LPL Research Team Releases 2025 Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism
LPL Financial has released its 2025 Outlook titled 'Pragmatic Optimism,' providing a comprehensive analysis of economic and market expectations. The report projects a downshift in economic growth through 2025 with slower consumer spending, while maintaining elevated bond yields between 3.75% and 4.25% for the 10-year Treasury.
The outlook anticipates modest stock market gains supported by a stable economy, solid corporate profits, and a more neutral Federal Reserve. Alternative investments, particularly equity market-neutral, global macro, and managed futures strategies, are highlighted as opportunities. The report also expects strong commodity demand driven by infrastructure projects and data center development, with the U.S. dollar maintaining its strength in 2025.
LPL Financial ha pubblicato il suo Outlook per il 2025 intitolato 'Ottimismo Pragmatico', fornendo un'analisi dettagliata delle aspettative economiche e di mercato. Il rapporto prevede un calo della crescita economica fino al 2025 con una spesa dei consumatori più lenta, mantenendo rendimenti obbligazionari elevati tra il 3,75% e il 4,25% per il Treasury a 10 anni.
Le previsioni anticipano modeste guadagni del mercato azionario sostenuti da un'economia stabile, solidi profitti aziendali e una Federal Reserve più neutra. Gli investimenti alternativi, in particolare le strategie neutrali sul mercato azionario, macro globali e futures gestiti, sono evidenziati come opportunità. Il rapporto prevede inoltre una forte domanda di materie prime guidata da progetti infrastrutturali e dallo sviluppo di centri dati, con il dollaro americano che manterrà la sua forza nel 2025.
LPL Financial ha lanzado su Perspectiva 2025 titulada 'Optimismo Pragmatico', proporcionando un análisis completo de las expectativas económicas y del mercado. El informe proyecta un descenso en el crecimiento económico hasta 2025 con un gasto del consumidor más lento, mientras mantiene rendimientos de bonos elevados entre el 3,75% y el 4,25% para el Tesoro a 10 años.
La perspectiva anticipa modestas ganancias en el mercado de valores respaldadas por una economía estable, sólidos beneficios corporativos y una Reserva Federal más neutral. Las inversiones alternativas, particularmente las estrategias neutrales en el mercado de acciones, macro global y futuros gestionados, se destacan como oportunidades. El informe también espera una fuerte demanda de commodities impulsada por proyectos de infraestructura y desarrollo de centros de datos, con el dólar estadounidense manteniendo su fortaleza en 2025.
LPL 금융이 '실용적 낙관주의'라는 제목의 2025년 전망을 발표했습니다. 이 보고서는 경제 및 시장 기대에 대한 포괄적인 분석을 제공하고 있습니다. 이 보고서는 2025년까지 경제 성장 둔화가 있을 것으로 예측하며, 소비자 지출이 둔화되는 반면, 10년 만기 국채의 수익률이 3.75%에서 4.25% 사이에서 유지될 것이라고 전망합니다.
이 전망은 안정적인 경제, 견고한 기업 이익 및 보다 중립적인 연방준비제도(Fed)에 힘입어 주식 시장의 완만한 상승을 기대하고 있습니다. 특히 주식 시장 중립, 글로벌 거시경제 및 관리된 선물 전략과 같은 대체 투자가 기회로 강조됩니다. 이 보고서는 또한 인프라 프로젝트 및 데이터 센터 개발로 인한 강력한 원자재 수요를 예상하며, 2025년에는 미국 달러가 그 힘을 유지할 것으로 보고 있습니다.
LPL Financial a publié son Outlook pour 2025 intitulé 'Optimisme Pragmatiste', offrant une analyse complète des attentes économiques et de marché. Le rapport prévoit un ralentissement de la croissance économique jusqu'en 2025, avec des dépenses de consommation plus lentes, tout en maintenant des rendements obligataires élevés entre 3,75 % et 4,25 % pour les obligations d'État à 10 ans.
Les perspectives anticipent des gains modestes sur le marché boursier, soutenus par une économie stable, de solides bénéfices d'entreprise et une Réserve fédérale plus neutre. Les investissements alternatifs, en particulier les stratégies neutres sur le marché des actions, macroéconomiques mondiales et les contrats à terme gérés, sont mis en avant comme des opportunités. Le rapport prévoit également une forte demande de matières premières, stimulée par des projets d'infrastructure et le développement de centres de données, avec un dollar américain maintenant sa force en 2025.
