Northern Trust Forecasts Moderate Global Equity Returns, Solid High Yield Bond Performance and Strength in Private Credit
Northern Trust has released its Capital Market Assumptions 2025 Edition, projecting moderate global equity performance and improved returns in high yield bonds and private credit over the next decade. The report forecasts 7.5% annualized returns for U.S. equities, 5.8% for developed markets ex-U.S., and 6.4% for emerging markets.
In fixed income, the forecast shows 4.7% returns for U.S. investment grade bonds and 5.6% for U.S. high yield bonds. Alternative investments are expected to perform strongly, with private credit at 8.4% and private equity at 10.1%. Global listed infrastructure is projected at 6.6%.
The report identifies three key trends shaping the next decade: AI-Enabled Productivity, Navigating the Energy Transition, and Globalization: Bent, Not Broken. These factors are expected to create divergent paths in global economic growth.
Northern Trust ha pubblicato la sua edizione 2025 delle Assunzioni di Mercato dei Capitali, prevedendo una performance moderata delle azioni globali e un miglioramento dei rendimenti in obbligazioni ad alto rendimento e credito privato nel prossimo decennio. Il rapporto prevede rendimenti annualizzati del 7,5% per le azioni statunitensi, 5,8% per i mercati sviluppati esclusi gli Stati Uniti e 6,4% per i mercati emergenti.
Nel reddito fisso, la previsione mostra rendimenti pari al 4,7% per le obbligazioni statunitensi di qualità e 5,6% per le obbligazioni ad alto rendimento statunitensi. Gli investimenti alternativi dovrebbero avere performance forti, con il credito privato al 8,4% e il private equity al 10,1%. L'infrastruttura globale quotata è prevista al 6,6%.
Il rapporto identifica tre tendenze chiave che modelleranno il prossimo decennio: Produttività Abilitata dall'IA, Navigare nella Transizione Energetica e Globalizzazione: Piegata, Non Distrutta. Questi fattori dovrebbero creare percorsi divergenti nella crescita economica globale.
Northern Trust ha publicado su edición 2025 de Suposiciones del Mercado de Capitales, proyectando un rendimiento moderado de las acciones globales y un aumento en los retornos de bonos de alto rendimiento y crédito privado en la próxima década. El informe pronostica rendimientos anualizados del 7.5% para acciones de EE. UU., 5.8% para mercados desarrollados excluyendo EE. UU., y 6.4% para mercados emergentes.
En renta fija, la previsión muestra 4.7% de rendimientos para bonos de grado de inversión de EE. UU. y 5.6% para bonos de alto rendimiento de EE. UU. Se espera que las inversiones alternativas tengan un rendimiento fuerte, con crédito privado al 8.4% y capital privado al 10.1%. La infraestructura global cotizada se proyecta en 6.6%.
El informe identifica tres tendencias clave que darán forma a la próxima década: Productividad Habilitada por IA, Navegando la Transición Energética, y Globalización: Doblada, No Rota. Se espera que estos factores creen caminos divergentes en el crecimiento económico global.
Northern Trust는 2025년판 자본 시장 가정을 발표하며, 향후 10년 동안 글로벌 주식의 변동성이 적고 고수익 채권 및 개인 신용의 개선된 수익률을 예상하고 있습니다. 보고서는 미국 주식에 대해 연평균 7.5%의 수익률, 미국 외 선진 시장에 대해 5.8%, 신흥 시장에 대해 6.4%의 수익률을 예측하고 있습니다.
고정 수입 부문에서는 미국 투자 등급 채권에 4.7%의 수익률, 미국 고수익 채권에 5.6%의 수익률을 보일 것으로 예상됩니다. 대체 투자는 개인 신용에서 8.4%, 개인 자본에서 10.1%의 강력한 성과를 낼 것으로 보입니다. 글로벌 상장 인프라의 예상 수익률은 6.6%입니다.
