Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates
The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 1.8 points in September to 73.9, its highest level in over two years. A record 42% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline in the next 12 months, up from 39% in August. However, a plurality also anticipates home prices to increase, potentially offsetting affordability improvements.
Only 19% of respondents believe it's a good time to buy a home, while 65% think it's a good time to sell. The HPSI is up 9.4 points year-over-year. Notably, renter sentiment has improved, with 20% now believing it's a good time to buy, up from 13% three months ago.
The net share of those expecting home prices to rise increased 3 percentage points to 16%. The net share expecting mortgage rates to decrease rose 2 percentage points to 15%, a second consecutive survey high.
L'Home Purchase Sentiment Index® di Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) è aumentato di 1,8 punti a settembre, raggiungendo il valore di 73,9, il livello più alto in oltre due anni. Un record del 42% dei consumatori si aspetta un calo dei tassi mortgage nei prossimi 12 mesi, in aumento rispetto al 39% di agosto. Tuttavia, una pluralità prevede anche un aumento dei prezzi delle abitazioni, il che potrebbe compensare i miglioramenti in termini di affordabilità.
Solo il 19% degli intervistati ritiene che sia un buon momento per acquistare una casa, mentre il 65% pensa che sia un buon momento per vendere. L'HPSI è aumentato di 9,4 punti rispetto all'anno precedente. È interessante notare che il sentimento degli inquilini è migliorato, con il 20% che ora crede sia un buon momento per comprare, rispetto al 13% di tre mesi fa.
La quota netta di coloro che si aspettano un aumento dei prezzi delle case è aumentata di 3 punti percentuali, raggiungendo il 16%. La quota netta di chi si aspetta una diminuzione dei tassi mortgage è salita di 2 punti percentuali, raggiungendo il 15%, per la seconda volta consecutiva ai massimi del sondaggio.
El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Vivienda® de Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) aumentó 1.8 puntos en septiembre, alcanzando un nivel de 73.9, el más alto en más de dos años. Un récord del 42% de los consumidores espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan en los próximos 12 meses, un aumento desde el 39% en agosto. Sin embargo, una pluralidad también anticipa que los precios de las viviendas aumenten, lo que podría compensar las mejoras en la asequibilidad.
Solo el 19% de los encuestados cree que es un buen momento para comprar una casa, mientras que el 65% piensa que es un buen momento para vender. El HPSI ha aumentado 9.4 puntos en comparación con el año pasado. Es notable que el sentimiento de los inquilinos ha mejorado, con un 20% que ahora cree que es un buen momento para comprar, un aumento con respecto al 13% de hace tres meses.
La participación neta de quienes esperan que los precios de las casas suban aumentó 3 puntos porcentuales al 16%. La participación neta que espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan subió 2 puntos porcentuales al 15%, alcanzando un segundo máximo consecutivo en la encuesta.
패니 메이(Fannie Mae) 홈 구매 심리 지수(Home Purchase Sentiment Index®, OTCQB: FNMA)가 9월에 1.8 포인트 상승하여 73.9에 도달하며, 2년 만에 가장 높은 수준을 기록했습니다. 기록적인 42%의 소비자가 향후 12개월 내에 주택담보대출 금리가 하락할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이는 8월의 39%에서 증가한 수치입니다. 그러나 다수 또한 주택 가격이 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있어, 이는 가격 적정성 향상을 부분적으로 상쇄할 수 있습니다.
응답자의 19%만이 주택 구매가 좋은 시점이라고 생각하고 있으며, 65%는 주택 판매가 좋은 시점이라고 응답했습니다. HPSI는 전년 대비 9.4 포인트 상승했습니다. 특히 세입자들의 심리가 개선되어, 20%가 지금이 주택 구매의 좋은 시점이라고 생각하고 있으며, 이는 3개월 전의 13%에서 증가한 수치입니다.
주택 가격 상승을 예상하는 비율은 3%포인트 증가하여 16%에 이르렀습니다. 주택담보대출 금리 하락을 예상하는 비율은 2%포인트 상승하여 15%에 도달했으며, 이는 두 번째 연속 조사에서 최고치를 기록한 것입니다.
