Kinder Morgan Announces 2025 Financial Expectations

Rhea-AI Summary

Kinder Morgan (KMI) has announced its 2025 financial projections, forecasting significant growth across key metrics. The company expects $1.27 Adjusted EPS (up 8% from 2024) and $8.3 billion Adjusted EBITDA (up 4% from 2024). KMI plans to invest $2.3 billion in discretionary capital expenditures and projects an annualized dividend of $1.17 per share, marking the 8th consecutive year of dividend increases.

Growth is expected primarily from Natural Gas Pipelines and Energy Transition Ventures segments. The company's end-of-year 2025 Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio is forecast at 3.8 times, positioning within their target range of 3.5x-4.5x. These projections assume WTI crude oil at $68/barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at $3.00/MMBtu.

Positive

• Adjusted EPS growth of 8% to $1.27 in 2025
• Adjusted EBITDA increase of 4% to $8.3 billion
• 8th consecutive year of dividend increases
• Strong leverage position at 3.8x, below middle of target range
• $2.3 billion investment in growth projects funded by internal cash flow

Negative

• Base business reported as relatively flat, with growth primarily dependent on expansion projects
• Commodity price exposure: $7M EBITDA impact per $1 change in WTI crude oil price
• Commodity price exposure: $6M EBITDA impact per $0.10 change in natural gas price

Insights

Financial Analyst

Kinder Morgan's 2025 financial outlook presents a compelling growth narrative with 8% projected growth in Adjusted EPS to $1.27 and 4% growth in Adjusted EBITDA to $8.3 billion. The company's strategic focus on natural gas infrastructure and energy transition ventures demonstrates adaptability to evolving market demands. The projected leverage ratio of 3.8x sits comfortably within their target range, providing flexibility for opportunistic investments. The $2.3 billion capital expenditure plan, funded through internal cash flows, reflects strong operational efficiency. The $1.17 dividend per share marks their 8th consecutive year of dividend growth, highlighting commitment to shareholder returns. Their commodity price exposure, with only $7 million EBITDA impact per $1 change in WTI, underscores the stability of their fee-based business model.

Energy Infrastructure Analyst

The expansion focus in Natural Gas Pipelines and Energy Transition Ventures positions KMI strategically in high-growth sectors. Their extensive infrastructure network of 79,000 miles of pipelines and 702 billion cubic feet of gas storage capacity provides a robust foundation for capitalizing on strong natural gas market fundamentals. The renewable natural gas generation capacity of 6.1 Bcf annually, with additional 0.8 Bcf in development, shows meaningful progress in energy transition initiatives. The relatively flat base business complemented by targeted expansion projects suggests a balanced approach to growth. Their diversified asset portfolio across natural gas, refined products and renewables provides multiple revenue streams while maintaining operational stability.

$1.27 Adjusted EPS (up 8% from 2024); $8.3 billion Adjusted EBITDA; 3.8x leverage at year-end 2025; and $1.17 dividend per share

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) today announced its preliminary 2025 financial projections. “We expect 4% growth from 2024 in Adjusted EBITDA and 8% growth in Adjusted EPS due to growth projects in all our business segments, but most prominently in Natural Gas Pipelines and Energy Transition Ventures,” said Kim Dang, KMI Chief Executive Officer.

“We are projecting an annualized dividend of $1.17 in 2025, constituting the 8^th year in a row in which we have increased our dividend. Our end-of-year 2025 Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio is forecast to be 3.8 times, which is in the lower part of our 3.5x-4.5x leverage target range and provides good capacity for additional opportunistic investment,” Dang concluded.

“We anticipate generating Adjusted EPS of $1.27, up 8% compared to our year-end 2024 forecast of $1.17 per share, and Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 billion, up 4% compared to the 2024 forecast of $8 billion,” said KMI President Tom Martin.

“We expect to continue benefiting from strong natural gas market fundamentals driving growth on our existing natural gas transportation and storage assets, as well as creating expansion opportunities. Overall, our base business is relatively flat with expansion projects in our Natural Gas Pipelines segment and Energy Transition Ventures group as the primary growth drivers,” Martin concluded.

Below is a summary of KMI’s expectations for 2025:

• Generate $1.27 of Adjusted EPS, up 8% versus our current 2024 forecast of $1.17.
• Generate $8.3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA, up 4% from the 2024 forecast of $8 billion.
• Invest $2.3 billion in discretionary capital expenditures, including expansion projects and contributions to joint ventures, funded out of internally generated cash flow.
• Return additional value to shareholders for 2025 through an anticipated declared $1.17 per share dividend (annualized).
• End 2025 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8 times.

This press release includes budgeted Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA and Net Debt, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. For descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below. Historically, KMI has disclosed budgeted distributable cash flow, or DCF, in the aggregate and per share. KMI has excluded budgeted DCF from this press release due to declining investor interest in DCF as a primary performance measure. KMI expects to continue to disclose DCF in 2025 as supplemental information in some investor materials for comparability purposes.

