Mercer Projects a Deficit of Over 100,000 Healthcare Workers in the US by 2028, Worsening Health Disparities and Impacting Patient Care
Mercer, a Marsh McLennan business (NYSE: MMC), projects a deficit of over 100,000 healthcare workers in the US by 2028, potentially worsening health disparities and impacting patient care. The report highlights factors contributing to the decline in labor supply, including burnout, resignations, an aging population, and lagging wages. Key findings include:
1. California expected to face a shortage of over 2,500 primary care physicians
2. Projected deficit of over 73,000 nursing assistants nationwide
3. Surplus of nearly 30,000 registered nurses (RNs) by 2028
4. Home health and personal care aides supply to exceed demand by 48,000
5. Nurse practitioners to have the fastest growth rate (3.5%) but still face shortages
The analysis emphasizes the need for healthcare systems to develop comprehensive workforce strategies to address these shortages and ensure continued patient care.
Mercer, una società di Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), prevede un deficit di oltre 100.000 operatori sanitari negli Stati Uniti entro il 2028, che potrebbe aggravare le disuguaglianze sanitarie e influenzare l'assistenza ai pazienti. Il rapporto evidenzia i fattori che contribuiscono al calo dell'offerta di lavoro, tra cui il burnout, le dimissioni, un'invecchiamento della popolazione e salari stagnanti. I principali risultati includono:
1. La California si aspetta di affrontare una carenza di oltre 2.500 medici di medicina generale
2. Deficit previsto di oltre 73.000 assistenti sanitari a livello nazionale
3. Eccedenza di quasi 30.000 infermieri registrati (RN) entro il 2028
4. Offerta di assistenti sanitari a domicilio e cura personale superiore alla domanda di 48.000
5. Gli infermieri pratici avranno il tasso di crescita più veloce (3,5%) ma continuano a fronteggiare carenze
L'analisi sottolinea la necessità per i sistemi sanitari di sviluppare strategie di lavoro complete per affrontare queste carenze e garantire una continua assistenza ai pazienti.
Mercer, un negocio de Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), proyecta un déficit de más de 100,000 trabajadores de la salud en EE. UU. para 2028, lo que podría agravar las disparidades en salud e impactar la atención al paciente. El informe resalta los factores que contribuyen a la disminución de la oferta laboral, incluyendo el agotamiento, las renuncias, el envejecimiento de la población y los salarios rezagados. Las conclusiones clave incluyen:
1. Se espera que California enfrente una escasez de más de 2,500 médicos de atención primaria
2. Déficit proyectado de más de 73,000 asistentes de enfermería a nivel nacional
3. Superávit de casi 30,000 enfermeras registradas (RN) para 2028
4. La oferta de asistentes de salud a domicilio y de cuidado personal superará la demanda en 48,000
5. Los enfermeros practicantes tendrán la tasa de crecimiento más rápida (3.5%) pero aún enfrentarán escasez
El análisis enfatiza la necesidad de que los sistemas de salud desarrollen estrategias laborales integrales para abordar estas carencias y asegurar la atención continua a los pacientes.
머서(Mercer), 마쉬 맥렌넌(Marsh McLennan)의 사업체(뉴욕증권거래소: MMC)는 2028년까지 미국에서 10만 명 이상의 의료 인력 부족을 예상하며, 이는 건강 불균형을 악화시키고 환자 치료에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 이 보고서에서는 노동 공급 감소에 기여하는 요인으로 탈진, 사직, 고령화 인구 및 정체된 임금 등을 강조합니다. 주요 발견 내용은 다음과 같습니다:
1. 캘리포니아는 2,500명 이상의 1차 진료 의사 부족에 직면할 것으로 예상
2. 전국적으로 73,000명 이상의 간호 보조원의 부족이 예상됨
3. 2028년까지 약 30,000명의 등록 간호사(RN)가 남을 것으로 보임
4. 홈 헬스 및 개인 돌봄 보조원의 공급이 48,000명 초과할 것으로 예상됨
5. 간호사 개업자가 가장 빠른 성장률(3.5%)을 가질 것이지만 여전히 부족 상태를 겪음
분석은 의료 시스템이 이러한 부족을 해결하고 지속적인 환자 치료를 보장하기 위한 포괄적인 인력 전략을 개발할 필요성을 강조합니다.
Mercer, une entreprise de Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), projette un décalage de plus de 100 000 travailleurs de la santé aux États-Unis d'ici 2028, ce qui pourrait aggraver les inégalités en matière de santé et affecter les soins aux patients. Le rapport souligne les facteurs contribuant au déclin de l'offre de travail, notamment l'épuisement professionnel, les démissions, le vieillissement de la population et les salaires stagnants. Les principales conclusions incluent :
1. La Californie devrait faire face à une pénurie de plus de 2 500 médecins de soins primaires
2. Décalage projeté de plus de 73 000 aides-soignants à l'échelle nationale
3. Surcroît de près de 30 000 infirmiers diplômés (ID) d'ici 2028
4. L'offre d'aides de santé à domicile et de soins personnels dépassera la demande de 48 000
5. Les infirmiers praticiens connaîtront le taux de croissance le plus rapide (3,5 %), mais seront toujours confrontés à des pénuries
L'analyse souligne la nécessité pour les systèmes de santé de développer des stratégies de main-d'œuvre complètes pour remédier à ces pénuries et assurer une continuité des soins aux patients.
