Ramaco Resources, Inc. Provides Guidance Update on Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results
- Ramaco Resources, Inc. reports a robust fourth quarter with net income projected to be $28 - $30 million and Adjusted EBITDA to be $56 - $58 million, marking a 50% increase from the previous quarter.
- The company achieved a ratable annualized sales run-rate of 4 million tons in 2023, with overall production reaching 3.2 million tons.
- Ramaco anticipates net income for 2023 to be $80 - $82 million, with cash mine costs improving to under $100 per ton for the fourth quarter.
- Record coal sales of approximately 3.5 million tons in 2023 at an average price of $169 per ton demonstrate a significant increase from the previous year.
- Ramaco raises its 2024 sales and production guidance, with commitments now at 3.8 million tons, reflecting a 90% increase since the last guidance update.
- The company purchases a coal preparation plant for the Maben Complex, with plans to relocate and expand the facility, aiming to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.
- Ramaco expects the Maben plant to be operational by the fourth quarter of 2024, reducing overall trucking and mine cash costs at the complex.
- None.
Insights
The reported increase in Ramaco Resources' full-year guidance for 2024, along with the announcement of the purchase of a preparation plant, suggests a strategic move to enhance operational efficiency and capitalize on market conditions. The significant jump in net income and Adjusted EBITDA from Q3 to Q4 2023, by nearly 50%, indicates robust financial health and operational execution. This performance is particularly notable in the context of the coal industry, where price volatility and regulatory pressures often impact profitability.
The company's ability to maintain a high sales run-rate, approaching 4 million tons, while reducing coal inventory levels, demonstrates effective demand management and inventory control. The increase in sales commitments for 2024, which are now 90% above prior guidance, reflects strong market demand for metallurgical coal and the company's competitive positioning. This is further underscored by the sales mix, which strategically balances domestic fixed-price contracts and export index-priced business, providing both stability and exposure to market prices.
Investors should note the potential for increased operational leverage from the acquired preparation plant, which is set to reduce trucking costs significantly. However, the associated capital expenditures of $53 - $63 million for 2024 will require careful monitoring to ensure that the investment yields the anticipated cost savings and does not strain the company's financials.
Ramaco Resources' decision to commit an additional 1.8 million tons for sale into export markets at index-linked pricing reflects a strategic emphasis on global market integration. By increasing its sales and production guidance for 2024, the company is signaling confidence in the continued demand for metallurgical coal, particularly in steel production. The anticipated increase in production capacity, along with the potential to achieve a 5 million ton annual sales run-rate by year-end 2024, indicates aggressive growth targets that could significantly boost market share.
It is important to recognize the role of index-linked pricing in providing a hedge against price fluctuations in the commodities market. By having a substantial portion of sales tied to index pricing, Ramaco is positioned to benefit from upward price trends while mitigating some risks associated with market volatility.
The relocation and expansion of the Maben preparation plant are expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency. The increase in processing capacity, from 0.8 to 1.3 million clean tons per annum, is a notable expansion that could serve as a catalyst for production growth and cost optimization.
The operational details provided regarding Ramaco Resources' Berwind deep mine and the Maben mine complex offer insights into the company's cost management strategies. The reported cash mine costs of less than $90 per ton from the Berwind mine and the improvement to under $100 per ton for the entire complex in Q4 2023 reflect a competitive cost structure within the metallurgical coal sector.
The acquisition of the preparation plant for the Maben Complex, with an initial development capital expenditure of $11 million, is a strategic investment aimed at reducing logistical expenses and enhancing production capabilities. The plant's maximum processing capacity and its potential upgrade, present an opportunity for Ramaco to increase its clean coal output while reducing costs, particularly the haul rate cost of over $40 per clean ton currently incurred due to trucking to the Berwind facility.
Investors and industry stakeholders should consider the impact of the capital expenditures on the company's balance sheet and liquidity. While the investment in the preparation plant could lead to cost savings in the long term, the upfront costs and the time required to become operational could affect short-term financial performance.