보고서는 향후 10년을 형성할 세 가지 주요 트렌드를 규명합니다: AI 기반 생산성, 에너지 전환 탐색, 그리고 글로벌화: 구부러졌지만 부서지지 않음. 이러한 요소가 글로벌 경제 성장의 다양한 경로를 생성할 것으로 기대됩니다.
Northern Trust a publié son édition 2025 des Hypothèses de Marché des Capitaux, projetant une performance modérée des actions mondiales et des rendements améliorés dans les obligations à haut rendement et le crédit privé au cours de la prochaine décennie. Le rapport prévoit des rendements annualisés de 7,5% pour les actions américaines, 5,8% pour les marchés développés hors États-Unis, et 6,4% pour les marchés émergents.
Dans le revenu fixe, la prévision montre des rendements de 4,7% pour les obligations de qualité américaines et 5,6% pour les obligations à haut rendement américaines. Les investissements alternatifs devraient bien performer, avec le crédit privé à 8,4% et le capital-investissement à 10,1%. L'infrastructure mondiale cotée est projetée à 6,6%.
Le rapport identifie trois tendances clés qui façonneront la prochaine décennie : Productivité Activée par l'IA, Naviguer dans la Transition Énergétique, et Mondialisation : Pliée, Mais Non Cassée. Ces facteurs devraient créer des trajectoires divergentes dans la croissance économique mondiale.
Northern Trust hat die Ausgabe 2025 seiner Kapitalmarkthypothesen veröffentlicht, die eine moderate globale Aktienperformance und verbesserte Renditen bei Hochzinsanleihen und privatem Kredit im nächsten Jahrzehnt prognostiziert. Der Bericht sagt jährliche Renditen von 7,5% für US-Aktien, 5,8% für entwickelte Märkte außerhalb der USA und 6,4% für Schwellenmärkte voraus.
Im festverzinslichen Bereich zeigt die Prognose 4,7% Renditen für US-Investment-Grade-Anleihen und 5,6% für US-Hochzinsanleihen. Alternative Investments werden voraussichtlich stark abschneiden, mit privatem Kredit bei 8,4% und Private Equity bei 10,1%. Die globale Infrastruktur auf dem Markt soll 6,6% erreichen.
Der Bericht identifiziert drei entscheidende Trends, die das nächste Jahrzehnt prägen werden: KI-gestützte Produktivität, Navigation durch die Energiewende und Globalisierung: Gebogen, Nicht Gebrochen. Diese Faktoren werden voraussichtlich divergente Wege im globalen Wirtschaftswachstum schaffen.
- Projected strong returns in private equity (10.1%) and private credit (8.4%)
- Solid U.S. equity returns forecast (7.5% annualized)
- High yield bonds expected to deliver 5.6% returns with strong fundamentals
- AI adoption expected to enhance economic growth and productivity
- Lower returns projected for developed markets ex-U.S. (5.8%) compared to U.S. markets
- Credit spreads expected to increase from current levels
- Moderate performance expectations compared to recent years' highs
Insights
Northern Trust's latest capital market forecast presents a compelling vision of investment opportunities through 2035, with several noteworthy implications for portfolio strategy. The projected 7.5% annualized return for U.S. equities versus 5.8% for developed ex-U.S. markets suggests a continuation of U.S. market leadership, though at more modest levels than recent years.
The forecast's most striking aspect is the robust outlook for private markets, with private credit at 8.4% and private equity at 10.1%. These projections reflect structural advantages in private markets, including the ability to capitalize on AI transformation and M&A opportunities with less short-term volatility than public markets. This suggests investors may need to increase their private market allocations to achieve return targets.
The three identified themes - AI productivity, energy transition and evolving globalization - create a complex but potentially rewarding investment landscape. The 6.6% forecast for global listed infrastructure is particularly interesting, as it captures both the AI-driven surge in electricity demand and the massive capital requirements of the energy transition.
Fixed income projections of 4.7% for investment grade and 5.6% for high yield indicate an attractive risk-reward profile for credit investors, especially considering current yield levels. This suggests bonds could resume their traditional portfolio role while offering better absolute returns than in the recent past.
