einen größeren Einfluss auf den Wohnungsmarkt haben werden als potenzielle neue Bundespolitiken. Es wird erwartet, dass der Markt in neun Jahren zum ersten Mal ausgewogene Bedingungen erlebt, wobei der Angebotsindex von 3,7 auf 4,1 Monate im Jahr 2025 verbessert wird.
- 13.8% growth in single-family new home starts, reaching highest level since 2006
- 11.7% increase in existing home inventory
- 1.5% growth in home sales to 4.07 million
- 3.7% projected home price growth
- Market moving toward balanced conditions with 4.1 months' supply
- Mortgage rates to remain elevated above 6% throughout 2025
- Rent prices expected to remain stagnant (-0.1%)
Insights
The 2025 housing forecast signals a significant market rebalancing with several key developments. The projected 3.7% price growth alongside
The shift from a 3.7-month to 4.1-month supply indicates the first balanced market in nine years. This transition, combined with 11.7% inventory growth and nearly
The forecast acknowledges potential policy impacts while emphasizing broader economic factors as primary market drivers. The anticipated regulatory changes under the Trump administration, particularly regarding federal land availability and construction regulation reduction (currently adding
Regional variations are notable, with the South leading rental stock growth at
Inventory gains bring first "balanced" market in nine years, as the Trump administration takes office
"While President-elect Trump can work quickly with his administration to implement some regulatory changes, other policies that will affect housing, such as tax changes and broad deregulation, require the cooperation of other branches and levels of government," said Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®. "The size and direction of a Trump bump will depend on what campaign proposals ultimately become policy and when. For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors. The new administration's policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter."
In 2025, Realtor.com® forecasts that buyers and sellers can expect:
- Average mortgage rates of
6.3% , with rates edging down over the year to reach6.2% by the end of the year - Home prices will grow by
3.7% continuing growth trends since 2012 - Rents will remain about the same with a slight
0.1% drop - A
11.7% increase in existing home inventory continuing the trend from 2024 - Single-family new home starts will grow an impressive
13.8% , reaching 1.1 million homes, a figure not seen since 2006 - Home sales will grow
1.5% year over year to 4.07 million - Months' supply, a key market balance indicator, is expected to improve from a 3.7 month average in 2024 to 4.1 months in 2025. Anything under 4 is typically considered a seller's market, while 4 to 6 months of supply is typically considered a balanced market.
How could President-elect Trump policies impact the housing forecast in 2025?
A Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress will likely result in pros and cons for the housing market. Among President Trump's proposals to address the housing shortage is making more federal land available for homebuilding and addressing regulation, which estimates suggest contributes to more than
What should buyers and sellers expect in 2025?
Overall buyers and sellers should expect to see a more balanced market in 2025, which will require some give and take on both sides. Homebuyers frustrated by higher interest rates will have some buyer-friendly conditions in 2025, such as the highest for-sale inventory since December 2019 and nearly
Limited inventory and strong demand in many areas could mean that sellers still have the upper hand in terms of negotiating prices, especially in desirable locations. However, higher interest rates or slower than expected income growth could lead to fewer buyers being able to afford homes, which might result in longer selling times or price reductions in some markets.
Key Trends and Wildcards to Watch in 2025:
Slight rebound in overall home sales – The 2025 forecast has home sales slightly increasing, with an expected annual count of sales to be
Mortgage rates – While markets are factoring in expectations of a higher-rate environment than previously thought, there is uncertainty around which policies will take priority and whether the specifics match or merely rhyme with campaign promises. These details will matter for the outlook and for mortgage rates.
Rent prices will largely remain the same, more rental supply growth in the South – While the surge in new multifamily supply offers renters more options, the large renter population will dampen any significant impact on rental prices. The median asking rent in 2025 is expected to be only slightly lower than in 2024 (-
Big increases in both new home sales and new home starts – While existing home sales are expected to remain largely unchanged for the year in 2025, new home sales and single-family housing starts are expected to outperform. With a substantial construction deficit over the last decade, builders have room to run and may get an additional boost from a builder-friendly administration that understands the need for more construction. Single-family starts are expected to total 1.1 million in 2025, an impressive
"While more inventory means buyers will likely have more time to make purchase decisions in 2025, in any market, a fast-acting buyer will have a higher likelihood of making the winning offer," said Hale. "For this reason, it's wise to get prepared financially and for the home search overall. Thankfully for homebuyers there are more tools, like Realtor.com®'s dynamic map layer, to help home buyers and sellers get ready."
