Housing Sentiment Finishes 2024 Higher Despite December Dip
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.9 points to 73.1 in December 2024, yet remained 5.9 points higher than the previous year, primarily driven by mortgage rate optimism. 42% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline over the next 12 months, down from 45% in November but significantly higher than December 2023's 31%.
The percentage of respondents viewing it as a good time to buy a home slightly decreased from 23% to 22%, while those considering it a good time to sell declined from 64% to 63%. Home price expectations remained stable, with 38% expecting prices to increase. The survey also showed 77% of employed respondents were not concerned about job loss, down from 78%, while household income sentiment improved slightly.
Fannie Mae's Chief Economist suggests that despite current market challenges, improved affordability conditions are expected in 2025 through modest mortgage rate declines, slower home price growth, and higher wages.
L'Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) di Fannie Mae è diminuito di 1,9 punti, raggiungendo 73,1 a dicembre 2024, ma è rimasto 5,9 punti più alto rispetto all'anno precedente, principalmente grazie all'ottimismo sui tassi dei mutui. Il 42% dei consumatori prevede una diminuzione dei tassi dei mutui nei prossimi 12 mesi, in calo dal 45% di novembre, ma significativamente superiore al 31% di dicembre 2023.
La percentuale di rispondenti che ritiene sia un buon momento per acquistare una casa è leggermente diminuita dal 23% al 22%, mentre quelli che considerano opportuno vendere è scesa dal 64% al 63%. Le aspettative sui prezzi delle abitazioni sono rimaste stabili, con il 38% degli intervistati che si aspetta un aumento dei prezzi. L'indagine ha anche mostrato che il 77% dei rispondenti impiegati non era preoccupato per la perdita del lavoro, in calo dal 78%, mentre il sentiment rispetto al reddito familiare è migliorato leggermente.
Il Chief Economist di Fannie Mae suggerisce che, nonostante le attuali sfide del mercato, si prevede che nel 2025 ci saranno condizioni di maggiore accessibilità grazie a modesti cali dei tassi dei mutui, crescita più lenta dei prezzi delle abitazioni e salari più alti.
El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Vivienda (HPSI) de Fannie Mae disminuyó 1.9 puntos a 73.1 en diciembre de 2024, aunque permaneció 5.9 puntos por encima del año anterior, impulsado principalmente por el optimismo en las tasas hipotecarias. El 42% de los consumidores espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan en los próximos 12 meses, una bajada respecto al 45% de noviembre pero significativamente más alto que el 31% de diciembre de 2023.
El porcentaje de encuestados que considera que es un buen momento para comprar una casa disminuyó ligeramente del 23% al 22%, mientras que aquellos que piensan que es un buen momento para vender bajó del 64% al 63%. Las expectativas sobre los precios de las viviendas se mantuvieron estables, con un 38% esperando que los precios aumenten. La encuesta también mostró que el 77% de los encuestados empleados no estaba preocupado por la pérdida del empleo, una caída respecto al 78%, mientras que el sentimiento sobre los ingresos familiares mejoró levemente.
El Economista Jefe de Fannie Mae sugiere que, a pesar de los desafíos actuales del mercado, se prevé que las condiciones de asequibilidad mejoren en 2025 gracias a modestos descensos en las tasas hipotecarias, un crecimiento más lento de los precios de las viviendas y salarios más altos.
팬니 메이의 주택 구매 감정 지수 (HPSI)가 2024년 12월에 1.9 포인트 하락하여 73.1이 되었지만, 여전히 지난해보다 5.9 포인트 높은 상태를 유지하고 있으며, 주로 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 긍정적인 전망에 의해 주도되고 있습니다. 소비자의 42%가 향후 12개월 동안 주택담보대출 금리가 하락할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다, 이는 11월의 45%에서 감소했으나 2023년 12월의 31%보다는 상당히 높은 수치입니다.
주택을 구매하기 좋은 시점이라고 보는 응답자는 23%에서 22%로 약간 감소했으며, 판매하기 좋은 시점이라고 생각하는 사람도 64%에서 63%로 감소했습니다. 주택 가격에 대한 기대는 안정적이었으며, 38%가 가격 상승을 예상했습니다. 조사 결과 고용된 응답자의 77%가 실직에 대한 우려가 없다고 응답했으며, 이는 78%에서 감소한 수치이고, 가계 소득에 대한 감정은 약간 개선되었습니다.
