Altria Presents as Part of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference; Reaffirms 2025 Full-Year Earnings Guidance

Rhea-AI Summary

Altria Group (NYSE: MO) reaffirmed its 2025 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $5.22 to $5.37, representing a 2% to 5% growth from a $5.12 base in 2024. The guidance accounts for one fewer shipping day in 2025's first quarter and assumes impact from illicit e-vapor market enforcement.

The company's outlook includes reinvestment of cost savings from their Optimize & Accelerate initiative and factors in lower expected net periodic benefit income. The guidance considers various scenarios including economic conditions, adult tobacco consumer dynamics, and regulatory developments. Planned investments support Altria's Vision through marketplace activities for smoke-free products and continued research and development.

The guidance excludes certain items such as restructuring charges, asset impairment, acquisition-related items, and litigation matters that management considers outside of underlying operations.

Positive

• Projected EPS growth of 2-5% for 2025
• Continued investment in smoke-free product development
• Strong cash flows and flexible balance sheet supporting investments and shareholder returns

Negative

• One fewer shipping day in 2025 affecting first quarter results
• Lower expected net periodic benefit income
• Ongoing challenges from illicit e-vapor market competition

Insights

Financial Analyst

Altria's reaffirmed 2025 guidance reveals several critical insights for investors. The projected 2-5% EPS growth to $5.22-$5.37 demonstrates management's confident outlook despite significant industry headwinds. This modest but steady growth trajectory suggests effective execution of their dual strategy: harvesting their combustible tobacco business while investing in smoke-free alternatives.

The guidance's underlying assumptions merit careful analysis. The company's ability to maintain its outlook while facing challenges from illicit e-vapor products, inflation pressures, and shifting consumer preferences indicates robust pricing power in their core cigarette business. Their Marlboro brand continues to generate substantial cash flows, funding both shareholder returns and their smoke-free transition.

The Optimize & Accelerate initiative represents a strategic pivot, with cost savings being channeled into smoke-free product development and commercialization. This calculated approach balances near-term profitability with long-term sustainability, though the transition timeline remains uncertain. Their diversified smoke-free portfolio, including NJOY e-vapor products and on!® nicotine pouches, positions them across multiple growth categories.

Notably, the guidance incorporates various risk factors, including economic uncertainties and regulatory challenges, suggesting conservative financial planning. The company's strong balance sheet and consistent cash flows provide a buffer against these uncertainties while supporting their strategic initiatives and shareholder returns.

RICHMOND, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Altria Group, Inc. (Altria) (NYSE: MO) is participating in the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference in Orlando, Florida today. Billy Gifford, Altria’s Chief Executive Officer, and Sal Mancuso, Altria’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will highlight our exciting progress toward our Vision, discuss how our traditional tobacco businesses continue to support our strategies and provide more detail on our long-term growth aspirations.

“We believe our actions over time have positioned Altria to win in U.S. nicotine over the long term,” said Billy Gifford. “We have a demonstrated commitment to responsibility, an extensive understanding of U.S. nicotine consumers and a compelling portfolio with products in each of today’s smoke-free categories. We also have significant cash flows and a flexible balance sheet that support our investments and cash returns to shareholders.”

Remarks and Presentation

The presentation will be webcast live on www.altria.com in a listen-only mode, beginning at approximately 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. A copy of the business presentation, prepared remarks and a replay of the webcast will be available at www.altria.com.

2025 Full-Year Guidance

We reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2025 full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) in a range of $5.22 to $5.37, representing a growth rate of 2% to 5% from a base of $5.12 in 2024. Our guidance includes the impact of one fewer shipping day in 2025, which occurs in the first quarter, assumes limited impact on combustible and e-vapor product volumes from enforcement efforts in the illicit e-vapor market and includes the reinvestment of anticipated cost savings related to our previously announced Optimize & Accelerate initiative (Initiative). The guidance range also includes lower expected net periodic benefit income.

While our 2025 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance accounts for a range of scenarios, the external environment remains dynamic. We will continue to monitor conditions related to (i) the economy, including the cumulative impact of inflation, (ii) adult tobacco consumer (ATC) dynamics, including purchasing patterns and adoption of smoke-free products, (iii) illicit product enforcement and (iv) regulatory, litigation and legislative developments.

Our 2025 full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance range includes planned investments in support of our Vision, such as (i) marketplace activities in support of our smoke-free products and (ii) continued smoke-free product research, development and regulatory preparation expenses. This guidance range excludes the per share impacts that we expect to record in 2025 related to charges associated with our Initiative.

