GFL Environmental Inc. Hosts 2025 Investor Day

Rhea-AI Summary

GFL Environmental, North America's fourth-largest environmental services company, hosted its 2025 Investor Day in New York City to present its 2028 financial framework. The company outlined ambitious growth targets, including:

- Annual organic revenue growth of 5.0-6.0%
- 40 basis points annual organic Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion
- Revenue contribution of $285-440M from EPR, RNG and self-help levers (2026-2028)
- Adjusted EBITDA contribution of $270-380M from same initiatives

By 2028, GFL projects revenue between $9.24-9.49 billion and Adjusted EBITDA between $3.04-3.12 billion. The company plans to deploy $700-900M annually for acquisitions while maintaining net leverage in the low 3s. These projections assume continued organic growth, operational efficiencies, and stable economic conditions.

Positive

• Projected strong revenue growth to $9.24-9.49B by 2028
• Significant EBITDA expansion to $3.04-3.12B by 2028
• Substantial M&A capacity of $700-900M annually
• 40 basis points annual organic EBITDA margin improvement
• Additional $285-440M revenue from EPR, RNG initiatives

Negative

• Framework assumes stable economic conditions
• Success dependent on execution of acquisition strategy
• Projections rely on construction completion of renewable facilities

VAUGHAN, ON, Feb. 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ - GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL) (TSX: GFL) ("GFL" or the "Company"), a leading North American diversified environmental services company, is hosting an Investor Day today in New York City. The event is scheduled to begin at 9:00 am Eastern Time and will showcase members of senior management who will discuss the Company's growth strategies, capital allocation plan, sustainability initiatives and financial objectives, followed by a question and answer session.

At today's meeting, GFL will present its 2028 financial framework which includes:

• Annual organic revenue growth of approximately 5.0% to 6.0%; 40 basis points of annual organic Adjusted EBITDA margin⁽¹⁾ expansion
• Revenue contribution of $285 million to $440 million from EPR, RNG and self-help levers for the 2026 to 2028 period
• Adjusted EBITDA⁽¹⁾ contribution of $270 million to $380 million from EPR, RNG and self-help levers for the 2026 to 2028 period
• Adjusted EBITDA margins⁽¹⁾ of low-to-mid 30s
• Adjusted Free Cash Flow⁽¹⁾ conversion of mid 40s
• Deployment of ~$700 million to $900 million annually on acquisitions, financed from Adjusted Free Cash Flow⁽¹⁾ and available liquidity
• Committed to maintaining Net Leverage⁽¹⁾ in the ~low 3s

Based on the above framework, GFL expects 2028 revenue could be between $9,240 million and $9,490 million and 2028 Adjusted EBITDA⁽¹⁾ could be between $3,045 million and $3,120 million.

______________________ (1) Information contained herein includes Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow and Net Leverage which are non-IFRS measures or supplemental measures. Due to the uncertainty of the likelihood, amount and timing of effects of events or circumstances to be excluded from these measures, GFL does not have information available to provide a quantitative reconciliation of such projections to comparable IFRS measures. See "Non-IFRS Measures" below.

Implicit in forward-looking information in respect of the above framework are certain current assumptions, including, among others, that the Company will continue to execute on its strategy of organically growing its business, leveraging its scalable network to attract and retain customers, realize operational efficiencies, and extract procurement and cost synergies. Additional assumptions include no changes to the current economic environment, no material changes in interest rates and foreign exchange rates, continued margin expansion and sufficient free cash flow to fund acquisitions. The M&A assumptions are based on the fragmented nature of the industry, historical experience with acquisitions and the current robust pipeline. The renewable energy assumptions are based on the expectation that construction of the required facilities will proceed as scheduled, and expectations regarding markets for renewable energy credits and access to end markets. See "Forward-Looking Information".

About GFL

GFL, headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing a comprehensive line of solid waste management, liquid waste management and soil remediation services through its platform of facilities throughout Canada and in more than half of the U.S. states. Across its organization, GFL has a workforce of approximately 20,000 employees.

Forward-Looking Information

This release includes certain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" (collectively, "forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable U.S. and Canadian securities laws, respectively. Forward-looking information includes all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts and may relate to our future outlook, financial guidance and anticipated events or results and may include statements regarding our financial performance, financial condition or results, business strategy, growth strategies, budgets, operations and services. Particularly, statements regarding our expectations of future results, performance, achievements, prospects or opportunities, the markets in which we operate, potential asset sales, potential deleveraging transactions, potential share repurchases or potential strategic transactions are forward-looking information. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "targets", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "an opportunity exists", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "outlook", "forecasts", "projection", "prospects", "strategy", "intends", "anticipates", "does not anticipate", "believes", or "potential" or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might", "will", "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved", although not all forward-looking information includes those words or phrases. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections, guidance, potential or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts nor assurances of future performance but instead represent management's expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances.