팬니 메이의 수석 경제학자는 현재 시장의 도전에도 불구하고, 2025년에는 모기지 금리의 점진적인 하락, 주택 가격 상승 속도 감소 및 임금 상승을 통해 더 나은 주택 구매 여건이 예상된다고 제안했습니다.
L'Indice de Sentiment d'Achat de Maison (HPSI) de Fannie Mae a diminué de 1,9 point à 73,1 en décembre 2024, tout en restant 5,9 points au-dessus de l'année précédente, principalement grâce à l'optimisme concernant les taux hypothécaires. 42% des consommateurs s'attendent à une baisse des taux hypothécaires au cours des 12 prochains mois, en baisse par rapport à 45% en novembre mais significativement plus élevé que les 31% de décembre 2023.
Le pourcentage de répondants considérant que c'est un bon moment pour acheter une maison a légèrement diminué, passant de 23% à 22%, tandis que ceux qui estiment que c'est un bon moment pour vendre a également baissé, passant de 64% à 63%. Les attentes concernant les prix des maisons sont restées stables, avec 38% s'attendant à une augmentation des prix. L'enquête a également révélé que 77% des répondants employés n'étaient pas préoccupés par le risque de perte d'emploi, en baisse par rapport à 78%, tandis que le sentiment concernant le revenu des ménages s'est légèrement amélioré.
Le Chief Economist de Fannie Mae suggère que malgré les défis actuels du marché, les conditions d'accessibilité devraient s'améliorer en 2025 grâce à des baisses modérées des taux hypothécaires, à une croissance plus lente des prix de l'immobilier et à des salaires plus élevés.
Der Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) von Fannie Mae sank im Dezember 2024 um 1,9 Punkte auf 73,1, blieb jedoch 5,9 Punkte über dem Vorjahr, was hauptsächlich durch Optimismus bezüglich der Hypothekenzinsen bedingt ist. 42% der Verbraucher erwarten, dass die Hypothekenzinsen in den nächsten 12 Monaten sinken werden, ein Rückgang von 45% im November, aber deutlich höher als die 31% im Dezember 2023.
Der Prozentsatz der Befragten, die es für einen guten Zeitpunkt halten, ein Haus zu kaufen, sank leicht von 23% auf 22%, während die, die es für einen guten Zeitpunkt halten, zu verkaufen, von 64% auf 63% zurückging. Die Erwartungen an die Immobilienpreise blieben stabil, wobei 38% einen Anstieg der Preise erwarten. Die Umfrage zeigte auch, dass 77% der erwerbstätigen Befragten keine Sorgen über einen Jobverlust hatten, ein Rückgang von 78%, während die Stimmung bezüglich des Haushaltseinkommens leicht verbessert wurde.
Der Chefvolkswirt von Fannie Mae schlägt vor, dass trotz der aktuellen Herausforderungen auf dem Markt im Jahr 2025 mit verbesserten Erschwinglichkeitsbedingungen durch moderate Rückgänge der Hypothekenzinsen, langsameres Wachstum der Immobilienpreise und höhere Löhne gerechnet werden kann.
- HPSI up 5.9 points year-over-year
- 42% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline, up from 31% last year
- 38% expect home prices to increase
- 77% of employed respondents not concerned about job loss
- HPSI decreased 1.9 points month-over-month to 73.1
- Only 22% believe it's a good time to buy a home
- Net share of those saying it's a good time to buy decreased to -57%
- Percentage of those expecting mortgage rates to decline dropped from 45% to 42%
Mortgage Rate Optimism Primary Driver of Year-over-Year Improvement
"Even though the HPSI fell to end the year, consumer sentiment toward the housing market finished 2024 substantially above year-ago levels, attributable in part to respondents' ongoing expectations that mortgage rates will decline," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "However, just over one-in-five consumers believes it is a 'good time' to buy a home – although that share has risen over the last year, too, after reaching an all-time low of
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.9 points in December to 73.1. The HPSI is up 5.9 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from
23% to22% , while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from77% to78% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 3 percentage points month over month to negative57% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from
64% to63% , while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from35% to36% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 2 percentage points month over month to27% . - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained unchanged since last month at
38% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from25% to27% . The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from36% to35% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 1 percentage point month over month to11% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from
45% to42% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up remained unchanged since last month at25% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from29% to32% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 4 percentage points month over month to16% . - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from
78% to77% , while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from20% to22% . As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 4 percentage points month over month to54% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from
16% to17% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from12% to11% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from71% to70% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 1 percentage point month over month to6% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision-making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls a representative sample of adult household financial decision makers in
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The December 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between December 1, 2024, and December 13, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was fielded exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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