These forecasts paint a picture of a market environment where thoughtful security selection and diversification across public and private markets will be important for achieving investment objectives. The moderate return expectations across traditional assets emphasize the importance of accessing structural growth themes and alternative sources of return.
Trends in AI, energy and globalization cited as key elements affecting economic growth globally during next decade
The CMA also identifies three key trends likely to affect markets and the global economy over the next decade – AI-Enabled Productivity, Navigating the Energy Transition and Globalization: Bent, Not Broken – that provide the foundation for returns of stocks, bonds, real assets and alternatives.
“The next 10 years will present investors with a complex landscape of market and economic trends to navigate,” Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM) Global Chief Investment Officer Angelo Manioudakis said. “As economic growth moderates, we think investors will look to uncover future drivers of growth. We believe the adoption of AI, new energy sources and trends in global trade will cause divergent paths in economic growth globally.”
Over the coming decade, Northern Trust forecasts the following long-term average annualized return expectations for a wide range of asset classes:
-
Equities:
7.5% annualized return forU.S. equities and5.8% annualized return for developed markets ex-U.S. equities, as we expectU.S. stocks to continue to outperform European stocks, and6.4% annualized return for emerging markets. -
Fixed Income:
4.7% annualized return forU.S. investment grade bonds and5.6% annualized return forU.S. high yield bonds, with strong fundamentals supporting high yield securities. -
Real Assets:
6.6% annualized return for global listed infrastructure, where utilities could benefit from a surge in electricity demand from AI. -
Alternatives:
8.4% annualized return for private credit and10.1% annualized return for private equity, supported by AI opportunities and potentially more mergers and acquisitions.
“Over the next decade, we expect equity returns to moderate from the highs of the last couple of years. In the bond market, we believe credit spreads will increase from current low levels but stay below the long-term average, supported by stable economic growth and solid credit fundamentals,” NTAM Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation Anwiti Bahuguna said. “Private investments may prove to offer even more attractive returns relative to the public equity and bond markets. Declining interest rates will drive demand for private credit to boost M&A activity, while AI and other technology advances will push low double-digit growth in private equity and venture capital.”
The CMA’s asset class forecasts are driven by three key themes that Northern Trust investment experts see affecting markets and the economy over the next 10 years:
- AI-Enabled Productivity: As companies invest in artificial intelligence, AI-enabled productivity will enhance economic growth. This should help countries combat shifting demographic trends that potentially damage productivity, while also boosting economic growth.
- Navigating the Energy Transition: Global energy demand continues to increase, along with a desire for energy independence. Global economies must navigate policy, technological innovations and finance mechanisms to meet those demands. How energy is generated or accessed over the next decade will be critical to long-term economic, climate and investment impacts.
- Globalization: Bent, Not Broken: Globalization may have slowed but it has not reversed. Geopolitical tensions are morphing supply chains and trade pacts, which will lead to risks and opportunities over the next decade. This may present investors with the opportunity to be increasingly selective.
Rooted in deep capital market analysis, the CMA is an annual report of long-term average annualized return expectations for a range of asset classes, including fixed income, equities, real assets and alternatives. The CMA informs Northern Trust’s investment decisions and strategic asset allocation recommendations. The full report, including detailed 10-year asset class forecasts, is available at https://www.northerntrust.com/insights-research/2025/investment-managment/capital-markets-assumption-2025.
About Northern Trust Asset Management
Northern Trust Asset Management is a global investment manager that helps investors navigate changing market environments in efforts to realize their long-term objectives. Entrusted with
Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (
About Northern Trust
Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking to corporations, institutions, affluent families and individuals. Founded in
Northern Trust Corporation, Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street,
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Camilla Greene
+44 (0) 207 982 2176
Camilla.Greene@ntrs.com
Simon Ansell
+44 (0) 207 982 1016
Simon.Ansell@ntrs.com
US & Canada Contact:
Joanne Zalatoris
+1 (312) 900-3462
Joanne.Zalatoris@ntrs.com
Source: Northern Trust Corporation
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