ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: June Sees Calendar-Driven Spike in Delinquencies; Foreclosures Remain Historically Low
ICE's First Look at June 2024 mortgage performance reveals a 14.5% spike in the national delinquency rate to 3.49%, primarily due to the month ending on a Sunday. Single payment delinquencies increased by 19.6%, the highest since May 2020. Despite this, foreclosure activity remains low, with starts declining 6.2% and active inventory 34% below pre-pandemic levels. Foreclosure sales decreased by 14.9% to 5,300, the lowest since February 2022. Prepayments eased by 7.6%, ending a six-month growth streak. The total U.S. loan delinquency rate stands at 3.49%, up 11.70% year-over-year, while the foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate is 0.35%, down 18.44% from last year.
Il primo sguardo di ICE sulle prestazioni dei mutui di Giugno 2024 rivela un aumento del 14,5% nel tasso di insolvenza nazionale che raggiunge il 3,49%, principalmente a causa del mese che termina di domenica. Le insolvenze per pagamento singolo sono aumentate del 19,6%, il livello più alto da Maggio 2020. Nonostante ciò, l'attività di pignoramento rimane bassa, con i nuovi avvii che diminuendo del 6,2% e l'inventario attivo al 34% sotto i livelli pre-pandemia. Le vendite da pignoramento sono diminuite del 14,9% scendendo a 5.300, il numero più basso da Febbraio 2022. Le cancellazioni anticipata sono diminuite del 7,6%, interrompendo una striscia di crescita che durava sei mesi. Il tasso totale di insolvenza dei prestiti negli Stati Uniti è fissato al 3,49%, in aumento dell'11,70% rispetto all'anno precedente, mentre il tasso di inventario pre-vendita di pignoramenti è allo 0,35%, in calo del 18,44% rispetto all'anno scorso.
El primer vistazo de ICE al rendimiento hipotecario de junio de 2024 revela un aumento del 14.5% en la tasa de morosidad nacional, alcanzando el 3.49%, principalmente debido a que el mes termina en domingo. Las morosidades de pago único aumentaron un 19.6%, el nivel más alto desde mayo de 2020. A pesar de esto, la actividad de ejecuciones hipotecarias sigue siendo baja, con un descenso del 6.2% en los inicios y un inventario activo un 34% por debajo de los niveles previos a la pandemia. Las ventas por ejecución hipotecaria disminuyeron un 14.9% a 5,300, el número más bajo desde febrero de 2022. Los pagos anticipados disminuyeron un 7.6%, poniendo fin a una racha de crecimiento de seis meses. La tasa total de morosidad de préstamos en EE.UU. se sitúa en el 3.49%, un aumento del 11.70% interanual, mientras que la tasa de inventario de pre-venta de ejecuciones hipotecarias es del 0.35%, una reducción del 18.44% con respecto al año pasado.
ICE의 2024년 6월 주택담보대출 성과에 대한 첫 번째 분석 결과는 전국 연체율이 14.5% 급증하여 3.49%에 이르렀으며, 이는 주말로 끝나는 달 때문입니다. 단일 지급 연체는 19.6% 증가하여 2020년 5월 이후 가장 높은 수치를 기록했습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 압류 활동은 여전히 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있으며, 시작 건수는 6.2% 감소하고, 현재 재고는 팬데믹 이전 수준보다 34% 낮습니다. 압류 판매는 14.9% 감소하여 5,300건으로, 2022년 2월 이후 가장 낮은 수치입니다. 선지급은 7.6% 감소했습니다, 6개월 연속 성장세를 끝냈습니다. 미국의 전체 대출 연체율은 3.49%로, 전년 대비 11.70% 상승했으며, 압류 사전판매 재고율은 0.35%로 지난해보다 18.44% 감소했습니다.
Le premier aperçu d'ICE sur la performance des prêts hypothécaires de juin 2024 révèle une augmentation de 14,5 % du taux de défaut national à 3,49 %, principalement en raison du mois se terminant un dimanche. Les défauts de paiement uniques ont augmenté de 19,6 %, le niveau le plus élevé depuis mai 2020. Malgré cela, l'activité de saisie reste faible, avec un recul de 6,2 % des nouveaux dossiers et un inventaire actif en baisse de 34 % par rapport aux niveaux d'avant la pandémie. Les ventes de saisie ont diminué de 14,9 % pour atteindre 5 300, le chiffre le plus bas depuis février 2022. Les remboursements anticipés ont diminué de 7,6 %, mettant fin à une série de croissance de six mois. Le taux total de défaut de paiement des prêts aux États-Unis s'élève à 3,49 %, en hausse de 11,70 % par rapport à l'année précédente, tandis que le taux d'inventaire des ventes anticipées de saisies est de 0,35 %, en baisse de 18,44 % par rapport à l'année dernière.