Our full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance range excludes the impact of certain income and expense items that our management believes are not part of underlying operations. These items may include, for example, loss on early extinguishment of debt, restructuring charges, asset impairment charges, acquisition, disposition and integration-related items, equity investment-related special items, certain income tax items, charges associated with tobacco and health and certain other litigation items, and resolutions of certain non-participating manufacturer (NPM) adjustment disputes under the Master Settlement Agreement (NPM Adjustment Items). See Schedule 1 below for the income and expense items for the full-year 2024.

Our management cannot estimate on a forward-looking basis the impact of certain income and expense items, including those items noted in the preceding paragraph, on our reported diluted EPS because these items, which could be significant, may be unusual or infrequent, are difficult to predict and may be highly variable. As a result, we do not provide a corresponding U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) measure for, or reconciliation to, our adjusted diluted EPS guidance.

Altria’s Profile

We have a leading portfolio of tobacco products for U.S. tobacco consumers age 21+. Our Vision is to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future (Vision). We are Moving Beyond Smoking™, leading the way in moving adult smokers away from cigarettes by taking action to transition millions to potentially less harmful choices - believing it is a substantial opportunity for adult tobacco consumers, our businesses and society.

Our wholly owned subsidiaries include leading manufacturers of both combustible and smoke-free products. In combustibles, we own Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), the most profitable U.S. cigarette manufacturer, and John Middleton Co. (Middleton), a leading U.S. cigar manufacturer. Our smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), the leading global moist smokeless tobacco (MST) manufacturer, Helix Innovations LLC (Helix), a leading manufacturer of oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY, LLC (NJOY), an e-vapor manufacturer with a commercialized product portfolio fully covered by marketing granted orders from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Additionally, we have a majority-owned joint venture, Horizon Innovations LLC (Horizon), for the U.S. marketing and commercialization of heated tobacco stick products.

Our equity investments include Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI), the world’s largest brewer, and Cronos Group Inc. (Cronos), a leading Canadian cannabinoid company.

The brand portfolios of our operating companies include Marlboro®, Black & Mild®, Copenhagen®, Skoal®, on!® and NJOY®. Trademarks related to Altria referenced in this release are the property of Altria or our subsidiaries or are used with permission.

Learn more about Altria at www.altria.com and follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter), Facebook and LinkedIn.

Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements

This release contains projections of future results and other forward-looking statements that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Important factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements included in this release are described in our publicly filed reports, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023. These factors include the following:

• our inability to anticipate and respond to changes in ATC preferences and purchase behavior;
• our inability to compete effectively;
• the growth of the e-vapor category, including illicit disposable e-vapor products, which contributes to reductions in domestic cigarette consumption levels and shipment volume;
• the risks associated with illicit trade in tobacco products (including counterfeit products, illegally imported products, illicit disposable e-vapor products and oral nicotine pouch products) and the sale of products designed to avoid the regulatory framework for tobacco products, such as products using nicotine analogues, each of which contributes to reductions in the consumption levels and shipment volumes of our businesses’ products;
• our failure to develop and commercialize innovative products, including tobacco products that may reduce health risks relative to other tobacco products and appeal to ATCs;
• changes, including in macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions (including inflation), that result in shifts in ATC disposable income and purchasing behavior, including choosing lower-priced and discount brands or products, and reductions in shipment volumes;
• unfavorable outcomes with respect to litigation proceedings or any governmental investigations, including significant monetary and non-monetary remedies and importation bans;
• the risks associated with significant federal, state and local government actions, including FDA regulatory actions and inaction, and various private sector actions;
• increases in tobacco product-related taxes;
• our failure to complete or manage successfully strategic transactions, including our acquisition of NJOY and other acquisitions, dispositions, joint ventures and investments in third parties, or realize the anticipated benefits of such transactions;
• significant changes in price, availability or quality of tobacco, other raw materials or component parts, including as a result of changes in macroeconomic, climate and geopolitical conditions;
• our reliance on a few significant facilities and a small number of key suppliers, distributors and distribution chain service providers and the risks associated with an extended disruption at a facility or in service by a supplier, distributor or distribution chain service provider;
• the risk that we may be required to write down intangible assets, including trademarks and goodwill, due to impairment;
• the risk that we could decide, or be required, to recall products;
• the various risks related to health epidemics and pandemics and the measures that international, federal, state and local governments, agencies, law enforcement and health authorities implement to address them;
• our inability to attract and retain a highly skilled and diverse workforce due to the decreasing social acceptance of tobacco usage, tobacco control actions and other factors;
• the risks associated with the various U.S. and foreign laws and regulations to which we are subject due to our international business operations;
• the risks concerning a challenge to our tax positions, an increase in the income tax rate or other changes to federal or state tax laws;
• the risks associated with legal and regulatory requirements related to climate change and other environmental sustainability matters;
• disruption and uncertainty in the credit and capital markets, including risk of losing access to these markets;
• a downgrade or potential downgrade of our credit ratings;
• our inability to attract investors due to increasing investor expectations of our performance relating to corporate responsibility factors, including environmental, social and governance matters;
• the failure of our, or our key service providers’ or key suppliers’, information systems to function as intended, or cyber-attacks or security breaches affecting us or our key service providers or key suppliers;
• our failure, or the failure of our key service providers or key suppliers, to comply with laws related to personal data protection, privacy, artificial intelligence and information security;
• our ability to recognize the expected cost savings in connection with the Initiative or successfully reinvest those savings in our businesses in support of our Vision and 2028 Enterprise Goals, in each case, in the expected manner or timeframe or at all;
• the risk that the expected benefits of our investment in ABI may not materialize in the expected manner or timeframe or at all, including due to macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; foreign currency exchange rates; ABI’s business results; ABI’s share price; impairment losses on the value of our investment; our incurrence of additional tax liabilities related to our investment in ABI; and potential reductions in the number of directors that we can have appointed to the ABI board of directors; and
• the risks associated with our investment in Cronos, including legal, regulatory and reputational risks and the risk that the expected benefits of the transaction may not materialize in the expected manner or timeframe or at all.

