Kelt Provides 2025 Financial and Operating Guidance and Sets Its 2025 Capital Expenditure Budget at $328 Million
Kelt Exploration has announced its 2025 financial and operating guidance with a capital expenditure budget of $328.0 million. The company forecasts $345.0 million in adjusted funds from operations, representing a 56% increase from 2024. Production is expected to average between 44,000 and 48,000 BOE per day, up 40% from 2024, with a product mix of 37% oil/NGLs and 63% gas.
The capital budget allocation includes $209.0 million (64%) for drilling 30.5 net wells and completing 33.5 net wells, $97.0 million (30%) for equipment and infrastructure, and $22.0 million (6%) for land purchases and seismic operations. The company projects to end 2025 with net debt of $100.0 million, representing a healthy 0.3x net debt to AFFO ratio.
Kelt Exploration ha annunciato la sua guida finanziaria e operativa per il 2025 con un budget di spesa in conto capitale di 328,0 milioni di dollari. L'azienda prevede 345,0 milioni di dollari in fondi rettificati dalle operazioni, che rappresentano un aumento del 56% rispetto al 2024. Si prevede che la produzione mediamente sarà compresa tra 44.000 e 48.000 BOE al giorno, in aumento del 40% rispetto al 2024, con un mix di prodotto del 37% di petrolio/NGL e il 63% di gas.
L'allocazione del budget di capitale include 209,0 milioni di dollari (64%) per la perforazione di 30,5 pozzi netti e il completamento di 33,5 pozzi netti, 97,0 milioni di dollari (30%) per attrezzature e infrastrutture, e 22,0 milioni di dollari (6%) per acquisti di terreni e operazioni sismiche. L'azienda prevede di chiudere il 2025 con un debito netto di 100,0 milioni di dollari, che rappresenta un sano rapporto di 0,3x tra debito netto e AFFO.
Kelt Exploration ha anunciado su guía financiera y operativa para 2025 con un presupuesto de gastos de capital de 328,0 millones de dólares. La compañía prevé 345,0 millones de dólares en fondos ajustados de operaciones, lo que representa un aumento del 56% respecto a 2024. Se espera que la producción promedio esté entre 44,000 y 48,000 BOE por día, un incremento del 40% en comparación con 2024, con una mezcla de productos del 37% de petróleo/NGL y el 63% de gas.
La asignación del presupuesto de capital incluye 209,0 millones de dólares (64%) para perforar 30,5 pozos netos y completar 33,5 pozos netos, 97,0 millones de dólares (30%) para equipos e infraestructura, y 22,0 millones de dólares (6%) para compras de terrenos y operaciones sísmicas. La compañía proyecta terminar 2025 con una deuda neta de 100,0 millones de dólares, lo que representa una saludable relación de deuda neta a AFFO de 0,3x.
Kelt Exploration는 3억 2천 8백만 달러의 자본 지출 예산으로 2025년 재무 및 운영 가이드를 발표했습니다. 이 회사는 2024년 대비 56% 증가한 3억 4천 5백만 달러의 조정 운영 자금을 예측하고 있습니다. 생산량은 하루 44,000에서 48,000 BOE 사이가 될 것으로 예상되며, 이는 2024년 대비 40% 증가하는 것이며, 제품 믹스는 37%의 석유/NGL과 63%의 가스를 포함합니다.
자본 예산 배분은 30.5개의 순 시추 및 33.5개의 순 시추 완료를 위한 2억 9천만 달러(64%), 장비 및 인프라를 위한 9천7백만 달러(30%), 토지 구매 및 지진 작업을 위한 2천2백만 달러(6%)를 포함합니다. 회사는 2025년 말에 1억 달러의 순 부채로 종료할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 AFFO 대비 순 부채 비율이 0.3배로 건전함을 나타냅니다.
Kelt Exploration a annoncé ses prévisions financières et opérationnelles pour 2025 avec un budget d'investissement de 328,0 millions de dollars. La société prévoit 345,0 millions de dollars en fonds ajustés d'exploitation, représentant une augmentation de 56% par rapport à 2024. La production devrait atteindre en moyenne entre 44 000 et 48 000 BOE par jour, soit une augmentation de 40% par rapport à 2024, avec un mélange de produits de 37% de pétrole/NGL et 63% de gaz.
