2025 Hamilton Lane Market Overview: Private Markets Reach an Inflection Point, though Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Strong
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) has released its 2025 Market Overview, providing a comprehensive analysis of private markets based on data from over 58,000 funds across 57 vintage years. The report highlights both opportunities and challenges in the private markets landscape.
Key investment recommendations include focusing on credit, infrastructure, and secondaries, maintaining exposure to venture and growth sectors (particularly AI), and targeting U.S. markets over other geographies for the next 4-5 years. The report emphasizes strong opportunities in co-investments and equity sectors where selective positioning is possible.
While short-term performance shows infrastructure and real estate performing well and private credit remaining stable, private equity has experienced recent underperformance. However, long-term fundamentals remain robust, with private credit outperforming public markets for 23 consecutive years and infrastructure maintaining outperformance for 12 years.
The report predicts significant growth in evergreen structures, projecting faster growth than public markets over the next five years, with institutional investors increasing their presence and fees likely to decline.
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) ha pubblicato la sua Panoramica di Mercato 2025, fornendo un'analisi completa dei mercati privati basata su dati provenienti da oltre 58.000 fondi distribuiti su 57 anni di vintage. Il rapporto evidenzia sia le opportunità che le sfide nel panorama dei mercati privati.
Le principali raccomandazioni di investimento includono il focus su credito, infrastrutture e secondari, mantenendo un'esposizione ai settori del venture e della crescita (particolarmente nell'AI), e puntando sui mercati statunitensi rispetto ad altre geografie per i prossimi 4-5 anni. Il rapporto sottolinea forti opportunità nei co-investimenti e nei settori azionari dove è possibile una posizione selettiva.
Sebbene le performance a breve termine mostrino infrastrutture e immobili che stanno performando bene e il credito privato rimanga stabile, il private equity ha subito recentemente un'underperformance. Tuttavia, i fondamentali a lungo termine rimangono solidi, con il credito privato che ha sovraperformato i mercati pubblici per 23 anni consecutivi e le infrastrutture che mantengono una sovraperformance per 12 anni.
Il rapporto prevede una significativa crescita nelle strutture evergreen, proiettando una crescita più rapida rispetto ai mercati pubblici nei prossimi cinque anni, con gli investitori istituzionali che aumentano la loro presenza e le commissioni che probabilmente diminuiranno.
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) ha publicado su Visión del Mercado 2025, proporcionando un análisis exhaustivo de los mercados privados basado en datos de más de 58,000 fondos a lo largo de 57 años vintage. El informe destaca tanto las oportunidades como los desafíos en el panorama de los mercados privados.
Las principales recomendaciones de inversión incluyen enfocarse en crédito, infraestructura y secundarios, manteniendo exposición a los sectores de capital de riesgo y crecimiento (particularmente en IA), y apuntando a los mercados de EE. UU. sobre otras geografías durante los próximos 4-5 años. El informe enfatiza las fuertes oportunidades en co-inversiones y sectores de capital donde es posible una posición selectiva.
Aunque el rendimiento a corto plazo muestra que la infraestructura y los bienes raíces están desempeñándose bien y el crédito privado se mantiene estable, el capital privado ha experimentado un rendimiento inferior recientemente. Sin embargo, los fundamentos a largo plazo siguen siendo sólidos, con el crédito privado superando a los mercados públicos durante 23 años consecutivos y la infraestructura manteniendo un rendimiento superior durante 12 años.
El informe predice un crecimiento significativo en estructuras evergreen, proyectando un crecimiento más rápido que los mercados públicos en los próximos cinco años, con los inversores institucionales aumentando su presencia y es probable que las tarifas disminuyan.
해밀턴 레인 (HLNE)은 2025년 시장 개요를 발표하며 57년의 빈티지 데이터를 바탕으로 58,000개 이상의 펀드에 대한 포괄적인 분석을 제공합니다. 이 보고서는 사모 시장의 기회와 도전을 모두 강조합니다.
주요 투자 권장 사항으로는 신용, 인프라 및 세컨더리에 집중하고, 벤처 및 성장 분야(특히 AI)에 대한 노출을 유지하며, 향후 4-5년 동안 다른 지역보다 미국 시장을 목표로 하는 것이 포함됩니다. 이 보고서는 공동 투자 및 선택적 포지셔닝이 가능한 주식 부문에서 강력한 기회를 강조합니다.