When faced with an overwhelming amount of market information, Realtor.com®'s dynamic map layers can help consumers make better sense of it. These new map-based search features allow buyers and sellers to explore a wide range of neighborhood and home details with just a quick glance, such as home estimates, lot size, year built, sold price, sold price per sq ft, market hotness, climate factors and more.
For more information about the Realtor.com® 2025 housing forecast, visit: https://www.realtor.com/research/2025-national-housing-forecast/
Local Market Predictions – 100 Largest
Metro | 2025 | 2025 Price |
15.0 % | 4.2 % | |
10.3 % | 6.6 % | |
-4.1 % | -4.2 % | |
12.3 % | 8.0 % | |
15.1 % | 10.2 % | |
14.2 % | 5.8 % | |
14.5 % | 10.2 % | |
9.9 % | 6.0 % | |
16.2 % | 2.7 % | |
5.5 % | 2.7 % | |
-8.3 % | 2.3 % | |
2.0 % | 12.3 % | |
-1.8 % | 5.6 % | |
-5.4 % | 4.9 % | |
9.7 % | 8.5 % | |
13.2 % | 9.6 % | |
5.8 % | 7.0 % | |
15.7 % | 8.4 % | |
2.2 % | 6.3 % | |
12.4 % | 4.5 % | |
8.2 % | 7.3 % | |
9.4 % | 5.0 % | |
27.1 % | 12.7 % | |
12.1 % | 8.2 % | |
3.4 % | 5.7 % | |
7.6 % | 9.2 % | |
2.3 % | 4.3 % | |
7.2 % | 11.5 % | |
13.6 % | 8.0 % | |
2.7 % | 4.9 % | |
2.4 % | 6.2 % | |
14.1 % | 10.1 % | |
19.3 % | 8.4 % | |
8.1 % | 5.1 % | |
3.9 % | 7.7 % | |
17.3 % | 7.7 % | |
5.1 % | 8.9 % | |
16.8 % | 5.1 % | |
3.8 % | 5.6 % | |
7.2 % | 7.3 % | |
7.7 % | 8.2 % | |
13.5 % | 9.8 % | |
6.7 % | 6.9 % | |
3.7 % | 8.3 % | |
10.6 % | 10.3 % | |
10.3 % | 4.9 % | |
5.5 % | 12.3 % | |
18.6 % | 4.8 % | |
4.2 % | 5.5 % | |
4.6 % | 6.1 % | |
-8.4 % | 5.5 % | |
19.8 % | 7.0 % | |
8.3 % | 10.5 % | |
24.0 % | 9.0 % | |
8.6 % | 5.7 % | |
6.3 % | 6.2 % | |
4.5 % | 8.3 % | |
-8.4 % | 9.7 % | |
1.7 % | 5.9 % | |
11.0 % | 5.9 % | |
3.2 % | 10.4 % | |
2.2 % | 11.8 % | |
8.4 % | 6.6 % | |
2.5 % | 5.8 % | |
15.2 % | 12.1 % | |
8.2 % | 8.0 % | |
0.8 % | 9.6 % | |
12.3 % | 6.1 % | |
12.2 % | 13.2 % | |
1.9 % | 4.7 % | |
-1.5 % | 6.1 % | |
11.1 % | 6.7 % | |
-14.7 % | 7.2 % | |
2.2 % | 9.0 % | |
21.6 % | 6.1 % | |
11.4 % | 8.8 % | |
8.7 % | 6.8 % | |
5.2 % | 8.9 % | |
9.7 % | 7.1 % | |
6.7 % | 10.0 % | |
10.9 % | 9.1 % | |
3.4 % | 7.3 % | |
4.6 % | 7.5 % | |
-10.3 % | 4.0 % | |
11.6 % | 5.7 % | |
Spokane-Spokane | 12.2 % | 6.9 % |
-0.4 % | 8.7 % | |
11.0 % | 6.8 % | |
6.2 % | 9.8 % | |
1.7 % | 6.7 % | |
9.1 % | 11.8 % | |
10.8 % | 6.7 % | |
12.5 % | 12.4 % | |
2.5 % | 6.5 % | |
Urban | 13.4 % | 6.7 % |
23.4 % | 6.6 % | |
17.0 % | 5.0 % | |
3.0 % | 6.2 % | |
7.7 % | 9.2 % | |
1.2 % | 8.0 % |
Methodology
Realtor.com®'s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total home sales increase (total 2025 existing-home sales vs. 2024) and annual median home sales price increase (2025 median existing-home sales price vs. 2024).
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact
Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com
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SOURCE Realtor.com
FAQ
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