ICE Mortgage Monitor: Positive Signs in Housing, Mortgage Markets Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season
- Affordability has improved along with rates in recent months, with the share of income required to purchase the median home falling nearly 5 percentage points from October’s 28-year high
- The national inventory deficit also improved for the 7th consecutive month which, along with improved affordability, points to a better housing market environment in coming months
- The ICE Home Price Index for December reported an annual growth rate of +
- That acceleration, however, is a residual effect of last spring and summer’s strong run of growth, with more recent data suggesting that growth rate will begin to cool in coming months
- Lower interest rates have also begun to increase refinance incentive, albeit slowly, with more potential on the horizon, particularly among the 4.3M mortgages originated in 2023
- Of the 2023 vintage,
- Mortgage holders gained
- The average mortgage holder now has
“Prospective homebuyers may feel an all-too-familiar sense of dread upon hearing that prices – already at record highs – rose another
Research in this month’s report shows today’s market remains interest-rate-driven. The recent rebound in affordability has increased purchase mortgage demand, comparable to levels seen last summer when interest rates were in a similar range. Purchase demand continues to trend very consistently with 30-year-rate changes and their downstream impact on affordability. As Walden explains, the refinance market has also seen some modest improvement, with the potential for more growth throughout the year.
“While the mortgage market remains overwhelmingly purchase-centric, refinance incentive is rising, albeit slowly, alongside easing interest rates,” Walden continued. “Since interest rates peaked back in October, we’ve seen a threefold increase in the number of mortgage holders who could reduce their first lien rate by at least 75 bps with a rate/term refi. And while that population stands at roughly 1.7 million – up from 520K last fall – it is still a historically small number. Should rates fall to
“Under that scenario – a potential needle mover for the refinance market – some
The month’s data also shows that aggregate American mortgage holder equity ended 2023 at
Much more information on these and other topics can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.
About Mortgage Monitor
ICE manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the ICE Home Price Index and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering
ICE’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/
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Source: Intercontinental Exchange
Category: Mortgage Technology
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Source: Intercontinental Exchange