L'allocation du budget d'investissement comprend 209,0 millions de dollars (64%) pour forer 30,5 puits nets et compléter 33,5 puits nets, 97,0 millions de dollars (30%) pour l'équipement et l'infrastructure, et 22,0 millions de dollars (6%) pour les acquisitions de terrains et les opérations sismiques. L'entreprise prévoit de terminer 2025 avec une dette nette de 100,0 millions de dollars, représentant un rapport sain de 0,3x entre la dette nette et l'AFFO.
Kelt Exploration hat seine Finanz- und Betriebsprognosen für 2025 mit einem Investitionsbudget von 328,0 Millionen Dollar bekannt gegeben. Das Unternehmen prognostiziert 345,0 Millionen Dollar an bereinigten Betriebsmitteln, was einem Anstieg von 56 % im Vergleich zu 2024 entspricht. Die Produktion wird voraussichtlich im Durchschnitt zwischen 44.000 und 48.000 BOE pro Tag liegen, was einen Anstieg von 40 % im Vergleich zu 2024 darstellt, mit einer Produktmischung von 37 % Öl/NGL und 63 % Gas.
Die Kapitalbudgetzuweisung umfasst 209,0 Millionen Dollar (64 %) für die Bohrung von 30,5 Netto-Bohrungen und den Abschluss von 33,5 Netto-Bohrungen, 97,0 Millionen Dollar (30 %) für Ausrüstungen und Infrastruktur sowie 22,0 Millionen Dollar (6 %) für Grundstücksankäufe und seismische Operationen. Das Unternehmen plant, 2025 mit einer Nettoverschuldung von 100,0 Millionen Dollar abzuschließen, was einem gesunden Verhältnis von 0,3x Nettoverschuldung zu AFFO entspricht.
- 40% production increase forecast for 2025 (44,000-48,000 BOE/day)
- 56% increase in adjusted funds from operations to $345.0 million
- Improved net debt to AFFO ratio projected at 0.3x by end of 2025
- Significant production ramp-up expected in Q2 2025 with CSV Albright Gas Plant startup
- Projected 10% decrease in WTI oil price assumptions for 2025
- Net debt expected to be $100.0 million by end of 2025
Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - January 6, 2025) - Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSX: KEL) ("Kelt" or the "Company") is providing financial and operating guidance for 2025. The Company expects to incur
The following table outlines Kelt's forecasted average commodity price assumptions for 2025 with actual 2023 and forecasted 2024 commodity prices shown for comparative purposes:
| Commodity Index | 2023 Actual | 2024 Forecast | 2025 Budget | Change 2025/2024 |
| WTI Oil (USD/bbl) | 77.63 | 76.54 | 69.00 | ( |
| MSW Oil (CAD/bbl) | 100.40 | 98.63 | 91.55 | ( |
| NYMEX Henry Hub Gas (USD/MMBtu) | 2.53 | 2.27 | 3.25 | |
| DAWN Gas (USD/MMBtu) | 2.34 | 2.00 | 3.20 | |
| AECO NIT Gas (CAD/GJ) | 2.52 | 1.40 | 2.27 | |
| STATION 2 Gas (CAD/GJ) | 2.14 | 1.16 | 2.14 | |
| Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) | 0.7410 | 0.7303 | 0.7100 | ( |
| Exchange Rate (CAD/USD) | 1.3495 | 1.3693 | 1.4085 |
Financial and operating highlights forecasted for 2025 compared to 2024 forecasts are outlined in the table below:
| Financial and Operating Highlights ($MM, unless otherwise specified) | 2024 Forecast | 2025 Budget | Change |
| Production | |||
| Oil & NGLs (bbls/d) | 11,900 - 12,600 | 16,500 - 18,000 | |
| Gas (MMcf/d) | 120,600 - 125,400 | 165,000 - 180,000 | |
| Combined (BOE/d) | 32,000 - 33,500 | 44,000 - 48,000 | |
| P&NG Sales [1] | 474.0 | 671.2 | |
| Adjusted Funds from Operations [1] | 221.5 | 345.0 | |
| AFFO per share, diluted ($/share) [1] | 1.11 | 1.70 | |
| Capital Expenditures, net of A&D [1] | 325.0 | 328.0 | |
| Net Debt, at year-end [1] | 117.0 | 100.0 | ( |
| Net Debt / AFFO ratio [1] | 0.5 x | 0.3 x | |
| Notes: [1] Refer to advisories regarding "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures". [2] Percent change for production is calculated using the mid-point of each production range. | |||
Kelt's Board of Directors has approved a capital expenditure program of
Production in 2025 is expected to average between 44,000 and 48,000 BOE per day, up
Adjusted funds from operations ("AFFO") for 2025 is forecasted to be
In its Oak/Flatrock Division, Kelt expects to drill three development wells and one exploratory/delineation well, in the second half of 2025.
