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ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies improved in July despite Hurricane Beryl’s impact on Houston homeowners

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ICE's First Look at July 2024 mortgage performance shows a 12 basis point decrease in the national delinquency rate to 3.37%. Despite this overall improvement, Houston saw an increase due to Hurricane Beryl's impact. Key findings include:

- Serious delinquencies rose 1.1% but remain 7% lower year-over-year
- Foreclosure starts increased 30%, partly due to a multi-year low in the previous month
- Active foreclosure inventory remains 34% below pre-pandemic levels
- Prepayment activity reached its highest level since September 2022

The report also highlights state-specific data, with Mississippi leading in non-current and 90+ days delinquent percentages, while Colorado has the lowest non-current percentage.

Il primo sguardo di ICE sulle performance dei mutui di luglio 2024 mostra una riduzione di 12 punti base del tasso nazionale di insolvenza, scendendo al 3,37%. Nonostante questo miglioramento complessivo, Houston ha registrato un aumento a causa dell'impatto dell'uragano Beryl. I principali risultati includono:

- Le insolvenze gravi sono aumentate dell'1,1%, ma rimangono inferiori del 7% rispetto all'anno precedente
- Gli avvii di pignoramento sono aumentati del 30%, in parte a causa di un minimo pluriennale del mese precedente
- L'inventario attivo di pignoramenti rimane inferiore del 34% rispetto ai livelli pre-pandemia
- L'attività di rimborso anticipato ha raggiunto il suo livello più alto da settembre 2022

Il rapporto evidenzia anche dati specifici per stato, con il Mississippi in testa per le percentuali di non-current e di insolvenza oltre 90 giorni, mentre il Colorado ha la percentuale di non-current più bassa.

La primera mirada de ICE a la performance de las hipotecas de julio de 2024 muestra una disminución de 12 puntos básicos en la tasa nacional de morosidad, llegando al 3.37%. A pesar de esta mejora general, Houston experimentó un aumento debido al impacto del huracán Beryl. Los hallazgos clave incluyen:

- Las morosidades serias aumentaron un 1.1% pero se mantienen un 7% por debajo del año anterior
- Los inicios de ejecuciones hipotecarias aumentaron un 30%, en parte debido a un mínimo plurianual en el mes anterior
- El inventario activo de ejecuciones hipotecarias se mantiene un 34% por debajo de los niveles previos a la pandemia
- La actividad de prepago alcanzó su nivel más alto desde septiembre de 2022

El informe también destaca datos específicos por estado, con Mississippi liderando en porcentajes de no vigentes y morosidades de 90+ días, mientras que Colorado tiene el porcentaje de no vigentes más bajo.

ICE의 2024년 7월 모기지 성과에 대한 첫 번째 분석 결과, 전국 연체율이 3.37%로 12bp 감소했습니다. 이 전반적인 개선에도 불구하고, 휴스턴은 허리케인 베릴의 영향으로 증가세를 보였습니다. 주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:

- 심각한 연체는 1.1% 증가했지만 전년 대비 7% 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다
- 압류 시작은 30% 증가했으며, 이는 이전 달의 몇 년 간 최저치 때문입니다
- 현재 진행 중인 압류 재산은 팬데믹 이전 수준보다 34% 낮습니다
- 조기 상환 활동은 2022년 9월 이후 가장 높은 수준을 기록했습니다

보고서는 또한 주별 데이터에 주목하며, 미시시피가 90일 이상 연체 비율에서 가장 높은 수치를 기록하고 있습니다, 반면 콜로라도는 가장 낮은 비율을 보이고 있습니다.

Le premier aperçu d'ICE sur la performance des prêts hypothécaires de juillet 2024 montre une diminution de 12 points de base du taux national d'impayés, à 3,37%. Malgré cette amélioration générale, Houston a connu une augmentation en raison de l'impact de l'ouragan Beryl. Les principales conclusions comprennent:

- Les impayés graves ont augmenté de 1,1%, mais restent inférieurs de 7% par rapport à l'année précédente
- Les démarrages de saisie ont augmenté de 30%, en partie en raison d'un minimum pluriannuel le mois précédent
- Le stock actif de saisies reste inférieur de 34% aux niveaux d'avant la pandémie
- L'activité de remboursement anticipé a atteint son niveau le plus élevé depuis septembre 2022

Le rapport met également en avant des données spécifiques à chaque État, avec le Mississippi en tête des pourcentages d'impayés et de retards de plus de 90 jours, tandis que le Colorado a le pourcentage d'impayés le plus bas.

