Mortgage Lock-In Effect Shows Signs of Easing as New Listings Increase
According to the Realtor.com® September Housing Report, newly listed homes increased by 11.6% year-over-year, while actively listed homes rose 34.0%. This significant increase in listings is attributed to mortgage rates hitting a 24-month low following the Federal Reserve's 50 bps rate cut in September.
Key findings include:
- Median listing price decreased 1.0% to $425,000
- Median days on market increased by 7 days to 55 days
- Share of active listings with price reductions increased 0.5 percentage points to 18.4%
- Median list price per square foot increased 2.3% year-over-year and 50.8% compared to September 2019
The report suggests that the 'lock-in' effect, where homeowners with low mortgage rates were reluctant to sell, may be easing. Markets with more expensive homes saw the most growth in new listings, potentially due to the larger impact of falling mortgage rates in these areas.
Secondo il Rapporto sul Mercato Immobiliare di Realtor.com® di settembre, le nuove inserzioni di case sono aumentate del 11,6% su base annua, mentre le case attivamente in vendita sono cresciute del 34,0%. Questo significativo aumento delle inserzioni è attribuito al calo dei tassi ipotecari a un minimo di 24 mesi dopo il taglio di 50 punti base della Federal Reserve di settembre.
I principali risultati includono:
- Il prezzo mediano di listing è diminuito dell'1,0% a $425,000
- I giorni medi sul mercato sono aumentati di 7 giorni a 55 giorni
- La quota delle inserzioni attive con riduzioni di prezzo è aumentata di 0,5 punti percentuali al 18,4%
- Il prezzo mediano per metro quadrato è aumentato del 2,3% su base annua e del 50,8% rispetto a settembre 2019
Il rapporto suggerisce che l'effetto 'lock-in', in cui i proprietari di case con tassi ipotecari bassi erano riluttanti a vendere, potrebbe essere in fase di attenuazione. I mercati con case più costose hanno visto la crescita maggiore in nuove inserzioni, probabilmente a causa dell'impatto più significativo del calo dei tassi ipotecari in queste aree.
Según el Informe de Vivienda de Realtor.com® de septiembre, las casas recién listadas aumentaron un 11,6% interanual, mientras que las casas en listado activo subieron un 34,0%. Este aumento significativo en los listados se atribuye a que los tipos de interés hipotecarios alcanzaron un mínimo de 24 meses tras el recorte de 50 puntos básicos de la Reserva Federal en septiembre.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- El precio medio de los listados disminuyó un 1,0% a $425,000
- Los días medianos en el mercado aumentaron en 7 días a 55 días
- La proporción de listados activos con reducciones de precio aumentó 0,5 puntos porcentuales al 18,4%
- El precio medio por pie cuadrado aumentó un 2,3% interanual y un 50,8% en comparación con septiembre de 2019
El informe sugiere que el efecto de 'lock-in', donde los propietarios con tasas hipotecarias bajas eran reacios a vender, puede estar disminuyendo. Los mercados con casas más caras vieron el mayor crecimiento en nuevos listados, posiblemente debido al impacto mayor de la caída de las tasas hipotecarias en estas áreas.
Realtor.com®의 9월 주택 보고서에 따르면, 새로 등록된 주택이 전년 대비 11.6% 증가했으며, 현재 등록된 주택은 34.0% 상승했습니다. 이러한 목록의 급격한 증가는 9월 연방준비제도의 50bp 금리 인하 이후 모기지 금리가 24개월 최저치에 도달한 것에 기인합니다.
주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
- 중간 등록 가격이 1.0% 감소하여 $425,000에 도달했습니다
- 시장에 있는 중간 일수가 7일 증가하여 55일이 되었습니다
- 가격 인하가 있는 활성 목록의 비율이 0.5%포인트 증가하여 18.4%가 되었습니다
- 평균 평방피트당 목록 가격이 전년 대비 2.3% 증가하고 2019년 9월과 비교하여 50.8% 증가했습니다
보고서는 낮은 모기지 금리 때문에 주택 소유자들이 판매를 주저하는 'lock-in' 효과가 완화될 수 있음을 시사합니다. 더 비싼 주택 시장에서는 신규 목록에서 가장 큰 성장을 보였으며, 이는 이러한 지역에서 모기지 금리 하락의 영향이 더 컸기 때문일 수 있습니다.