LPL Financial hat seinen Ausblick für 2025 mit dem Titel 'Pragmatische Optimismus' veröffentlicht und bietet eine umfassende Analyse der wirtschaftlichen und marktbezogenen Erwartungen. Der Bericht prognostiziert eine Verlangsamung des Wirtschaftswachstums bis 2025 mit schwächerem Verbraucherausgaben, während die Anleiherenditen zwischen 3,75% und 4,25% für 10-jährige Staatsanleihen hoch bleiben.
Die Perspektiven erwarten mäßige Kursgewinne an den Aktienmärkten, gefördert durch eine stabile Wirtschaft, solide Unternehmensgewinne und eine neutralere Federal Reserve. Alternative Investments, insbesondere aktienmarkenneutrale, globale makroökonomische sowie verwaltete Futures-Strategien, werden als Chancen hervorgehoben. Der Bericht erwartet auch eine starke Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen, die durch Infrastrukturprojekte und die Entwicklung von Rechenzentren angekurbelt wird, wobei der US-Dollar 2025 seine Stärke beibehalten sollte.
- Economy remains stronger than expected based on revised income and savings data
- Stable economic conditions expected with solid corporate profits
- Bond yields projected to maintain stability between 3.75-4.25%
- Strong commodity demand anticipated from infrastructure and data center projects
- U.S. dollar expected to maintain strength in 2025
- Economic growth expected to downshift throughout 2025
- Consumer spending projected to slow from current levels
- 2025 stock market gains likely to be more modest compared to 2024
- potential for positive market surprises due to current pricing
This annual report offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic and market environment, highlighting potential implications for investors and their portfolios
SAN DIEGO, Dec. 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LPL Financial LLC today released its 2025 Outlook, “Pragmatic Optimism.” Setting the tone for the new year, this report offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic and market environment, highlighting potential implications for investors and their portfolios.
The 2025 Outlook embraces a pragmatic optimism rooted in data-driven insights and a clear-eyed view of the challenges ahead. As 2025 approaches, revised key income and savings data reveal an economy that remains stronger than expected.
“There were some brief economic growth scares in 2024,” said Marc Zabicki, Chief Investment Officer at LPL, “but by and large the broader economy continued to defy expectations and surprised once again with a shift to the upside as stocks resume their strong performance.”
Key Highlights from the 2025 Outlook:
- Steady but Complex Economic Progress: The economy will likely downshift throughout 2025 as consumer spending slows from recent breakneck speeds. On the other hand, the Trump administration could jumpstart the economy with the Federal Reserve watching for signs of inflation increasing, which could lead to a slower pace for interest rate cuts.
- Continued Higher Bond Yields: We expect bond yields to remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield likely to remain between
3.75% and4.25% in 2025. Over the next 12 months, we see roughly equal upside and downside risks to yields as markets grapple with the true impacts of budget deficits. - A Measured Approach to Equities: Modest stock market gains are expected in 2025, supported by a stable economy, solid corporate profits, and a more neutral Federal Reserve, as well as some potential deregulation tailwinds. With stocks pricing in a lot of good news, positive surprises may be tougher to come by, so a repeat of the strong market performance in 2024 is unlikely.
- Opportunities in Alternative Investments: Lower interest rates and potential policy shifts will impact markets differently, creating both opportunities and risks. Equity market-neutral, global macro and managed futures strategies are well-positioned to capitalize on increased volatility. Private credit and infrastructure remain attractive, but with some moderation in expectations.
- Commodities and Currencies: Demand for a wide range of commodities will drive new infrastructure projects, and the build-out of data centers is poised to require an abundance of commodities. The U.S. dollar had a very strong 2024 and is expected to be well supported in 2025, thanks to limited downside risk and gradual interest-rate cuts.
“As we look ahead to 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic because no market environment is ever permanent, and we recognize constructive long-term technology trends are in place,” Zabicki added. “While growth asset returns are not expected to be as robust as 2024, 2025’s investment environment should prove favorable for investors.”
Important Disclosures
Please see the LPL Financial Research 2025 Outlook for additional description and disclosure.
The opinions, statements and forecasts presented herein are general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Any forward-looking statements including the economic forecasts may not develop as predicted and are subject to change based on future market and other conditions.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
About LPL Financial
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: LPLA) is among the fastest growing wealth management firms in the U.S. As a leader in the financial advisor-mediated marketplace, LPL supports more than 28,000 financial advisors and the wealth management practices of approximately 1,200 financial institutions, servicing and custodying approximately
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