Der erste Überblick von ICE über die Hypothekenperformance im Juli 2024 zeigt einen Rückgang um 12 Basispunkte bei der nationalen Zahlungsverzugsquote auf 3,37%. Trotz dieser allgemeinen Verbesserung verzeichnete Houston einen Anstieg aufgrund der Auswirkungen von Hurrikan Beryl. Wichtige Erkenntnisse umfassen:

- Schwere Zahlungsverzüge stiegen um 1,1%, liegen jedoch 7% unter dem Vorjahr
- Die Zahl der Zwangsversteigerungen stieg um 30%, teilweise aufgrund eines mehrjährigen Tiefs im Vormonat
- Der aktive Bestand an Zwangsversteigerungen liegt 34% unter dem Niveau vor der Pandemie
- Die Vorfälligkeitsaktivität erreichte den höchsten Stand seit September 2022

Der Bericht hebt auch länderspezifische Daten hervor, wobei Mississippi bei den nicht aktuellen und über 90 Tage in Verzug befindlichen Prozentanteilen führend ist, während Colorado den niedrigsten Anteil nicht aktueller Kredite hat.

Positive
  • National delinquency rate decreased by 12 basis points to 3.37%
  • Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) are down 7% year-over-year
  • Active foreclosure inventory remains 34% below pre-pandemic levels
  • Prepayment activity (SMM) rose to 0.60%, highest since September 2022
  • Foreclosure sales are down 9.6% year-over-year
Negative
  • Delinquencies are up 4.8% compared to the same time last year
  • Hurricane Beryl caused an estimated 10,000 mortgage holders to fall behind on payments in Houston
  • Serious delinquencies rose by 5,000 (1.1%) to a five-month high
  • Foreclosure starts increased by 7,000 (30%) in July
  • 60-day delinquencies climbed by 11,000

Insights

The July mortgage performance data reveals a mixed picture for the housing market. The national delinquency rate's 12 bps drop to 3.37% is a positive sign, offsetting June's rise. However, the 4.8% year-over-year increase suggests underlying challenges. The 30% jump in foreclosure starts is concerning, although it's partly due to the previous month's low base. The 11.63% increase in prepayment activity to 0.60% SMM indicates improved refinancing opportunities due to easing rates. The divergence between states' non-current percentages, ranging from 8.02% in Mississippi to 2.00% in Colorado, highlights regional economic disparities. Investors should monitor these trends closely, as they may impact mortgage-backed securities and housing-related stocks.

Hurricane Beryl's impact on Houston homeowners, causing an estimated 10,000 mortgage holders to fall behind on payments, underscores the vulnerability of certain markets to natural disasters. This event likely contributed to the 1.1% increase in serious delinquencies. The contrasting trends between short-term (30-day) and longer-term (60-day and 90+day) delinquencies suggest a potential shift in consumer financial health. The 19.86% year-over-year increase in prepayment rates indicates a more active refinancing market, which could benefit mortgage lenders. However, the 15.93% year-over-year decrease in foreclosure inventory rates, while positive for homeowners, may impact companies involved in distressed property management.

The mortgage performance data provides valuable insights into the broader economic landscape. The 4.80% year-over-year increase in delinquencies, despite the monthly improvement, suggests persistent financial stress among homeowners. This could be a lagging indicator of economic challenges. The significant state-by-state variations in non-current percentages and their 12-month changes highlight the uneven nature of economic recovery across the U.S. States like Alaska and New York showing improvements contrast sharply with Arizona and Louisiana's deterioration. The overall foreclosure inventory remains 34% below pre-pandemic levels, indicating that government interventions and forbearance programs have been effective in preventing widespread housing distress. However, policymakers should closely monitor these trends as support measures are phased out.