Mercer, ein Unternehmen von Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), prognostiziert einen Defizit von über 100.000 Gesundheitsarbeitskräften in den USA bis 2028, was voraussichtlich die gesundheitlichen Ungleichheiten verschärfen und die Patientenversorgung beeinträchtigen wird. Der Bericht hebt die Faktoren hervor, die zum Rückgang des Arbeitsangebots beitragen, einschließlich Burnout, Kündigungen, einer alternden Bevölkerung und stagnierenden Löhnen. Zu den wichtigsten Ergebnissen gehören:
1. Kalifornien wird voraussichtlich mit einem Mangel von über 2.500 Hausärzten konfrontiert sein
2. Voraussichtliches Defizit von über 73.000 Pflegehilfskräften landesweit
3. Ein Überschuss von fast 30.000 registrierten Krankenschwestern (RN) bis 2028
4. Das Angebot an Pflege- und Hilfeleistungen wird die Nachfrage um 48.000 übersteigen
5. Die Zahl der praktischen Krankenschwestern wird am schnellsten wachsen (3,5%), wird aber dennoch mit Engpässen konfrontiert sein
Die Analyse betont die Notwendigkeit für die Gesundheitssysteme, umfassende Personalstrategien zu entwickeln, um diese Engpässe anzugehen und eine fortlaufende Patientenversorgung sicherzustellen.
- Projected surplus of nearly 30,000 registered nurses (RNs) by 2028
- Home health and personal care aides supply expected to exceed demand by 48,000 workers
- Nurse practitioners projected to have the fastest growth rate at 3.5%
- Projected deficit of over 100,000 healthcare workers in the US by 2028
- Expected shortage of over 2,500 primary care physicians in California
- Projected deficit of over 73,000 nursing assistants nationwide
- Potential disruption in preventative care delivery due to combined shortages of nurse practitioners and physicians
- Potential exacerbation of health disparities and impact on patient care
Insights
The projected deficit of over 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028 is a critical issue that will have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. healthcare system. This shortage, particularly in primary care subspecialties and nursing assistants, will likely lead to:
- Increased wait times for patients
- Higher healthcare costs due to supply-demand imbalance
- Potential quality of care issues due to overworked staff
- Widening health disparities, especially in rural areas
The surplus of registered nurses (
This projected labor shortage presents significant economic challenges for the healthcare industry. The imbalance between supply and demand will likely drive up wages, particularly for in-demand roles like nursing assistants (projected deficit of
- Increased healthcare costs for patients and insurers
- Pressure on hospital margins and financial stability
- Potential consolidation of healthcare providers to manage costs
The
The projected healthcare worker shortage demands urgent policy interventions to ensure equitable access to care. Key policy considerations include:
- Increasing funding for healthcare education and training programs
- Implementing loan forgiveness programs to attract workers to underserved areas
- Streamlining licensure processes for international healthcare professionals
- Developing policies to address burnout and improve work conditions
State-level disparities, such as California's projected shortage of
Even before COVID-19, the US healthcare labor market faced challenges with the demand for professionals in healthcare occupations outpacing supply. Mercer’s new report highlights how factors such as accelerated resignations, burnout among healthcare workers, an aging population and wages that lag the broader labor market are contributing to the decline in labor supply in certain states, particularly for primary care physicians, advanced practice providers1 and nurses.
“A shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers will exacerbate existing disparities in healthcare access in certain states,” said Dan Lezotte, a Partner in Mercer’s US Workforce Strategy and Analytics Practice. “It is imperative that healthcare systems take action and develop strategies to address shortages so patient care is not impacted.”
The analysis emphasizes the importance of having a strong workforce strategy to compete both with other healthcare organizations and with employers in other industries. To combat labor shortages, employers will need to develop comprehensive strategic plans and innovative tactics for attracting and retaining talent, encompassing strong compensation and benefits packages and creative ways of sourcing talent, redesigning work, optimizing schedules and more.
It is also crucial for healthcare systems and governments to work together to address specific labor gaps across locations and occupations, including subspecialties within healthcare labor, such as physicians who specialize in women’s health or young children. Through collaboration, states can close these gaps and create stronger healthcare systems.
State disparities in primary care subspecialties
The analysis finds that access to qualified primary care will vary across the US. Deficits in specialized primary care physicians — such as obstetrician-gynecologists (OB-GYNs), pediatricians and family medicine doctors — will be acute in certain states. For example, despite an overall surplus of healthcare workers,
A severe shortage of nursing assistants expected nationally
Nursing assistants have the biggest projected deficit over any other analyzed healthcare occupation, signaling the need to improve talent attraction and retention strategies for this segment. By 2028,
Surplus of registered nurses (RNs) and home health and personal care aides (HHAs)
At a national level, the supply of RNs is projected to outpace demand, resulting in an estimated surplus of nearly 30,000 RNs by 2028. However, employers in states such as
Encouragingly, the labor supply of HHAs is projected to exceed demand nationally by almost 48,000 workers by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of
Nurse practitioners on the rise but shortages expected
Nurse practitioners are expected to have the fastest growth rate (
William Self, a Partner and Mercer’s Global Workforce Strategy and Analytics Leader, said, “American healthcare workers are under enormous strain. Burnout, under-compensation and wage stagnation have had material impacts on the supply of healthcare labor.”
Mr. Self continued, “Prolonged inflation in healthcare costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some healthcare systems. The inability to attract the right healthcare labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”
View an interactive map of Mercer’s US healthcare labor projections across a sample of healthcare occupations here.
About the Report
The Future of the
About
1 Advanced practice providers, such as nurse practitioners or physician assistants, perform medical activities typically performed by a physician.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240829559938/en/
Media contact:
Ashleigh Jang
+1 917 647 0070
Ashleigh.Jang@Mercer.com
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