ICE's erster Blick auf die Hypothekenleistung im Juni 2024 zeigt einen Anstieg der nationalen Zahlungsrückstandquote um 14,5% auf 3,49%, hauptsächlich aufgrund des Monats, der an einem Sonntag endet. Einmalige Zahlungsausfälle stiegen um 19,6%, der höchste Wert seit Mai 2020. Dennoch bleibt die Zwangsversteigerungsaktivität niedrig, mit einem Rückgang von 6,2% bei den Neuanfängen und einem aktiven Inventar, das um 34% unter den Vorkrisenniveaus liegt. Zwangsversteigerungsverkäufe sanken um 14,9% auf 5.300, der niedrigste Wert seit Februar 2022. Die Vorzahlungen gingen um 7,6% zurück, wodurch eine sechsmonatige Wachstumsreihe beendet wurde. Die gesamte US-Darlehensausfallquote liegt bei 3,49%, was einem Anstieg von 11,70% im Jahresvergleich entspricht, während die Zwangsversteigerungsvorverkaufsinventarquote bei 0,35% liegt, was einen Rückgang von 18,44% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr bedeutet.
- Foreclosure starts declined 6.2%, pushing active foreclosure inventory to its lowest point since the end of COVID-era moratoriums
- Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) were down 8.5% year-over-year and 10.1% below pre-pandemic levels
- Foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate decreased by 18.44% year-over-year
- National delinquency rate jumped 14.5% to 3.49%, the second highest level in 18 months
- Number of borrowers a single payment past due increased by 19.6%, the highest inflow since May 2020
- 60-day delinquencies rose 11.8% to a five-month high
- Prepayments eased 7.6% from May, breaking a six-month streak of increasing prepay activity
Insights
The reported spike in national delinquency rates in June is notable but appears to be driven primarily by calendar quirks, specifically the month ending on a Sunday. This typically leads to temporary increases in delinquent payments, as payments made on the last day are processed the following month. However, the significant increases in 30-day and 60-day delinquencies could be a cause for concern if they persist beyond this calendar anomaly. Investors should closely monitor subsequent monthly performance to ascertain whether this is an emerging trend or a one-off occurrence. Importantly, the decline in foreclosure starts and the historically low levels of active foreclosures indicate a relatively stable housing market environment despite the uptick in delinquencies.
The mortgage performance statistics from ICE provide some mixed signals. While the spike in delinquencies might initially raise red flags, context is crucial. The data shows that serious delinquencies are still below pre-pandemic levels and that foreclosure inventory is at its lowest since the end of COVID-era moratoriums. This suggests that while short-term volatility in delinquency rates is noticeable, the long-term trends remain positive. This stability in foreclosure rates may continue to provide confidence to mortgage-backed securities investors.
From an economic perspective, the reported fluctuations in mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates reflect broader market dynamics. The continued low foreclosure rates, despite rising delinquencies, indicate that homeowners are generally managing to avoid the worst-case scenario of losing their homes. This can be attributed to improved economic conditions, such as lower unemployment rates and various government support measures. However, the regional disparities, with states like Mississippi and Louisiana experiencing higher levels of non-current loans, highlight the uneven economic recovery across the country.
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Coming off a near-record low in May and with June ending on a Sunday, the national delinquency rate jumped +
14.5% (+45 basis points) to3.49% , its second highest level in 18 months - Sunday month-ends often lead to sharp, but typically temporary, spikes in delinquent mortgages, as payments made on the last day of a given month are not processed until the following month
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As such, June saw a +
19.6% increase in the number of borrowers a single payment past due – the highest inflow since May 2020 – while 60-day delinquencies rose11.8% to a five-month high -
Though up
5.1% from May, serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) were still down ‑8.5% year over year and10.1% below pre-pandemic levels -
Foreclosure starts declined
6.2% in June – pushing active foreclosure inventory to its lowest point since the end of COVID-era moratoriums, now34% below pre-pandemic levels -
5.3K foreclosure sales were completed nationally in June, representing a -
14.9% month-over-month decrease to their lowest level since February 2022, still well below pre-pandemic norms -
Prepayments eased -
7.6% from May, breaking a six-month streak of increasing prepay activity as we near the typical seasonal peak of home sales, and affordability and rate constraints persist
Data as of June 30, 2024 |
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Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): |
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Foreclosure sales: 5,300 |
Month-over-month change: - |
Year-over-year change: - |
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Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,873,000 |
Month-over-month change: 239,000 |
Year-over-year change: 223,000 |
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Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 431,000 |
Month-over-month change: 21,000 |
Year-over-year change: -40,000 |
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Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 186,000 |
Month-over-month change: -6,000 |
Year-over-year change: -38,000 |
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Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,058,000 |
Month-over-month change: 233,000 |
Year-over-year change: 184,000 |
Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
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Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
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Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage |
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Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
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Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
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*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state. |
Notes: |
1) Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s McDash loan-level database of mortgage assets. |
2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred. |
The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports by August 5, 2024.
For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to Mortgage.Monitor@bkfs.com.
About Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming
Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the SEC on February 8, 2024.
Category: Mortgage Technology
ICE-CORP
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240722581650/en/
ICE Media Contact
Mitch Cohen
mitch.cohen@ice.com
+1 704-890-8158
ICE Investor Contact:
Katia Gonzalez
katia.gonzalez@ice.com
+1 (678) 981-3882
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
FAQ
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