  • The national delinquency rate fell 12 basis points (bps) to 3.37% in July, offsetting some of June’s calendar-related rise – dropping 3.5% for the month but up 4.8% from the same time last year
  • Delinquencies declined in all major markets except Houston, where Hurricane Beryl resulted in an estimated 10K mortgage holders falling behind on payments as a result of the storm
  • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) rose 5K (+1.1%) to a five-month high, but are still down -33K (-7.0%) from the same time last year
  • The number of borrowers a single payment past due dropped by -77K in July, while 60-day delinquencies climbed 11K
  • While foreclosure starts increased by 7K (30%) in the month, that’s partially a byproduct of starts hitting a multi-year low the month prior rather than a sign of underlying stress in the market
  • Active foreclosure inventory nudged higher (+2K), but remains at its second-lowest level since January 2022 and is still 34% below pre-pandemic levels
  • 5.5K foreclosure sales were completed in July representing a +3.7% month-over-month increase, but were down -9.6% from last year and are still running at less than half their 2019 averages
  • Prepayment activity (SMM) rose to 0.60% on easing rates, notching its highest mark since September 2022

ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, reports the following “first look” at July 2024 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

Data as of July 31, 2024

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.37%

Month-over-month change: -3.46%

Year-over-year change: 4.80%

 

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.35%

Month-over-month change: 1.05%

Year-over-year change: -15.93%

 

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 30,000

Month-over-month change 32.30%

Year-over-year change: 13.91%

 

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.60%

Month-over-month change: 11.63%

Year-over-year change: 19.86%

 

Foreclosure sales: 5,500

Month-over-month change: 3.69%

Year-over-year change: - 9.57%

 

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,812,000

Month-over-month change: -61,000

Year-over-year change: 112,000

 

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 435,000

Month-over-month change: 5,000

Year-over-year change: -33,000

 

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 188,000

Month-over-month change: 2,000

Year-over-year change: -32,000

 

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 1,999,000

Month-over-month change: -59,000

Year-over-year change: 80,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

Mississippi:

 8.02%

Louisiana:

7.93%

Alabama:

5.70%

Indiana:

5.34%

West Virginia:

5.16%

 

 

Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

Oregon:

2.12%

Montana:

2.03%

Idaho:

2.03%

Washington:

2.02%

Colorado:

2.00%

 

 

Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage

Mississippi:

 2.08%

Louisiana:

1.85%

Alabama:

1.45%

Arkansas:

1.28%

Indiana:

1.16%

 

 

 

 

Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage

Alaska:

-7.40%

New York:

 -6.59%

Vermont:

-3.57%

Idaho:

-3.29%

California:

-2.84%

 

 

Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage

Arizona:

11.73%

Louisiana:

11.32%

Tennessee:

9.33%

Arkansas:

8.96%

Nebraska:

8.07%

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:

1)

 

Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s McDash loan-level database of mortgage assets.

2)

 

All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.

The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports by Sept. 4, 2024.

For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to Mortgage.Monitor@bkfs.com.

About Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the SEC on February 8, 2024.

Category: Mortgage Technology
ICE-CORP
Source: Intercontinental Exchange

ICE Media Contact

Mitch Cohen

mitch.cohen@ice.com

+1 704-890-8158

ICE Investor Contact:

Katia Gonzalez

katia.gonzalez@ice.com

+1 (678) 981-3882

Source: Intercontinental Exchange

FAQ

What was the national mortgage delinquency rate in July 2024 according to ICE?

According to ICE's report, the national mortgage delinquency rate in July 2024 was 3.37%, which is a decrease of 12 basis points from the previous month.

How did Hurricane Beryl affect mortgage delinquencies in Houston?

Hurricane Beryl resulted in an estimated 10,000 mortgage holders falling behind on payments in Houston, causing an increase in delinquencies in that market.

What was the total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate in July 2024?

The total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate in July 2024 was 0.35%, showing a 1.05% month-over-month increase but a 15.93% year-over-year decrease.

How many foreclosure starts were there in July 2024 for ICE (NYSE:ICE)?

ICE reported 30,000 foreclosure starts in July 2024, which represents a 32.30% month-over-month increase and a 13.91% year-over-year increase.

What was the monthly prepayment rate (SMM) in July 2024 according to ICE's report?

The monthly prepayment rate (SMM) in July 2024 was 0.60%, showing an 11.63% month-over-month increase and a 19.86% year-over-year increase.

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