Selon le Rapport sur le marché immobilier de Realtor.com® de septembre, le nombre de nouvelles maisons listées a augmenté de 11,6% par rapport à l'année précédente, tandis que le nombre de maisons en vente active a augmenté de 34,0%. Cette augmentation significative des annonces est attribuée à la baisse des taux hypothécaires à un niveau plancher depuis 24 mois, suite à la réduction de 50 points de base de la Réserve fédérale en septembre.
Les principales conclusions incluent :
- Le prix médian des annonces a diminué de 1,0% pour atteindre 425,000 $
- Le nombre moyen de jours sur le marché a augmenté de 7 jours à 55 jours
- La part des annonces actives avec des réductions de prix a augmenté de 0,5 point de pourcentage pour atteindre 18,4%
- Le prix moyen par pied carré a augmenté de 2,3% par rapport à l'année précédente et de 50,8% par rapport à septembre 2019
Le rapport suggère que l'effet de 'lock-in', où les propriétaires ayant des taux hypothécaires bas étaient réticents à vendre, pourrait s'atténuer. Les marchés avec des maisons plus chères ont connu la plus forte croissance de nouvelles annonces, probablement en raison de l'impact plus important de la baisse des taux hypothécaires dans ces régions.
Laut dem September Immobilienbericht von Realtor.com® sind die neu gelisteten Häuser um 11,6% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen, während die aktiv gelisteten Häuser um 34,0% zugenommen haben. Dieser signifikante Anstieg der Angebote wird auf die Hypothekenzinsen, die ein 24-Monats-Tief erreicht haben, zurückgeführt, nach der Zinssenkung von 50 Basispunkten der Federal Reserve im September.
Wesentliche Ergebnisse umfassen:
- Der Medianpreis für Listings sank um 1,0% auf 425.000 US-Dollar
- Die mittlere Verweildauer auf dem Markt stieg um 7 Tage auf 55 Tage
- Der Anteil aktiver Listings mit Preissenkungen stieg um 0,5 Prozentpunkte auf 18,4%
- Der mediane Listenpreis pro Quadratfuß stieg um 2,3% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr und um 50,8% im Vergleich zu September 2019
Der Bericht deutet darauf hin, dass der 'Lock-in'-Effekt, bei dem Hausbesitzer mit niedrigen Hypothekenzinsen zögerten zu verkaufen, möglicherweise nachlässt. Märkte mit teureren Häusern erlebten das größte Wachstum bei neuen Listings, was möglicherweise auf den größeren Einfluss der fallenden Hypothekenzinsen in diesen Bereichen zurückzuführen ist.
- Newly listed homes increased by 11.6% year-over-year
- Actively listed homes rose 34.0% year-over-year
- Mortgage rates hit a 24-month low
- Median list price per square foot increased 2.3% year-over-year and 50.8% compared to September 2019
- Signs of easing in the 'lock-in' effect, with more homeowners willing to sell
- Median listing price decreased 1.0% to $425,000
- Median days on market increased by 7 days to 55 days
- Share of active listings with price reductions increased 0.5 percentage points to 18.4%
Insights
The September 2024 housing report from Realtor.com reveals significant shifts in the real estate market, primarily driven by a notable decrease in mortgage rates. The 11.6% year-over-year increase in newly listed homes suggests a potential easing of the "lock-in" effect, where homeowners were hesitant to sell due to their low mortgage rates.
Key points include:
- New listings increased by 11.6% YoY, reversing the previous month's decline
- Active listings rose by 34.0% YoY, indicating improved inventory
- Median listing price decreased by
1.0% YoY to$425,000 - Homes spent an average of 55 days on market, 7 days longer than last year
The increase in inventory and longer time on market suggest a shift towards a more balanced market, potentially benefiting buyers. However, the
The data reveals a nuanced market situation with regional variations. High-cost metros like Seattle, San Jose and Washington D.C. saw the largest increases in new listings, suggesting that lower mortgage rates are having a more significant impact in expensive markets.