Forward-looking information is based on our opinions, estimates and assumptions that we considered appropriate and reasonable as of the date such information is stated, is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information, including but not limited to certain assumptions set out herein; our ability to obtain and maintain existing financing on acceptable terms; our ability to source and execute on acquisitions on terms acceptable to us; our ability to complete the sale of the Environmental Services business on existing terms; our ability to use the proceeds of any such sale for deleveraging or potential share repurchases; currency exchange and interest rates; commodity price fluctuations; our ability to implement price increases and surcharges; changes in waste volumes; labour, supply chain and transportation constraints; inflationary cost pressures; fuel supply and fuel price fluctuations; our ability to maintain a favourable working capital position; the impact of competition; the changes and trends in our industry or the global economy; and changes in laws, rules, regulations, and global standards. Other important factors that could materially affect our forward-looking information can be found in the "Risk Factors" section of GFL's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2024 and GFL's other periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. Shareholders, potential investors and other readers are urged to consider these risks carefully in evaluating our forward-looking information and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such information. There can be no assurance that the underlying opinions, estimates and assumptions will prove to be correct. Although we have attempted to identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking information, there may be other factors not currently known to us or that we currently believe are not material that could also cause actual results or future events to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking information. There can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such information. The forward-looking information contained in this release represents our expectations as of the date of this release (or as the date it is otherwise stated to be made), and is subject to change after such date. However, we disclaim any intention or obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable U.S. or Canadian securities laws. The purpose of disclosing our financial outlook set out in this release is to provide investors with more information concerning the financial impact of our business initiatives and growth strategies.

Non-IFRS Measures

This release makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures. These measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Accordingly, these measures should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS. Rather, these non-IFRS measures are used to provide investors with supplemental measures of our operating performance and thus highlight trends in our core business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on IFRS measures. We also believe that securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-IFRS measures in the evaluation of issuers. Our management also uses non-IFRS measures in order to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period, to prepare annual operating budgets and forecasts and to determine components of management compensation.

EBITDA represents, for the applicable period, net income (loss) plus (a) interest and other finance costs, plus (b) depreciation and amortization of property and equipment, landfill assets and intangible assets, plus (less) (c) the provision (recovery) for income taxes, in each case to the extent deducted or added to/from net income (loss). We present EBITDA to assist readers in understanding the mathematical development of Adjusted EBITDA. Management does not use EBITDA as a financial performance metric.

Adjusted EBITDA is a supplemental measure used by management and other users of our financial statements including, our lenders and investors, to assess the financial performance of our business without regard to financing methods or capital structure. Adjusted EBITDA is also a key metric that management uses prior to execution of any strategic investing or financing opportunity. For example, management uses Adjusted EBITDA as a measure in determining the value of acquisitions, expansion opportunities, and dispositions. In addition, Adjusted EBITDA is utilized by financial institutions to measure borrowing capacity. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by adding and deducting, as applicable from EBITDA, certain expenses, costs, charges or benefits incurred in such period which in management's view are either not indicative of underlying business performance or impact the ability to assess the operating performance of our business, including: (a) (gain) loss on foreign exchange, (b) (gain) loss on sale of property and equipment, (c) mark-to-market (gain) loss on Purchase Contracts, (d) share of net (income) loss of investments accounted for using the equity method for associates, (e) share-based payments, (f) (gain) loss on divestiture, (g) transaction costs, (h) acquisition, rebranding and other integration costs (included in cost of sales related to acquisition activity), (i) Founder/CEO remuneration and (j) other. We use Adjusted EBITDA to facilitate a comparison of our operating performance on a consistent basis reflecting factors and trends affecting our business. As we continue to grow our business, we may be faced with new events or circumstances that are not indicative of our underlying business performance or that impact the ability to assess our operating performance.

Adjusted EBITDA margin represents Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue. Management and other users of our financial statements including our lenders and investors use Adjusted EBITDA margin to facilitate a comparison of the operating performance of each of our operating segments on a consistent basis reflecting factors and trends affecting our business.