L'Indice de Sentiment d'Achat de Maison® de Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) a augmenté de 1,8 point en septembre pour atteindre 73,9, son niveau le plus élevé en plus de deux ans. Un record de 42% des consommateurs s'attendent à une baisse des taux hypothécaires au cours des 12 prochains mois, en hausse par rapport à 39% en août. Cependant, une pluralité anticipe également une augmentation des prix de l'immobilier, ce qui pourrait compenser les améliorations en matière d'accessibilité.
seulement 19% des répondants pensent que c'est un bon moment pour acheter une maison, tandis que 65% estiment que c'est un bon moment pour vendre. L'HPSI a augmenté de 9,4 points par rapport à l'année précédente. Notamment, le sentiment des locataires s'est amélioré, 20% croyant maintenant que c'est un bon moment pour acheter, contre 13% il y a trois mois.
La part nette de ceux qui s'attendent à une augmentation des prix de l'immobilier a augmenté de 3 points de pourcentage pour atteindre 16%. La part nette de ceux qui s'attendent à une baisse des taux hypothécaires a augmenté de 2 points de pourcentage pour atteindre 15%, second pic consécutif de l'enquête.
Der Home Purchase Sentiment Index® von Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) stieg im September um 1,8 Punkte auf 73,9, das höchste Niveau seit über zwei Jahren. Ein Rekord von 42% der Verbraucher erwartet, dass die Hypothekenzinsen in den nächsten 12 Monaten sinken, ein Anstieg von 39% im August. Eine Mehrheit erwartet jedoch auch, dass die Immobilienpreise steigen, was die Verbesserungen bei der Bezahlbarkeit möglicherweise aufheben könnte.
Nur 19% der Befragten glauben, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, eine Immobilie zu kaufen, während 65% denken, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, zu verkaufen. Der HPSI ist im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 9,4 Punkte gestiegen. Besonders bemerkenswert ist, dass sich die Stimmung unter Mietern verbessert hat, da nun 20% glauben, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, um zu kaufen, gegenüber 13% vor drei Monaten.
Der Nettoanteil derjenigen, die mit steigenden Immobilienpreisen rechnen, ist um 3 Prozentpunkte auf 16% gestiegen. Der Nettoanteil, der von fallenden Hypothekenzinsen ausgeht, stieg um 2 Prozentpunkte auf 15%, was den zweiten aufeinanderfolgenden Höchstwert der Umfrage darstellt.
- HPSI increased 1.8 points to 73.9, highest in over two years
- Record 42% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline
- Net share expecting home prices to rise increased 3 percentage points to 16%
- Renter sentiment improved, with 20% believing it's a good time to buy (up from 13%)
- HPSI is up 9.4 points year-over-year
- Only 19% of respondents believe it's a good time to buy a home
- Plurality of consumers expect home prices to increase, potentially offsetting affordability improvements
- Existing home sales are on pace to record their lowest annual total since 1995
Renter Sentiment Also Up, Including Share Expecting Rates to Fall
"Although most consumers continue to think it's a 'bad time' to buy a home, the recent shift in attitude toward mortgage rates is pushing overall housing sentiment higher, and a growing share are now pointing to high home prices rather than high mortgage rates as the primary sticking point for affordability," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Increased positivity that mortgage rates will continue to fall has driven the HPSI to a 30-month high, but we've yet to see consumers' newfound rate optimism translate into a meaningful increase in home sales activity. Instead, as we noted in our latest housing forecast, existing home sales are on pace to record their lowest annual total since 1995. This signals to us that consumers are paying attention to the easing interest rate environment but still feel stymied by the considerable run-up in home prices over the last four years."
Palim continued: "Notably, housing sentiment among renters, a common source of first-time homebuyers, has improved at approximately the same pace as homeowners. Over the last three months, the share of renters believing it's a good time to buy a home has risen from
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 1.8 points in September to 73.9. The HPSI is up 9.4 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 2 percentage points this month (
19% ) while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from83% to81% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 3 percentage points month over month to -62% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (
65% ) remained unchanged from last month, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell (35% ) increased 1 percentage point. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell fell 1 percentage point month over month to30% . - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from
37% to39% and the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from25% to23% . The share who think home prices will stay the same remained at37% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 3 percentage points month over month to16% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from
39% to42% , a new survey high. The percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from26% to27% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from35% to31% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 2 percentage points month over month to15% , a second consecutive survey high and the highest in NHS history. - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from
78% to77% , while the percentage who say they are concerned increased 1 percentage point (22% ). As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month to56% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from
17% to18% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from14% to11% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from68% to70% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 5 percentage points month over month to8% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The September 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between September 1, 2024 and September 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit: fanniemae.com | X (formerly Twitter) | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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