The "lock-in" effect appears to be diminishing, with 84% of outstanding mortgages still below 6% but more homeowners willing to list. This could lead to increased market liquidity and potentially more normalized transaction volumes.
The slowdown in market pace (55 days on market) indicates a less frenzied buying environment, which could reduce pressure on buyers. However, the substantial
Investors should watch for potential opportunities in markets showing increased inventory and longer days on market, as these conditions may lead to more negotiating power for buyers.
Newly listed homes increased by
"Sellers, especially those who are locked into a low rate, have been waiting for market conditions to change. Now that we're seeing mortgage rates down to their lowest levels in two years, there are signs of movement, with more sellers putting homes on the market even in what's typically a real estate shoulder season," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. "We expect mortgage rates to hold around
September 2024 Housing Metrics – National
Metric | Change over Sept. 2023 | Change over Sept. 2019 |
Median listing price | - | +36.0 % |
Active listings | +34.0 % | -23.2 % |
New listings | +11.6 % | -11.8 % |
Median days on market | +7 days (to 55 days) | -7 days |
Share of active listings with price reductions | +0.5 percentage points (to | -1.0 percentage points |
Median List Price Per Sq.Ft. | +2.3 % | +50.8 % |
Chiseling Away at the "Lock-in" Effect
For the past few years, the real estate market has been plagued by the "lock-in" effect, whereby homeowners, who are locked into a relatively low mortgage rate, have been staying put, yielding a negative impact on available inventory. In fact, as of mid-2024,
Metros with Highest Increase in New Listings in September 2024
Metro | % change in New Listings count YoY | Median Listing Price |
41.8 % | ||
27.1 % | ||
26.2 % | ||
25.5 % | ||
24.4 % | ||
24.2 % | ||
22.6 % | ||
21.5 % | ||
21.5 % | ||
20.1 % |
The Slowest September Since 2019
Generally, buyers can look forward to not only an increase in inventory, but a little less time constraint as homes stay on the market longer. This September, the typical home spent 55 days on the market, which is seven more days than last year and two more days than August 2024. Compared to previous years, September 2024 marked the slowest one since 2019.
While the typical home on the market this September spent 55 days on the market, in certain metros that number is even higher. A look at the top 50 metros shows a typical home in
Home Values Grow
An increase in price-per-square foot indicates the growth in value of homes, and according to data in September 2024, homes are seeing sizable price growth compared to homes listed prior to the pandemic. The median listing price per square foot increased by