단기 성과는 인프라와 부동산이 잘 수행되고 사모 신용이 안정적으로 유지되고 있지만, 사모 주식은 최근 저조한 성과를 경험했습니다. 그러나 장기적인 기본 요소는 여전히 견고하며, 사모 신용은 23년 연속으로 공공 시장을 초과 성과를 내고 있으며 인프라는 12년 동안 초과 성과를 유지하고 있습니다.
이 보고서는 상시 구조에서 상당한 성장을 예측하며, 향후 5년 동안 공공 시장보다 더 빠른 성장을 예상하고, 기관 투자자들이 그들의 존재를 증가시키고 수수료가 감소할 가능성이 높다고 합니다.
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) a publié sa Vue d'ensemble du marché 2025, fournissant une analyse complète des marchés privés basée sur des données provenant de plus de 58 000 fonds répartis sur 57 années vintage. Le rapport met en évidence à la fois les opportunités et les défis dans le paysage des marchés privés.
Les principales recommandations d'investissement incluent de se concentrer sur le crédit, les infrastructures et les secondaires, de maintenir une exposition aux secteurs du capital-risque et de la croissance (particulièrement dans l'IA), et de cibler les marchés américains plutôt que d'autres géographies pour les 4-5 prochaines années. Le rapport souligne de fortes opportunités dans les co-investissements et les secteurs d'actions où un positionnement sélectif est possible.
Bien que la performance à court terme montre que les infrastructures et l'immobilier se portent bien et que le crédit privé reste stable, le capital-investissement a récemment connu une sous-performance. Cependant, les fondamentaux à long terme restent solides, le crédit privé surpassant les marchés publics pendant 23 années consécutives et les infrastructures maintenant une surperformance pendant 12 ans.
Le rapport prévoit une croissance significative des structures evergreen, projetant une croissance plus rapide que les marchés publics au cours des cinq prochaines années, avec des investisseurs institutionnels augmentant leur présence et des frais susceptibles de diminuer.
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) hat seinen Marktüberblick 2025 veröffentlicht, der eine umfassende Analyse der privaten Märkte auf der Grundlage von Daten aus über 58.000 Fonds über 57 Vintage-Jahre bietet. Der Bericht hebt sowohl Chancen als auch Herausforderungen im Bereich der privaten Märkte hervor.
Wichtige Investitionsempfehlungen umfassen den Fokus auf Kredite, Infrastruktur und Sekundärmärkte, die Beibehaltung der Exposition gegenüber den Bereichen Venture und Wachstum (insbesondere KI) sowie die Zielsetzung auf die US-Märkte im Vergleich zu anderen geografischen Regionen für die nächsten 4-5 Jahre. Der Bericht betont starke Möglichkeiten bei Co-Investitionen und in den Aktiensektoren, wo eine selektive Positionierung möglich ist.
Während die kurzfristige Performance zeigt, dass Infrastruktur und Immobilien gut abschneiden und private Kredite stabil bleiben, hat Private Equity kürzlich eine Underperformance erlebt. Die langfristigen Fundamentaldaten bleiben jedoch robust, mit privatem Kredit, der 23 Jahre in Folge die öffentlichen Märkte übertroffen hat, und Infrastruktur, die seit 12 Jahren überdurchschnittlich abschneidet.
Der Bericht prognostiziert ein signifikantes Wachstum bei Evergreen-Strukturen, mit einer schnelleren Wachstumsprognose als für die öffentlichen Märkte in den nächsten fünf Jahren, wobei institutionelle Investoren ihre Präsenz erhöhen und die Gebühren voraussichtlich sinken werden.