In its Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River Division, Kelt expects to drill four Montney wells and eight (6.0 net) Charlie Lake wells during 2025.
In its Wembley/Pipestone Division, Kelt expects to be the most active during 2025. The Company expects to drill 15 Montney wells and two (1.2 net) Charlie Lake wells during the year. In addition, the Company will also complete three wells drilled off a pad in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Kelt continues to maintain financial flexibility with an anticipated net debt to AFFO ratio of 0.3 times forecasted at December 31, 2025. In the event that commodity prices are substantially higher than the Company's forecasts, Kelt does have the ability to increase its capital expenditure program in the second half of 2025. Commodity price sensitivities to estimated AFFO for 2025 are as follows:
- A
10% change in Kelt's forecasted average net realized price for oil sales of$87.33 /bbl, would affect AFFO by$27.6 million . - A
10% change in Kelt's forecasted average net realized price for NGL sales of$47.64 /bbl, would affect AFFO by$7.4 million ; and - A
10% change in Kelt's forecasted average net realized price for gas sales of$3.00 /Mcf, would affect AFFO by$18.3 million .
Changes in forecasted commodity prices and variances in production estimates can have a significant impact on estimated funds from operations and profit. Please refer to the advisories regarding forward-looking statements and to the cautionary statement below.
The information set out herein is "financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers with disclosure regarding Kelt's reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the calendar years 2024 and 2025. Readers are cautioned that this financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.
For further information, please contact:
Kelt Exploration Ltd., Suite 300, 311 - 6th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3H2
David J. Wilson, President and Chief Executive Officer (403) 201-5340, or
Sadiq H. Lalani, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (403) 215-5310.
Or visit our website at www.keltexploration.com.
Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of and of the words "will", "expects", "believe", "plans", potential", "forecasts" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. In particular, this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to the following: Kelt's expected price realizations and future commodity prices; its expected oil and NGLs weighting; the cost and timing of future capital expenditures and expected results; the expected timing of wells bring brought on-production; the expected timing of production additions from capital expenditures; the ability to show significant production growth; the expected drill and complete costs; the expected timing and processing capacity from the start-up of a third party facility; the expected timing of when the Company shoots its 3-D seismic program; the production volumes at Wembley/Pipestone being brought on-stream in the second quarter of 2025; the estimated new production ready to be brought on-stream; and the Company's expected future financial position and operating results.
Certain information with respect to Kelt contained herein, including management's assessment of future plans and operations, contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Kelt's control, including the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity prices, currency exchange rate fluctuations, imprecision of reserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other explorers, stock market volatility and ability to access sufficient capital. As a result, Kelt's actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur.
In addition, the reader is cautioned that historical results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date hereof and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise unless expressly required by applicable securities laws.