Increases Full-Year 2024 Guidance
Announces Purchase of Prep Plant for Maben Mine Complex
FOURTH QUARTER 2023 HIGHLIGHTS
- The Company anticipates that net income will settle in the range of
$28 $30 million $0.65 $0.68 $56 $58 million 50% on both net income and Adjusted EPS. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to increase over25% . Fourth quarter 2023 results are anticipated to be the strongest of any quarter in 2023. See reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. - The Company shipped just under 1 million tons of coal for the second straight quarter. This achieves its previous guidance of achieving a ratable annualized sales run-rate of roughly 4 million tons in 2023. Overall production for 2023 was approximately 3.2 million tons.
- Overall coal inventory levels (clean coal equivalent) declined by ~0.2 million tons, to a year end figure of roughly ~0.3 million tons. In 2024, the Company anticipates further ongoing sale of and reduction in inventory levels.
- The Berwind deep mine produced at over a 600,000 ton per annum run rate (adjusted for vacation weeks in Nov. and Dec.), with cash mine costs of less than
$90 per ton from both sections. Cash costs for the entire Berwind Complex improved to under$100
ANNUAL 2023 HIGHLIGHTS
- The Company expects to report its fully audited results for calendar 2023 in early March 2024. Accordingly, the amounts included in this press release are preliminary and unaudited.
- The Company currently anticipates that for the year ended December 31, 2023, net income will settle in the range of
$80 $82 million $1.85 $1.88 $180 $182 million - The Company expects its cash mine costs to be approximately
$109 $107 - The Company sold a record of approximately 3.5 million tons in 2023 at an average price of
$169 40% versus 2022 levels. - The Company expects receipt from Weir International, Inc. in early March of a semi-annual Technical Report update on the Brook Mine Rare Earth Exploration Target.
2024 COAL SALES AND PRODUCTION GUIDANCE INCREASE
SALES COMMITMENTS IN 2024 ARE NOW 3.8 MILLION TONS OR ALMOST
- Since the Company's last guidance update in early December 2023, Ramaco has committed an additional 1.8 million tons for sale into export markets in 2024 at index-linked pricing.
- As of today, the Company now has 3.8 million tons committed for delivery in 2024 which is an increase of roughly
90% since our last guidance. This consists of 1.5 million tons committed to North American customers at an average realized price of$167 96% of the low end of our original 2024 production guidance of 3.9 million tons. - The Company is now raising both its 2024 sales and production guidance based on this material increase to 2024 committed sales reflective of strong market acceptance of the Company's coals.
- The Company is increasing its 2024 base level sales guidance to between 4.2 – 4.6 million tons, up from 4.1 – 4.6 million tons previously. The Company's customer mix for 2024 would be approximately one-third domestic fixed price and two-thirds export index priced business at the midpoint of sales guidance.
- Depending on continued market conditions, the Company believes that an annual sales run-rate level of approximately 5 million tons may be achievable by year-end 2024. This would include sales of an additional more than 0.5 million tons of both purchased coal and carryover inventory from 2023. This 5-million-ton annualized run-rate would represent a year over year increase in sales of roughly 1.5 million tons or roughly
40% above 2023 levels. - The Company expects 2024 production of between 4.0 – 4.4 million tons, up from a previous guidance of between 3.9 – 4.4 million tons. Depending on market conditions, the Company believes that a higher level of production may be achievable.
RAMACO ANNOUNCES PURCHASE OF PREPARATION PLANT FOR
- The Company has recently completed the purchase of an existing coal preparation plant which will be relocated to the Company's Maben Complex. The purchase price of the plant is
$3 million $8 million Maben . - The purchase of the plant was in line with the Company's goals to decrease the cost of trucking current raw coal production from Maben to the Company's
Berwind preparation facility. It also provides the optionality to have a preparation facility to handle additional future production from a deep mine complex atMaben should the Company elect in the future to pursue such development. - The prep plant has a current maximum processing capacity of 1.85 million raw tons or 0.8 million clean tons per annum. With modest upgrades, the processing capacity can be increased to 1.3 million clean tons per annum.
