Frustration Evident in Consumer Housing Sentiment
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 1.1 points in July to 71.5, reflecting continued consumer frustration with housing market affordability. Only 17% of consumers believe it's a good time to buy a home, down from 19% in June. The share believing it's a good time to sell decreased from 66% to 65%. Expectations for home prices and mortgage rates remain mixed, with 41% expecting prices to rise and 29% expecting mortgage rates to decrease over the next 12 months.
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's Chief Economist, noted that while affordability may be improving in some areas, household incomes remain stretched relative to housing costs. The Mortgage Understanding Study reaffirmed that a majority of consumers want to own a home, but 82% currently believe it's a bad time to buy. Duncan also highlighted a trend of respondents increasingly preferring to rent rather than buy on their next move, which could have significant implications if it continues.
L'indice di sentiment degli acquisti di case di Fannie Mae (HPSI) è diminuito di 1,1 punti a luglio, scendendo a 71,5, riflettendo una continua frustrazione dei consumatori riguardo all'accessibilità del mercato abitativo. Solo il 17% dei consumatori ritiene che sia un buon momento per comprare una casa, in calo rispetto al 19% di giugno. La percentuale di chi crede sia un buon momento per vendere è diminuita dal 66% al 65%. Le aspettative sui prezzi delle case e sui tassi ipotecari rimangono contrastanti, con il 41% che prevede un aumento dei prezzi e il 29% che si aspetta una diminuzione dei tassi nel prossimo anno.
Doug Duncan, capo economista di Fannie Mae, ha osservato che sebbene l'accessibilità possa migliorare in alcune aree, i redditi delle famiglie rimangono sotto pressione rispetto ai costi abitativi. Lo studio sulla comprensione del mutuo ha confermato che la maggior parte dei consumatori desidera possedere una casa, ma l'82% attualmente crede che sia un cattivo momento per comprare. Duncan ha anche evidenziato una tendenza dei rispondenti a preferire sempre più l'affitto piuttosto che l'acquisto per il loro prossimo movimento, il che potrebbe avere significative implicazioni se questa tendenza continua.
El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Viviendas de Fannie Mae (HPSI) disminuyó 1.1 puntos en julio, alcanzando 71.5, lo que refleja la frustración continua de los consumidores con respecto a la asequibilidad del mercado de vivienda. Solo el 17% de los consumidores cree que es un buen momento para comprar una casa, por debajo del 19% en junio. La proporción que cree que es un buen momento para vender disminuyó del 66% al 65%. Las expectativas sobre los precios de las casas y las tasas hipotecarias siguen siendo mixtas, con un 41% que espera que los precios suban y un 29% que espera que las tasas hipotecarias bajen en los próximos 12 meses.
Doug Duncan, economista jefe de Fannie Mae, señaló que aunque la asequibilidad puede estar mejorando en algunas áreas, los ingresos de los hogares siguen siendo insuficientes en relación con los costos de vivienda. El Estudio de Comprensión de Hipotecas reafirmó que la mayoría de los consumidores desea ser propietario de una casa, pero el 82% actualmente cree que es un mal momento para comprar. Duncan también destacó una tendencia entre los encuestados de preferir alquilar en lugar de comprar en su próximo movimiento, lo cual podría tener implicaciones significativas si persiste.
Fannie Mae의 주택 구매 심리 지수(HPSI)는 7월에 1.1포인트 감소하여 71.5에 이르렀으며, 이는 주택 시장의 가격 부담에 대한 소비자들의 지속적인 불만을 반영합니다. 소비자의 17%만이 집을 사기에 좋은 시기라고 생각합니다, 이는 6월의 19%에서 감소한 수치입니다. 집을 팔기에 좋은 시기라고 생각하는 비율은 66%에서 65%로 감소했습니다. 주택 가격과 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 기대는 혼조세를 보이고 있습니다, 41%는 가격이 상승할 것으로 예상하고, 29%는 향후 12개월 내에 금리가 하락할 것이라고 예상하고 있습니다.
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae의 수석 경제학자는 일부 지역에서 가격 부담이 개선될 수 있지만, 가계 수입이 주택 비용에 비해 여전히 압박을 받고 있다고 언급했습니다. 주택 담보 대출 이해도 조사에 따르면 대다수의 소비자가 주택을 소유하고 싶어 하지만, 현재 82%는 집을 사기에 나쁜 시기라고 생각하고 있습니다. Duncan은 또한 응답자들이 다음 이동에서 구매하기보다는 임대를 선호하는 경향이 증가하고 있다고 강조했으며, 이것이 지속될 경우 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 경고했습니다.