- Private credit maintains 23-year streak of outperforming public markets
- Infrastructure sector shows 12 consecutive years of outperformance
- Strong co-investment activity growth with positive returns
- Increased secondaries activity providing new liquidity solutions
- Private equity experiencing short-term underperformance
- Challenging fundraising environment expected for next 12 months
- Recent vintage funds likely to face performance challenges
- Smaller private markets firms struggling to gain market share
Insights
Hamilton Lane's 2025 Market Overview presents a nuanced assessment of private markets reaching an inflection point - acknowledging short-term headwinds while maintaining confidence in long-term fundamentals. This annual research publication leverages the firm's extensive database covering 58,000+ funds across 57 vintage years, positioning HLNE as a knowledge leader in private markets.
The report strategically identifies specific investment opportunities in credit, infrastructure, and secondaries, while also highlighting AI-focused venture/growth companies and selective equity co-investments. Their geographic preference for U.S. investments over other markets signals where HLNE likely sees better risk-adjusted returns.
Particularly noteworthy is their bullish stance on evergreen fund structures, projecting faster growth than public markets over the next five years. This indicates HLNE's strategic direction, as they forecast consolidation where large firms capture increasing market share while smaller players struggle - suggesting HLNE aims to position itself among these market leaders.
The short-term performance data reveals challenges for private equity, which has temporarily underperformed after decades of outperformance. However, HLNE confidently predicts this is merely an anomaly rather than a secular trend, expecting buyout IRRs to resume outperforming public returns.
For Hamilton Lane's business model, the highlighted increase in co-investment and secondaries activity represents significant opportunity, as these are typically high-margin services that asset managers can offer alongside their traditional fund products.
Hamilton Lane's Market Overview reveals a carefully balanced message - they're acknowledging private market headwinds while reassuring investors about long-term performance. This indicates HLNE is positioning itself as a steady hand during market fluctuations, rather than simply promoting private markets uncritically.
The report's sector recommendations provide clear insights into HLNE's strategic thinking. Their emphasis on credit, infrastructure and secondaries suggests defensive positioning, while still maintaining exposure to higher-growth segments through selective venture/growth investments, particularly in AI. This balanced approach across the risk spectrum likely reflects how they're advising clients to construct portfolios.
Their unprecedented focus on evergreen structures represents the most significant strategic signal. HLNE is clearly preparing for structural industry change, predicting these vehicles will outgrow traditional public markets and that fees will decline. By highlighting this trend, HLNE appears to be signaling to investors its adaptability to evolving market structures.
The candid acknowledgment that fundraising will face challenges in the next 12 months shows transparency, while noting that firms successfully fundraising are those investing in technology and innovative structures - presumably including HLNE itself. This suggests the company is positioning technological capability as a competitive advantage.
The extensive performance data highlighting 23 straight years of outperformance in private credit and strong infrastructure returns strengthens HLNE's credibility in these sectors, while their characterization of private equity's underperformance as temporary reveals their long-term conviction in the strategy that has historically been their core focus.
- Research findings note some areas of concern in private markets in the short-term, with positive tailwinds across long-term fundamentals
- Report also highlights strong runway for growth within evergreen
The firm's annual Market Overview is a comprehensive, data-driven review and analysis of private markets investment activity over the prior year, as well as predictions for the year ahead. The detailed report leverages Hamilton Lane's industry-leading database that encompasses data on more than 58,000 funds across 57 vintage years*. Among the report's findings:
WHERE TO INVEST
- Credit, infrastructure and secondaries: Each of these sectors is set up for success.
- Venture and growth: Investors should have exposure to these areas. AI applications will likely sweep the business landscape and many of those companies will be incubated and developed in the private markets sphere.
- Equity: In particular, the co-investment side where investors can be selective.
U.S. : The U.S. market is expected to be relatively more attractive than all other geographies over the next 4-5 years.- Data and technology: Invest in portfolio analytics, whether for construction or analysis.
AREAS TO WATCH
- Evergreen structures: When it comes to evergreen funds, Hamilton Lane expects the following to be true:
- Evergreen funds will grow faster than the overall rate of public markets over the next five years;
- Institutional investors will become bigger players in the evergreen space;
- Evergreen fund fees will decline over time;
- Closed-end funds in certain strategies will decline and largely disappear;
- The growth of evergreen funds will result in the largest private markets firms getting larger and smaller private markets firms struggling to get any market share.