- We anticipate the
Maben plant will be operational by the fourth quarter of 2024. This will materially reduce both overall trucking and mine cash costs at that mine complex. CurrentMaben production is trucked to Ramaco'sBerwind preparation plant at a haul rate cost of over$40 Maben is currently producing at a run-rate of more than 250,000 tons per annum from our surface and highwall mine which with potential additions in 2024 may increase to approximately 325,000 tons.- The Company expects 2024 capital expenditures of
$53 $63 million
RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP MEASURES
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA is used as a supplemental non-GAAP financial measure by management and external users of our financial statements, such as industry analysts, investors, lenders and rating agencies. We believe Adjusted EBITDA is useful because it allows us to more effectively evaluate our operating performance.
We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income plus net interest expense; equity-based compensation; depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses; income taxes; certain non-operating expenses (charitable contributions), and accretion of asset retirement obligations. Its most comparable GAAP measure is net income. A reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDA is included below. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to serve as a substitute for GAAP measures of performance and may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures presented by other companies.
Q3 | |||||||||||||||
(In thousands) | 2023 | ||||||||||||||
Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA | |||||||||||||||
Net income | $ | 19,462 | |||||||||||||
Depreciation, depletion, and amortization | 14,443 | ||||||||||||||
Interest expense, net | 2,447 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax expense | 5,505 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 41,857 | ||||||||||||||
Stock-based compensation | 3,201 | ||||||||||||||
Other non-operating expenses | — | ||||||||||||||
Accretion of asset retirement obligations | 349 | ||||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 45,407 | |||||||||||||
Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share
Non-GAAP earnings per share (Adjusted EPS) is calculated as the total net income divided by the weighted average Class A shares outstanding. We believe Adjusted EPS provides useful information to investors as it enables investors to compare earnings per share for the Company to historical periods before the dual-class structure under the dividend distribution of the Class B shares. The adjustments made to arrive at these measures are significant in understanding and assessing the Company's financial performance. Adjusted EPS are not measures of financial performance in accordance with GAAP and therefore should not be considered as a substitute to basic and diluted earnings per share under GAAP. The tables below show how we calculate non-GAAP Adjusted EPS:
Q3 | ||||||||||||||
2023 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings per common share: | ||||||||||||||
Basic | ||||||||||||||
Basic EPS (single class structure) | $ | - | ||||||||||||
Class A Basic EPS (dual-class structure) | 0.41 | |||||||||||||
Add: Restricted stock earnings attribution | 0.02 | |||||||||||||
Add: Class B earnings attribution | 0.03 | |||||||||||||
Adjusted EPS - Basic | $ | 0.46 | ||||||||||||
Diluted | ||||||||||||||
Diluted EPS (single class structure) | $ | - | ||||||||||||
Class A Diluted EPS (dual-class structure) | 0.40 | |||||||||||||
Add: Restricted stock earnings attribution | 0.02 | |||||||||||||
Add: Class B earnings attribution | 0.03 | |||||||||||||
Adjusted EPS - Diluted | $ | 0.45 | ||||||||||||
About Ramaco Resources, Inc.
Ramaco Resources, Inc. is an operator and developer of high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements contained in this news release constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words such as "believe," "project," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "intend," "strategy," "future," "opportunity," "plan," "may," "should," "will," "would," "will be," "will continue," "will likely result," and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions and, as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco Resources' expectations or beliefs concerning guidance, future events, anticipated revenue, future demand and production levels, macroeconomic trends, the development of ongoing projects, costs and expectations regarding operating results, and it is possible that the results described in this news release will not be achieved. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco Resources' control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. These factors include, without limitation, risks related to the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic, unexpected delays in our current mine development activities, the ability to successfully ramp up production at the
Point of Contact:
INVESTOR RELATIONS: info@ramacometc.com or 859-244-7455
MEDIA: press@ramacometc.com
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SOURCE Ramaco Resources, Inc.
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