Mortgage Rate Optimism Spikes, but Homebuying Pessimism Persists
The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 0.6 points in August to 72.1, showing a significant rise in consumer optimism about future mortgage rates. A survey-high 39% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline in the next 12 months, up from 29% in July. Despite this improved affordability outlook, only 17% of consumers believe it's a good time to buy a home.
The survey revealed interesting regional variations in housing sentiment, particularly between the South and Northeast, likely reflecting differences in housing supply and construction activity. While 65% of respondents overall believe it's a good time to sell a home, only 56% in the South agreed, compared to 80% in the Northeast.
The HPSI is up 5.2 points year over year, with notable changes in mortgage rate expectations and home price predictions. However, concerns about housing affordability and supply persist among consumers.
L'indice di sentiment per l'acquisto di case di Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) è aumentato di 0,6 punti ad agosto, raggiungendo 72,1, dimostrando un significativo aumento dell'ottimismo dei consumatori riguardo ai futuri tassi ipotecari. Un record del 39% dei consumatori si aspetta che i tassi ipotecari diminuiscano nei prossimi 12 mesi, rispetto al 29% di luglio. Nonostante questa prospettiva di maggiore accessibilità, solo il 17% dei consumatori crede che sia un buon momento per acquistare una casa.
Il sondaggio ha rivelato interessanti variazioni regionali nel sentiment abitativo, in particolare tra il Sud e il Nord-est, probabilmente riflettendo differenze nell'offerta di alloggi e nell'attività di costruzione. Sebbene il 65% dei rispondenti a livello generale creda sia un buon momento per vendere una casa, solo il 56% nel Sud è d'accordo, rispetto all'80% nel Nord-est.
l'HPSI è aumentato di 5,2 punti su base annua, con notevoli cambiamenti nelle aspettative sui tassi ipotecari e nelle previsioni sui prezzi delle case. Tuttavia, persistono preoccupazioni riguardo all'accessibilità e all'offerta di abitazioni tra i consumatori.
El índice de sentimiento sobre la compra de viviendas de Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) aumentó 0.6 puntos en agosto, alcanzando 72.1, lo que muestra un aumento significativo en el optimismo de los consumidores sobre las futuras tasas hipotecarias. Un récord del 39% de los consumidores espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan en los próximos 12 meses, en comparación con el 29% de julio. A pesar de esta perspectiva de mayor asequibilidad, solo el 17% de los consumidores cree que es un buen momento para comprar una casa.
La encuesta reveló interesantes variaciones regionales en el sentimiento sobre la vivienda, particularmente entre el Sur y el Noreste, lo que probablemente refleja diferencias en la oferta de vivienda y la actividad constructiva. Mientras que el 65% de los encuestados en general cree que es un buen momento para vender una casa, solo el 56% en el Sur está de acuerdo, en comparación con el 80% en el Noreste.
El HPSI ha aumentado 5.2 puntos en comparación con el año anterior, con cambios notables en las expectativas de tasas hipotecarias y predicciones de precios de viviendas. Sin embargo, persisten las preocupaciones sobre la asequibilidad y la oferta de vivienda entre los consumidores.
Fannie Mae(OTCQB: FNMA)의 주택 구매 심리 지수(HPSI)가 8월에 0.6포인트 상승하여 72.1에 도달했습니다. 이는 향후 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 소비자들의 낙관주의가 크게 증가했음을 보여줍니다. 조사에서 39%의 소비자가 향후 12개월 내에 주택담보대출 금리가 하락할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이는 7월의 29%에서 증가한 수치입니다. 개선된 주택 구매 여건에도 불구하고, 단지 17%의 소비자만이 지금이 집을 사기에 좋은 시기라고 생각합니다.
조사에서는 주택 심리에 대한 흥미로운 지역적 차이가 드러났으며, 특히 남부와 북동부 간의 차이가 두드러지며, 이는 주택 공급 및 건설 활동의 차이를 반영하는 것으로 보입니다. 전체 응답자의 65%가 전반적으로 집을 팔기에 좋은 시기라고 믿고 있지만, 남부에서는 56%만이 동의하며, 북동부에서는 80%가 동의했습니다.
HPSI는 전년 대비 5.2포인트 상승했으며, 주택담보대출 금리와 주택 가격 예측에 대한 주목할 만한 변화가 있었습니다. 그러나 소비자들 사이에 주택의 구매 가능성과 공급에 대한 우려는 여전히 존재합니다.