"Generally speaking, relief is brewing. On the one hand, buyers are seeing not only an increase in home listings but they're also seeing homes spend more time on the market, which means more options and less frenzy to buy," said Ralph McLaughlin, Sr. Economist, Realtor.com®. "For sellers, there's been positive movement in home value as indications show an increase in price growth since before the pandemic. And, all around, the decline in mortgage rates are lowering the barrier to entry and encouraging people to get into the market once again."
September 2024 Housing Overview of the 50 Largest Metros
Metro Area | Median Listing Price | Median Listing Price YoY | Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoY | Median Listing Price vs September 2019 | Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. vs September 2019 |
-2.7 % | 1.1 % | 31.7 % | 51.2 % | ||
-6.6 % | -4.1 % | 44.1 % | 54.8 % | ||
0.0 % | 1.7 % | 12.7 % | 28.1 % | ||
0.3 % | 1.4 % | 12.5 % | 26.5 % | ||
-1.1 % | 0.7 % | 42.5 % | 59.7 % | ||
6.8 % | 6.8 % | 34.5 % | 44.9 % | ||
1.2 % | 2.0 % | 26.7 % | 57.3 % | ||
1.3 % | 2.9 % | 19.3 % | 33.3 % | ||
-9.5 % | 3.3 % | 24.9 % | 50.7 % | ||
9.3 % | 14.0 % | 32.5 % | 48.4 % | ||
-0.6 % | 4.0 % | 29.7 % | 54.2 % | ||
-2.3 % | -0.1 % | 27.4 % | 43.3 % | ||
-6.0 % | 0.3 % | 22.9 % | 43.2 % | ||
5.7 % | 5.0 % | 13.7 % | 31.9 % | ||
3.1 % | 15.0 % | 38.3 % | 62.7 % | ||
0.0 % | -0.2 % | 18.8 % | 37.2 % | ||
-1.5 % | 3.8 % | 22.7 % | 52.7 % | ||
-6.1 % | -2.2 % | 32.3 % | 50.1 % | ||
-8.4 % | -2.1 % | 24.9 % | 42.3 % | ||
-1.0 % | 3.8 % | 48.4 % | 55.1 % | ||
-1.7 % | 1.9 % | 37.8 % | 47.7 % | ||
0.6 % | 3.4 % | 20.3 % | 41.7 % | ||
8.5 % | 0.0 % | 45.4 % | 60.9 % | ||
-12.4 % | -9.1 % | 31.5 % | 42.8 % | ||
11.4 % | 7.6 % | 44.5 % | 44.4 % | ||
-2.8 % | 0.9 % | 26.1 % | 32.0 % | ||
-5.4 % | 0.7 % | 47.4 % | 61.8 % | ||
-3.0 % | -1.2 % | 14.0 % | 25.0 % | ||
6.3 % | 8.8 % | 32.4 % | 72.7 % | ||
-4.6 % | -0.5 % | 24.7 % | 40.9 % | ||
-5.6 % | -1.6 % | 34.1 % | 52.0 % | ||
8.4 % | 5.9 % | 28.8 % | 51.0 % | ||
-2.3 % | -0.5 % | 35.3 % | 51.4 % | ||
-1.5 % | 5.2 % | 22.9 % | 29.9 % | ||
-3.2 % | 0.0 % | 28.5 % | 38.3 % | ||
3.2 % | 6.1 % | 49.6 % | 47.1 % | ||
-1.4 % | 2.3 % | 23.3 % | 51.3 % | ||
0.7 % | 4.0 % | 37.1 % | 56.2 % | ||
3.5 % | 2.2 % | 45.1 % | 58.0 % | ||
13.0 % | 8.5 % | 35.9 % | 42.6 % | ||
-2.3 % | 0.7 % | 29.7 % | 37.7 % | ||
-2.8 % | -2.2 % | 18.9 % | 36.9 % | ||
-5.0 % | 1.1 % | 41.5 % | 59.1 % | ||
-8.9 % | -6.2 % | 6.6 % | 22.4 % | ||
2.4 % | 2.6 % | 27.6 % | 27.5 % | ||
-3.3 % | -0.4 % | 31.0 % | 47.8 % | ||
7.1 % | 7.1 % | 34.6 % | 31.3 % | ||
-5.5 % | -2.7 % | 47.6 % | 63.6 % | ||
2.8 % | 5.0 % | 33.8 % | 44.6 % | ||
-2.4 % | 4.4 % | 26.3 % | 53.8 % |
Metro Area | Active Listing Count YoY | New Listing Count YoY | Median Days on Market | Median Days on Market Y-Y (Days) | Price– Reduced Share | Price-Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points) |
52.7 % | 11.5 % | 50 | 7 | 17.5 % | 2.5 pp | |
22.9 % | -1.4 % | 72 | 14 | 25.0 % | -8.8 pp | |
24.7 % | 14.3 % | 38 | 1 | 27.4 % | 1.3 pp | |
29.5 % | 6.5 % | 54 | 5 | 28.2 % | 1.6 pp | |