Acquisition EBITDA represents, for the applicable period, management's estimates of the annual Adjusted EBITDA of an acquired business, based on its most recently available historical financial information at the time of acquisition, as adjusted to give effect to (a) the elimination of expenses related to the prior owners and certain other costs and expenses that are not indicative of the underlying business performance, if any, as if such business had been acquired on the first day of such period and (b) contract and acquisition annualization for contracts entered into and acquisitions completed by such acquired business prior to our acquisition (collectively, "Acquisition EBITDA Adjustments"). Further adjustments are made to such annual Adjusted EBITDA to reflect estimated operating cost savings and synergies, if any, anticipated to be realized upon acquisition and integration of the business into our operations. Acquisition EBITDA is calculated net of divestitures. We use Acquisition EBITDA for the acquired businesses to adjust our Adjusted EBITDA to include a proportional amount of the Acquisition EBITDA of the acquired businesses based upon the respective number of months of operation for such period prior to the date of our acquisition of each such business.

Adjusted Cash Flows from Operating Activities represents cash flows from operating activities adjusted for (a) transaction costs, (b) acquisition, rebranding and other integration costs, (c) Founder/CEO remuneration, (d) cash interest paid on TEUs, (e) cash taxes related to divestitures and (f) distribution received from joint ventures. Adjusted Cash Flows from Operating Activities is a supplemental measure used by investors as a valuation and liquidity measure in our industry and is used by management to evaluate and monitor liquidity and the ongoing financial performance of GFL.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow represents Adjusted Cash Flows from Operating Activities adjusted for (a) proceeds on disposal of assets and other, (b) purchase of property and equipment and (c) incremental growth investments. Adjusted Free Cash Flow is a supplemental measure used by investors as a valuation and liquidity measure in our industry. Adjusted Free Cash Flow is a supplemental measure used by management to evaluate and monitor liquidity and the ongoing financial performance of GFL.

Net Leverage is a supplemental measure used by management to evaluate borrowing capacity and capital allocation strategies. Net Leverage is equal to our total long-term debt, as adjusted for fair value, deferred financings and other adjustments and reduced by our cash, divided by Run-Rate EBITDA.

Run-Rate EBITDA represents Adjusted EBITDA for the applicable period as adjusted to give effect to management's estimates of (a) Acquisition EBITDA Adjustments (as defined above) and (b) the impact of annualization of certain new municipal and disposal contracts and cost savings initiatives, entered into, commenced or implemented, as applicable, in such period, as if such contracts or costs savings initiatives had been entered into, commenced or implemented, as applicable, on the first day of such period ((a) and (b), collectively, "Run-Rate EBITDA Adjustments"). Run-Rate EBITDA has not been adjusted to take into account the impact of the cancellation of contracts and cost increases associated with these contracts. These adjustments reflect monthly allocations of Acquisition EBITDA for the acquired businesses based on straight line proration. As a result, these estimates do not take into account the seasonality of a particular acquired business. While we do not believe the seasonality of any one acquired business is material when aggregated with other acquired businesses, the estimates may result in a higher or lower adjustment to our Run-Rate EBITDA than would have resulted had we adjusted for the actual results of each of the acquired businesses for the period prior to our acquisition. We primarily use Run-Rate EBITDA to show how GFL would have performed if each of the acquired businesses had been consummated at the start of the period as well as to show the impact of the annualization of certain new municipal and disposal contracts and cost savings initiatives. We also believe that Run-Rate EBITDA is useful to investors and creditors to monitor and evaluate our borrowing capacity and compliance with certain of our debt covenants. Run-Rate EBITDA as presented herein is calculated in accordance with the terms of our revolving credit agreement.

All references to "$" in this press release are to Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted.

For more information:
Patrick Dovigi
+1 905-326-0101
pdovigi@gflenv.com

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SOURCE GFL Environmental Inc.

FAQ

What are GFL Environmental's revenue projections for 2028?

GFL projects 2028 revenue between $9.24-9.49 billion, driven by 5-6% annual organic growth and additional revenue from EPR, RNG, and self-help initiatives.

How much does GFL plan to spend on acquisitions annually through 2028?

GFL plans to deploy approximately $700-900 million annually on acquisitions, funded through Adjusted Free Cash Flow and available liquidity.

What is GFL's expected EBITDA margin target for 2028?

GFL aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid 30s by 2028, with 40 basis points of annual organic margin expansion.

What additional revenue does GFL expect from EPR, RNG, and self-help initiatives?

GFL expects $285-440 million in additional revenue contribution from EPR, RNG, and self-help levers during the 2026-2028 period.