L'indice de sentiment d'achat de maison de Fannie Mae (HPSI) a diminué de 1,1 point en juillet, atteignant 71,5, ce qui reflète la frustration continue des consommateurs concernant l'accessibilité du marché immobilier. Seules 17 % des consommateurs croient qu'il est bon d'acheter une maison, en baisse par rapport à 19 % en juin. La part de ceux qui estiment qu'il est bon de vendre est passée de 66 % à 65 %. Les attentes concernant les prix des maisons et les taux hypothécaires restent mitigées, avec 41 % s'attendant à une hausse des prix et 29 % s'attendant à une baisse des taux hypothécaires au cours des 12 prochains mois.
Doug Duncan, économiste en chef de Fannie Mae, a noté que bien que l'accessibilité puisse s'améliorer dans certaines régions, les revenus des ménages restent tendus par rapport aux coûts du logement. La recherche sur la compréhension des prêts hypothécaires a confirmé que la majorité des consommateurs souhaitent posséder une maison, mais 82 % croient actuellement qu'il est mauvais d'acheter. Duncan a également souligné une tendance parmi les répondants à préférer louer plutôt qu'acheter pour leur prochain déménagement, ce qui pourrait avoir des implications significatives si cela se poursuit.
Der Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) fiel im Juli um 1,1 Punkte auf 71,5 und spiegelt damit die anhaltende Frustration der Verbraucher über die Bezahlbarkeit des Wohnungsmarktes wider. Nur 17% der Verbraucher glauben, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, ein Haus zu kaufen, ein Rückgang von 19% im Juni. Der Anteil, der denkt, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist zu verkaufen, fiel von 66% auf 65%. Die Erwartungen an Hauspreise und Hypothekenzinsen sind gemischt, wobei 41% erwarten, dass die Preise steigen, und 29% erwarten, dass die Hypothekenzinsen in den nächsten 12 Monaten sinken werden.
Doug Duncan, Chefökonom von Fannie Mae, wies darauf hin, dass zwar die Bezahlbarkeit in einigen Regionen besser werden könnte, die Haushaltseinkommen jedoch im Verhältnis zu den Wohnkosten unter Druck stehen. Die Studie zum Verständnis von Hypotheken bestätigte, dass die Mehrheit der Verbraucher ein Haus besitzen möchte, doch 82% glauben derzeit, dass es ein schlechter Zeitpunkt zum Kaufen ist. Duncan hob auch einen Trend hervor, dass immer mehr Befragte beim nächsten Umzug lieber mieten als kaufen möchten, was erhebliche Auswirkungen haben könnte, wenn er anhält.
- HPSI is up 4.7 points year over year, indicating some improvement in overall sentiment
- 29% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decrease over the next 12 months, up from 24% in June
- The percentage of respondents reporting significantly higher household income increased from 16% to 18%
- HPSI decreased 1.1 points in July, reflecting ongoing affordability concerns
- Only 17% of consumers believe it's a good time to buy a home, down from 19% in June
- The share of respondents believing it's a good time to sell decreased from 66% to 65%
- The percentage of respondents concerned about losing their job increased from 20% to 21%
- The share of consumers preferring to rent rather than buy on their next move is trending upward
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"While we're seeing signs that affordability may be improving in certain parts of the country as supply slowly comes online, household incomes remain stretched relative to would-be mortgage or rent payments, and our latest survey once again reflects real consumer frustration with the housing market," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Our recently published Mortgage Understanding Study reaffirmed what we've long known: that a significant majority of consumers want to own a home. However,
Duncan continued: "We're currently forecasting home price growth to decelerate through next year and mortgage rates to average 6.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025 – and, like consumers, we continue to view affordability as the primary constraint to home sales activity. One data point we think bears monitoring: The share of respondents who say they would rent, rather than buy, on their next move has been trending slowly upward of late. Right now, it's difficult to tell if this reflects simple buyer fatigue or a greater sense of disenchantment with the market, but we think it could have important implications should the trend continue."
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.1 points in July to 71.5. The HPSI is up 4.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from
19% to17% , while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from81% to82% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 1 percentage point month over month. - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from
66% to65% , while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from33% to34% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 2 percentage points month over month. - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from
45% to41% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from17% to21% . The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from36% to37% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 7 percentage points month over month. - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from
24% to29% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from33% to31% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from42% to38% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 5 percentage points month over month. - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from
79% to77% , while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from20% to21% . As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 3 percentage points month over month. - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from
16% to18% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from10% to11% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from72% to69% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 1 percentage point month over month.
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The July 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between July 1, 2024 and July 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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