Certain information set out herein may be considered as "financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers with disclosure regarding Kelt's reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the periods indicated. Readers are cautioned that the financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Non-GAAP and Other Key Financial Measures
This press release contains certain non-GAAP financial measures and other specified financial measures, as described below, which do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and do not have standardized meanings under the applicable securities legislation. As these non-GAAP, and other specified financial measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry, the Company believes that their inclusion is useful to investors. The reader is cautioned that these amounts may not be directly comparable to measures for other companies where similar terminology is used.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Net realized price
Net realized price is a non-GAAP measure and is calculated by dividing the Company's P&NG sales after cost of purchases by the Company's production and reflects Kelt's realized selling prices plus the net benefit of oil blending and third-party natural gas sales. In addition to using its own production, the Company may purchase butane and crude oil from third parties for use in its blending operations, with the objective of selling the blended oil product at a premium. Marketing revenue from the sale of third-party volumes is included in P&NG sales as reported in the Consolidated Statement of Net Income and Comprehensive Income in accordance with GAAP. Given the Company's per unit operating statistics disclosed throughout this press release are calculated based on Kelt's production volumes, and excludes the sale of third-party marketing volumes, management believes that disclosing its net realized prices based on P&NG sales after cost of purchases is more appropriate and useful, because the cost of third-party volumes purchased to generate the incremental marketing revenue has been deducted.
Combined net realized prices referenced throughout this press release are before derivative financial instruments, except as otherwise indicated as being after derivative financial instruments.
Capital expenditures
"Capital expenditures, before A&D" and "Capital expenditures, net of A&D" are measures the Company uses to monitor its investment in exploration and evaluation, investment in property plant and equipment, and net investment in acquisition and disposition activities.
Capital Management Measures:
Funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations
Management considers funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations as a key capital management measure as it demonstrates the Company's ability to meet its financial obligations and cash flow available to fund its capital program. Funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations are not standardized measures and therefore may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures by other entities.
Net debt (surplus) and net debt (surplus) to adjusted funds from operations ratio
Management considers net debt (surplus) and a net debt (surplus) to adjusted funds from operations ratio as key capital management measures to assess the Company's liquidity at a point in time and to monitor its capital structure and short-term financing requirements. The "net debt (surplus) to adjusted funds from operations ratio" is also indicative of the "net debt to cash flow ratio" calculation used to determine the applicable margin for a quarter under the Company's Credit Facility agreement (though the calculation may not always be a precise match, it is representative).
"Net debt (surplus)" is equal to bank debt, accounts payable and accrued liabilities, net of cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivables and accrued sales and prepaid expenses and deposits. The Company believes that using a "Net debt (surplus)" non-GAAP measure, which excludes non-cash derivative financial instruments, non-cash lease liabilities, and non-cash decommissioning obligations, provides investors with more useful information to understand the Company's cash liquidity risk.
Supplementary Financial Measures
Adjusted funds from operations per share (basic and diluted), and net income and comprehensive income per share (basic and diluted) is calculated by dividing the amounts by the basic weighted average common shares outstanding.
Measurements
All dollar amounts are referenced in thousands of Canadian dollars, except when noted otherwise. This press release contains various references to the abbreviation BOE which means barrels of oil equivalent. Where amounts are expressed on a BOE basis, natural gas volumes have been converted to oil equivalence at six thousand cubic feet per barrel and sulphur volumes have been converted to oil equivalence at 0.6 long tons per barrel. The term BOE may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet per barrel is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead and is significantly different than the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil and natural gas. This conversion factor is an industry accepted norm and is not based on either energy content or current prices. Such abbreviation may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. References to "oil" in this press release include crude oil and field condensate. References to "natural gas liquids" or "NGLs" include pentane, butane, propane, and ethane. References to "liquids" include field condensate and NGLs. References to "gas" in this discussion include natural gas and sulphur.
Abbreviations
| A&D | Acquisitions and Dispositions |
| P&NG | Petroleum and Natural Gas |
| MD&A | Management's Discussion and Analysis |
| TSX | the Toronto Stock Exchange |
| KEL | trading symbol for Kelt Exploration Ltd. on the TSX |
| GAAP | Generally Accepted Accounting Principles |
| SEDAR+ | the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval |
| CAD | Canadian dollars |
| USD | United States dollars |
| bbls | barrels |
| bbls/d | barrels per day |
| Mcf | thousand cubic feet |
| Mcf/d | thousand cubic feet per day |
| MMcf | million cubic feet |
| MMcf/d | million cubic feet per day |
| Oil | includes crude oil and field condensate combined |
| BOE | barrel of oil equivalent |
| BOE/d | barrel of oil equivalent per day |
| NGLs | natural gas liquids |
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/236027
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