KMI’s expectations assume average annual prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas of $68 per barrel and $3.00 per MMBtu, respectively, consistent with forward pricing during the budget process. The vast majority of cash generated by KMI is fee-based and therefore is not directly exposed to commodity prices. For 2025, the company estimates that every $1 per barrel change in the average WTI crude oil price impacts Adjusted EBITDA by approximately $7 million, and each $0.10 per MMBtu change in the price of natural gas impacts Adjusted EBITDA by approximately $6 million.

The KMI board of directors has preliminarily reviewed the 2025 budget and will take formal action on it at the January board meeting, expected to coincide with the issuance of fourth quarter 2024 earnings on January 22, 2025. The 2025 budget will be the standard by which KMI measures its performance next year and will be a factor in determining employee compensation. Kinder Morgan has posted a presentation that includes a brief overview of the 2025 budget to the Investor Relations website and expects to publish a detailed 2025 budget and outlook presentation on the company’s website in early February.

About Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. Access to reliable, affordable energy is a critical component for improving lives around the world. We are committed to providing energy transportation and storage services in a safe, efficient, and environmentally responsible manner for the benefit of the people, communities and businesses we serve. We own an interest in or operate approximately 79,000 miles of pipelines, 139 terminals, 702 billion cubic feet of working natural gas storage capacity and have renewable natural gas generation capacity of approximately 6.1 Bcf per year with an additional 0.8 Bcf in development. Our pipelines transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2, renewable fuels and other products, and our terminals store and handle various commodities including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, chemicals, metals, petroleum coke, and ethanol and other renewable fuels and feedstocks. Learn more about our work advancing energy solutions on the lower carbon initiatives page at www.kindermorgan.com.

Important Information Relating to Forward-Looking Statements

This news release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Generally, the words “expects,” “believes,” anticipates,” “plans,” “will,” “shall,” “estimates,” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature. Forward-looking statements in this news release include express or implied statements pertaining to KMI’s expectations for 2024 and 2025, including expected Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA, Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA, anticipated dividends, discretionary capital expenditures, KMI’s financing and capital allocation strategy, and the financial performance of growth projects. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and are based on the beliefs and assumptions of management, based on information currently available to them. Although KMI believes that these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance as to when or if any such forward-looking statements will materialize nor their ultimate impact on our operations or financial condition. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward-looking statements include: the timing and extent of changes in the supply of and demand for the products we transport and handle; commodity prices; regulatory and policy changes; delays or cost overruns affecting expansion projects; and the other risks and uncertainties described in KMI’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2023 (under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” and elsewhere) and its subsequent reports, which are available through the SEC’s EDGAR system at www.sec.gov and on our website at ir.kindermorgan.com. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made, and except to the extent required by law, KMI undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement because of new information, future events or other factors. Because of these risks and uncertainties, readers should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Our non-GAAP financial measures described further below should not be considered alternatives to GAAP net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. or other GAAP measures and have important limitations as analytical tools. Our computations of these non-GAAP financial measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. You should not consider these non-GAAP financial measures in isolation or as substitutes for an analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Management compensates for the limitations of our consolidated non-GAAP financial measures by reviewing our comparable GAAP measures identified in the descriptions of consolidated non-GAAP measures below, understanding the differences between the measures and taking this information into account in its analysis and its decision-making processes.

Certain Items, as adjustments used to calculate our non-GAAP financial measures, are items that are required by GAAP to be reflected in net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc., but typically either (1) do not have a cash impact (for example, unsettled commodity hedges and asset impairments), or (2) by their nature are separately identifiable from our normal business operations and in most cases are likely to occur only sporadically (for example, certain legal settlements, enactment of new tax legislation and casualty losses) We also include adjustments related to joint ventures (see “Amounts from Joint Ventures” below).

Adjusted EPS is calculated as Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock divided by our weighted average shares outstanding. Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock is calculated by adjusting Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc., the most comparable GAAP measure, for Certain Items, and further for net income allocated to participating securities and adjusted net income in excess of distributions for participating securities. We believe Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock allows for calculation of adjusted earnings per share (Adjusted EPS) on the most comparable basis with earnings per share, the most comparable GAAP measure to Adjusted EPS. Adjusted EPS applies the same two-class method used in arriving at basic earnings per share. Adjusted EPS is used by us, investors and other external users of our financial statements as a per-share supplemental measure that provides decision-useful information regarding our period-over-period performance and ability to generate earnings that are core to our ongoing operations.

Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by adjusting net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. for Certain Items and further for DD&A, income tax expense and interest. We also include amounts from joint ventures for income taxes and DD&A (see “Amounts associated with Joint Ventures” below). Adjusted EBITDA (on a rolling 12-months basis) is used by management, investors and other external users, in conjunction with our Net Debt (as described further below), to evaluate our leverage. Management and external users also use Adjusted EBITDA as an important metric to compare the valuations of companies across our industry. Our ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA is used as a supplemental performance target for purposes of our annual incentive compensation program. We believe the GAAP measure most directly comparable to Adjusted EBITDA is net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Net Debt is calculated by subtracting from debt (1) cash and cash equivalents, (2) debt fair value adjustments, and (3) the foreign exchange impact on Euro-denominated bonds for which we have entered into currency swaps. Net Debt, on its own and in conjunction with our Adjusted EBITDA (on a rolling 12-months basis) as part of a ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA, is a non-GAAP financial measure that is used by management, investors, and other external users of our financial information to evaluate our leverage. Our ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA is also used as a supplemental performance target for purposes of our annual incentive compensation program. We believe the most comparable measure to Net Debt is total debt. 2025 budgeted Net Debt is calculated as budgeted total debt of $31.4 billion, less budgeted cash and cash equivalents of less than $0.1 billion; 2025 budgeted Net Debt does not include budgeted debt fair value adjustments or the budgeted foreign exchange impact on our Euro denominated debt, as these amounts are impractical to predict and are expected to be immaterial.

Amounts associated with Joint Ventures - Certain Items and Adjusted EBITDA reflect amounts from unconsolidated joint ventures (JVs) and consolidated JVs utilizing the same recognition and measurement methods used to record “Earnings from equity investments” and “Noncontrolling interests,” respectively. The calculation of Adjusted EBITDA related to our unconsolidated and consolidated JVs include the same items (DD&A, including amortization of basis differences related to our JVs, and income tax expense) with respect to the JVs as those included in the calculation of Adjusted EBITDA for our wholly owned consolidated subsidiaries; further, we remove the portion of these adjustments attributable to non-controlling interests. Although these amounts related to our unconsolidated JVs are included in the calculation of Adjusted EBITDA, such inclusion should not be understood to imply that we have control over the operations and resulting revenues, expenses, or cash flows of such unconsolidated JVs.

Table 1
Kinder Morgan, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Reconciliation of Projected Net Income Attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. to Projected Adjusted EBITDA
(In billions, unaudited)
	2024 Forecast				2025 Budget
Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP)	$	2.7			$	2.8
Total Certain Items (1)		(0.1	)			—
DD&A		2.4				2.4
Income tax expense (2)		0.8				0.8
Interest, net (2)		1.8				1.8
Amounts associated with joint ventures
Unconsolidated JV DD&A (3)		0.4				0.5
Remove consolidated JV partners' DD&A		(0.1	)			(0.1	)
Unconsolidated JV income tax expense (4)		0.1				0.1
Adjusted EBITDA	$	8.0			$	8.3

Table 2
Kinder Morgan, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Reconciliation of Projected Net Income Attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. to Projected Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock
(In billions, unaudited)
	2024 Forecast				2025 Budget
Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP)	$	2.7			$	2.8
Total Certain Items (1)		(0.1	)			—
Net income allocated to participating securities (1)(5)		—				—
Other (1)(6)		—				—
Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock (7)	$	2.6			$	2.8

Notes
(1)	Aggregate adjustments are currently estimated to be less than $100 million.
(2)	Amounts are adjusted for Certain Items.
(3)	Includes amortization of basis differences related to our JVs.
(4)	Includes the tax provision on Certain Items recognized by the investees that are taxable entities associated with our Citrus, NGPL and Products (SE) Pipe Line equity investments.
(5)	Net income allocated to common stock and participating securities is based on the amount of dividends paid in the current period plus an allocation of the undistributed earnings or excess distributions over earnings to the extent that each security participates in earnings or excess distributions over earnings, as applicable.
(6)	Adjusted net income in excess of distributions for participating securities.
(7)	Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Common Stock is used to calculate Adjusted EPS.

 

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241209656170/en/

Dave Conover

Media Relations

newsroom@kindermorgan.com

Investor Relations

(800) 348-7320

km_ir@kindermorgan.com

www.kindermorgan.com

Source: Kinder Morgan, Inc.

FAQ

What is Kinder Morgan's (KMI) projected Adjusted EPS for 2025?

Kinder Morgan projects an Adjusted EPS of $1.27 for 2025, representing an 8% increase from their 2024 forecast of $1.17 per share.

What is KMI's expected dividend per share for 2025?

KMI expects to pay an annualized dividend of $1.17 per share in 2025, continuing their streak of dividend increases.

What is Kinder Morgan's projected Adjusted EBITDA for 2025?

Kinder Morgan projects an Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 billion for 2025, up 4% from their 2024 forecast of $8 billion.

What is KMI's expected Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio for 2025?

KMI expects to end 2025 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8 times, within their target range of 3.5x-4.5x.