29.8 % | 24.4 % | 31 | 0 | 16.5 % | 1.4 pp | |
13.9 % | 6.8 % | 40 | 1 | 10.8 % | 1.6 pp | |
61.0 % | 10.3 % | 48 | 8 | 19.0 % | 4.9 pp | |
13.8 % | 5.2 % | 36 | -1 | 25.9 % | 1.5 pp | |
34.5 % | 4.4 % | 38 | 6 | 25.9 % | 2.2 pp | |
11.6 % | -1.7 % | 39 | -1 | 17.3 % | 2.3 pp | |
39.2 % | 6.6 % | 37 | 7 | 21.9 % | 3.9 pp | |
49.3 % | 8.2 % | 53 | 9 | 13.6 % | 1.1 pp | |
61.7 % | 25.5 % | 50 | 12 | 20.4 % | 1.6 pp | |
16.5 % | 11.6 % | 39 | -2 | 22.2 % | 1.8 pp | |
13.5 % | 10.0 % | 33 | -5 | 17.3 % | 2.8 pp | |
29.9 % | 6.3 % | 48 | 4 | 18.5 % | -1.8 pp | |
23.8 % | 6.3 % | 45 | 6 | 17.0 % | -0.5 pp | |
61.9 % | 3.0 % | 65 | 15 | 17.0 % | 2.1 pp | |
25.3 % | 9.5 % | 52 | 2 | 17.9 % | 1.6 pp | |
47.3 % | 15.9 % | 44 | 1 | 9.4 % | 5.1 pp | |
46.9 % | 22.6 % | 46 | 1 | 24.2 % | 1.9 pp | |
31.4 % | 5.7 % | 38 | 6 | 23.3 % | 0.7 pp | |
36.5 % | -0.6 % | 62 | 16 | 15.7 % | -0.7 pp | |
67.9 % | 10.3 % | 73 | 15 | 26.2 % | 3.5 pp | |
7.8 % | 9.1 % | 31 | 1 | 20.1 % | 3.0 pp | |
18.5 % | 9.5 % | 40 | 4 | 26.4 % | -0.6 pp | |
30.6 % | 14.0 % | 52 | 15 | 17.4 % | -5.6 pp | |
19.4 % | -9.5 % | 79 | 13 | 19.1 % | -2.6 pp | |
1.6 % | 14.7 % | 57 | -3 | 14.7 % | 1.0 pp | |
37.6 % | 15.6 % | 45 | -1 | 15.5 % | 3.5 pp | |
68.6 % | 5.4 % | 65 | 15 | 4.7 % | 2.7 pp | |
14.1 % | 7.7 % | 45 | 0 | 20.1 % | 1.1 pp | |
48.8 % | 12.3 % | 56 | 17 | 25.0 % | 1.4 pp | |
21.2 % | 9.0 % | 50 | -1 | 18.2 % | 2.1 pp | |
27.9 % | 14.7 % | 58 | 13 | 13.6 % | 5.6 pp | |
32.6 % | 21.5 % | 35 | -1 | 11.2 % | 8.9 pp | |
48.4 % | 24.2 % | 51 | 8 | 17.3 % | 2.9 pp | |
27.6 % | 20.1 % | 43 | 1 | 17.2 % | 3.0 pp | |
40.3 % | 14.5 % | 54 | 5 | 28.1 % | 0.6 pp | |
16.6 % | 8.2 % | 38 | 21 | 21.5 % | -5.6 pp | |
49.0 % | 8.6 % | 44 | 7 | 13.9 % | 2.5 pp | |
22.3 % | -8.3 % | 67 | 16 | 17.5 % | -1.1 pp | |
77.2 % | 21.5 % | 40 | 5 | 25.0 % | 3.6 pp | |
27.6 % | 20.0 % | 33 | 4 | 27.4 % | 1.2 pp | |
39.3 % | 27.1 % | 31 | 2 | 28.2 % | 0.4 pp | |
67.9 % | 41.8 % | 43 | 6 | 16.5 % | 0.8 pp | |
12.4 % | 2.3 % | 45 | 7 | 10.8 % | 1.1 pp | |
74.0 % | -2.3 % | 66 | 22 | 19.0 % | 5.5 pp | |
26.4 % | 5.2 % | 41 | 5 | 25.9 % | 4.7 pp | |
23.1 % | 26.2 % | 36 | 1 | 25.9 % | -0.2 pp |
Methodology
Realtor.com housing data as of September 2024. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/row homes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com data history goes back to July 2016. The 50 largest
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact
Asees Singh press@realtor.com
View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mortgage-lock-in-effect-shows-signs-of-easing-as-new-listings-increase-302265947.html
SOURCE Realtor.com
FAQ
What was the year-over-year increase in newly listed homes for September 2024?
How did the median listing price change in September 2024 compared to the previous year?
What was the increase in actively listed homes in September 2024?
How did the median days on market change in September 2024?
What was the change in median list price per square foot in September 2024?