You should understand that it is not possible to predict or identify all factors and risks. Consequently, you should not consider the foregoing list to be complete. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that we may make from time to time except as required by applicable law. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to Altria or any person acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements referenced above.

Schedule 1
ALTRIA GROUP, INC.
and Subsidiaries
Reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP Measures
(dollars in millions, except per share data)
(Unaudited)
	Earnings before Income Taxes			Provision for Income Taxes			Net Earnings			Diluted EPS
2024 Reported	$	13,658		$	2,394		$	11,264		$	6.54
NPM Adjustment Items		(27	)		(7	)		(20	)		(0.01	)
Acquisition, disposition and integration-related items		(2,527	)		(665	)		(1,862	)		(1.08	)
Asset impairment, exit and implementation costs		422			107			315			0.18
Tobacco and health and certain other litigation items		101			25			76			0.04
ABI-related special items		2			—			2			—
Cronos-related special items		18			3			15			0.01
Income tax items		—			969			(969	)		(0.56	)
2024 Adjusted for Special Items	$	11,647		$	2,826		$	8,821			5.12

While we report our financial results in accordance with GAAP, our management reviews certain financial results, including diluted EPS, on an adjusted basis, which excludes certain income and expense items, including those items noted under “2025 Full-Year Guidance” in the release. Our management does not view any of these special items to be part of our underlying results as they may be highly variable, may be unusual or infrequent, are difficult to predict and can distort underlying business trends and results. Our management believes that adjusted financial measures provide useful additional insight into underlying business trends and results and provide a more meaningful comparison of year-over-year results. Our management uses adjusted financial measures for planning, forecasting and evaluating business and financial performance, including allocating capital and other resources and evaluating results relative to employee compensation targets. These adjusted financial measures are not required by, or calculated in accordance with GAAP, and may not be calculated the same as similarly titled measures used by other companies. These adjusted financial measures should thus be considered as supplemental in nature and not considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP.

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Source: Altria Group, Inc.

FAQ

What is Altria's (MO) projected EPS guidance for 2025?

Altria projects 2025 full-year adjusted diluted EPS between $5.22 and $5.37, representing a growth rate of 2% to 5% from a base of $5.12 in 2024.

How will shipping days affect Altria's (MO) 2025 performance?

Altria's 2025 guidance accounts for one fewer shipping day in the first quarter of 2025, which will impact their results.

What are the main risks to Altria's (MO) 2025 guidance?

Key risks include economic conditions, inflation impacts, adult tobacco consumer dynamics, illicit product enforcement, and regulatory developments.

How is Altria (MO) investing in smoke-free products?

Altria is investing in marketplace activities to support smoke-free products and continuing product research, development, and regulatory preparation expenses.