- Short-term performance: Infrastructure and real estate have done very well, private credit has remained stable, while private equity has underperformed. But does this short-term view signal the end of private equity's historical outperformance? While recent vintages will likely face challenges, manager and asset selection will play a crucial role, perhaps more so than in most market conditions. [See 'Private vs. Public Performance' chart]
- Fundraising prediction: The next 12 months will likely bring increased challenges. Exit activity must see a meaningful rebound for fundraising to pick up. Competition is expanding, and the race to retail is on. The firms who are successfully accessing the fundraising market today are those who are investing in technology and innovative investment structures that address the demands of new audiences.
STRONG LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS CONTINUE
- Long-term performance: As shown in the Pooled Returns by Vintage Year' chart, private credit has remained undefeated: 23 straight years of outperforming the public markets. Infrastructure has also maintained this trend for the past 12 years. It is only private equity buyout and real estate that saw the streak end in the last year. Hamilton Lane expects that this one-year dip is an anomaly and that, in five years, when looking at the vintage returns, the buyout IRR will have outperformed public returns in every year. Investors assuming that the last year is a window into future performance are ignoring the prior 30 years.
- Co-investment and secondaries uptick: Co-investment activity continues to increase, driven by several factors: fewer co-investment players in the market, a desire by general partners to conserve capital in a tough fundraising environment, increased acceptance by the market of co-investment as a standard practice of doing deals, and strong returns for funds and investors who have done co-investments on a regular basis. There has been an increase in secondaries activity for some of the same reasons, as well as interest from both LPs and GPs in secondary deals as a liquidity solution.
Mario Giannini, Executive Co-Chairman and author of the Market Overview, commented: "We believe that investors deserve high-quality data, actual transparency and continued education around this long-term asset class. And as we look at the year ahead, investors need to come to terms with the reality that there appears to be a recalibration in certain pockets of the global private markets, despite the fact that overall, the private markets are neutral right now. Longer term, we continue to have high conviction in the value of this asset class, and we urge investors to read, study and think carefully about portfolio construction and the diversification benefits that private markets have consistently demonstrated."
To access the full 2025 Hamilton Lane Market Overview, click here.
*as of 12/31/24
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Definitions
All Private Markets: Hamilton Lane's definition of "All Private Markets" includes all private commingled funds, excluding fund-of-funds, and secondary fund-of-funds.
BofAML High Yield Index: The BofAML High Yield index tracks the performance of below investment grade
Corporate Finance/Buyout: Any PM fund that generally takes control position by buying a company.
Credit: This strategy focuses on providing debt capital.
DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index: The DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index is designed to measure the performance of companies globally that are operators of pure-play infrastructure assets.
Growth Equity: Any PM fund that focuses on providing growth capital through an equity investment.
Infrastructure: An investment strategy that invests in physical systems involved in the distribution of people, goods, and resources.
Internal Rate of Return (IRR): IRR is the annual rate of growth that an investment is expected to generate. Mathematically, the interest rate that sets the net present value of all cash flows to zero.
MSCI World Index: The MSCI World Index tracks large and mid-cap equity performance in developed market countries.
PME (Public Market Equivalent): Calculated by taking the fund cash flows and investing them in a relevant index. The fund cash flows are pooled such that capital calls are simulated as index share purchases and distributions as index share sales. Contributions are scaled by a factor such that the ending portfolio balance is equal to the private equity net asset value (equal ending exposures for both portfolios). This seeks to prevent shorting of the public market equivalent portfolio. Distributions are not scaled by this factor. The IRR is calculated based on these adjusted cash flows.
Real Estate: Any closed-end fund that primarily invests in non-core real estate, excluding separate accounts and joint ventures.
S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index tracks 500 largest companies based on market capitalization of companies listed on NYSE or NASDAQ.
Venture Capital: Venture Capital incudes any PM fund focused on any stages of venture capital investing, including seed, early-stage, mid-stage, and late-stage investments.
About Hamilton Lane
Hamilton Lane (Nasdaq: HLNE) is one of the largest private markets investment firms globally, providing innovative solutions to institutional and private wealth investors around the world. Dedicated exclusively to private markets investing for more than 30 years, the firm currently employs approximately 740 professionals operating in offices throughout
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SOURCE Hamilton Lane
FAQ
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