L'indice de sentiment d'achat de maison de Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) a augmenté de 0,6 point en août, atteignant 72,1, montrant une augmentation significative de l'optimisme des consommateurs concernant les taux hypothécaires futurs. Un record de 39 % des consommateurs s'attendent à une baisse des taux hypothécaires au cours des 12 prochains mois, contre 29 % en juillet. Malgré cette perspective d'accessibilité améliorée, seulement 17 % des consommateurs pensent que c'est un bon moment pour acheter une maison.
Le sondage a révélé des variations régionales intéressantes dans le sentiment immobilier, en particulier entre le Sud et le Nord-Est, ce qui reflète probablement des différences dans l'offre de logements et l'activité de construction. Bien que 65 % des répondants, en général, pensent que c'est un bon moment pour vendre une maison, seulement 56 % dans le Sud étaient d'accord, contre 80 % dans le Nord-Est.
L'HPSI a augmenté de 5,2 points d'une année sur l'autre, avec des changements notables dans les attentes concernant les taux hypothécaires et les prévisions des prix des maisons. Cependant, des préoccupations concernant l'accessibilité au logement et l'offre persistent parmi les consommateurs.
Der Kauflauneindex von Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) für Wohnimmobilien stieg im August um 0,6 Punkte auf 72,1, was einen signifikanten Anstieg des Konsumentenoptimismus hinsichtlich zukünftiger Hypothekarzinsen zeigt. Ein Rekord von 39 % der Verbraucher erwartet, dass die Hypothekenzinsen in den nächsten 12 Monaten sinken, im Vergleich zu 29 % im Juli. Trotz dieser verbesserten Erschwinglichkeit glaubt nur 17 % der Verbraucher, dass jetzt ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, um ein Haus zu kaufen.
Die Umfrage offenbarte interessante regionale Unterschiede in der Wohnungsnachfrage, insbesondere zwischen dem Süden und dem Nordosten, was wahrscheinlich Unterschiede in der Wohnungsversorgung und der Bautätigkeit widerspiegelt. Während 65 % der Befragten insgesamt glauben, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, um ein Haus zu verkaufen, stimmen nur 56 % im Süden zu, verglichen mit 80 % im Nordosten.
Der HPSI ist im Jahresvergleich um 5,2 Punkte gestiegen, wobei signifikante Änderungen bei den Erwartungen an die Hypothekenzinsen und den Preisprognosen für Häuser zu verzeichnen sind. Dennoch bestehen Bedenken hinsichtlich der Erschwinglichkeit und Verfügbarkeit von Wohnraum unter den Verbrauchern.
- HPSI increased 0.6 points in August to 72.1, up 5.2 points year over year
- Survey-high 39% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline in the next 12 months
- 65% of respondents believe it's a good time to sell a home
- Only 17% of consumers believe it's a good time to buy a home
- Consumers remain apprehensive about housing market affordability and supply
- Percentage of respondents expecting home prices to go up decreased from 41% to 37%
Regional Divergence in Consumer Sentiment Likely a Function of New Supply
"Despite significantly greater optimism that mortgage rates and home prices will move in a more favorable direction for potential homebuyers, most consumers remain apprehensive about the housing market and continue to point to the lack of affordability and supply as the chief reasons for their pessimism," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. "On a national level, housing sentiment was largely unchanged in August despite some positive developments for affordability, including a meaningful decline in actual mortgage rates and an uptick in home listings in certain markets, particularly in the Sunbelt. However, our survey did capture some interesting regional variation likely related to supply: In August,
Palim continued: "This likely reflects in part the wide geographic variation in new home construction activity. In the regions that had a stronger construction response following the pandemic, our latest survey data suggest that sellers may be losing some of their negotiating power due to the increased supply. That said, we also know from previous research that some potential homebuyers may be feeling additional pressure to move for non-financial reasons. Our recent Mortgage Understanding Survey showed that one-in-four respondents is actively considering purchasing a home in the next three years, and declining mortgage rates are likely to improve listing availability by further diminishing the so-called 'lock-in effect.'"
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.6 points in August to 72.1. The HPSI is up 5.2 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home remained unchanged from last month (
17% ) while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from82% to83% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 1 percentage point month over month to -65% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (
65% ) and the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell (34% ) remained unchanged from last month. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell stayed at31% month over month. - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from
41% to37% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from21% to25% . The share who think home prices will stay the same remained at37% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 8 percentage points month over month to13% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from
29% to39% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from31% to26% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from38% to35% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 16 percentage points month over month to13% , the highest in survey history. - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from
77% to78% , while the percentage who say they are concerned stayed the same as last month (21% ). As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 1 percentage point month over month to57% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from
18% to17% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from11% to14% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from69% to68% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 4 percentage points month over month to3% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The August 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between August 1, 2024 and August 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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FAQ
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