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Consumers Feeling Better About Housing Market Despite High Home Prices

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The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) rose 0.7 points to 74.6 in October 2024, reaching its highest level since February 2022. The share of consumers who believe it's a good time to buy a home increased to 20%, while those thinking it's a good time to sell declined to 64%. Despite improved overall housing sentiment, consumers remain concerned about high home prices. The survey shows a growing preference for renting over buying, with expectations of modest rent growth in 2025. Notably, 39% of respondents expect home prices to increase, while 39% anticipate mortgage rates to decrease in the next 12 months.

L'Indice di Sentiment sulla Compravendita di Fannie Mae® (HPSI) è aumentato di 0,7 punti, raggiungendo 74,6 a ottobre 2024, il livello più alto da febbraio 2022. La percentuale di consumatori che ritiene sia un buon momento per comprare casa è aumentata al 20%, mentre quelli che pensano sia un buon momento per vendere è diminuita al 64%. Nonostante un miglioramento generale del sentiment riguardo al mercato immobiliare, i consumatori rimangono preoccupati per i prezzi elevati delle case. L'indagine mostra una crescente preferenza per l'affitto rispetto all'acquisto, con aspettative di un modesto aumento degli affitti nel 2025. Da notare che 39% dei rispondenti si aspettano un aumento dei prezzi delle case, mentre 39% prevedono una diminuzione dei tassi dei mutui nei prossimi 12 mesi.

El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Vivienda de Fannie Mae® (HPSI) aumentó 0.7 puntos a 74.6 en octubre de 2024, alcanzando su nivel más alto desde febrero de 2022. La proporción de consumidores que creen que es un buen momento para comprar una casa aumentó al 20%, mientras que aquellos que piensan que es un buen momento para vender disminuyó al 64%. A pesar de la mejora en el sentimiento general sobre la vivienda, los consumidores siguen preocupados por los altos precios de las casas. La encuesta muestra una creciente preferencia por alquilar en lugar de comprar, con expectativas de un modesto aumento en los alquileres en 2025. Cabe destacar que 39% de los encuestados esperan que los precios de las casas aumenten, mientras que 39% anticipan que las tasas hipotecarias disminuirán en los próximos 12 meses.

Fannie Mae 주택 구매 감정 지수(HPSI)는 2024년 10월에 0.7포인트 상승하여 74.6에 도달했으며, 이는 2022년 2월 이후 가장 높은 수준입니다. 주택 구매에 좋은 시기라고 믿는 소비자의 비율은 20%로 증가했으며, 판매에 좋은 시기라고 생각하는 소비자는 64%로 감소했습니다. 전반적인 주택에 대한 감정 개선에도 불구하고 소비자들은 여전히 높은 주택 가격에 대한 우려를 가지고 있습니다. 설문 조사에 따르면 구매보다 임대를 선호하는 경향이 커지고 있으며, 2025년에는 임대료의 완만한 상승이 예상되고 있습니다. 특히 39%의 응답자가 주택 가격이 상승할 것으로 예상하고, 39%는 다음 12개월 동안 모기지 금리가 하락할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

L'Indice de Sentiment d'Achat de Maison de Fannie Mae® (HPSI) a augmenté de 0,7 point pour atteindre 74,6 en octobre 2024, atteignant son niveau le plus élevé depuis février 2022. La part des consommateurs qui estiment que c'est un bon moment pour acheter une maison a augmenté à 20%, tandis que ceux qui pensent que c'est un bon moment pour vendre a diminué à 64%. Malgré une amélioration générale du sentiment immobilier, les consommateurs restent préoccupés par les prix élevés des maisons. L'enquête révèle une préférence croissante pour la location plutôt que l'achat, avec des attentes d'une modeste augmentation des loyers en 2025. Il est à noter que 39% des répondants prévoient une augmentation des prix des maisons, tandis que 39% s'attendent à une diminution des taux d'intérêt hypothécaires dans les 12 prochains mois.

Der Fannie Mae Wohnkauf-Gefühlindex® (HPSI) stieg im Oktober 2024 um 0,7 Punkte auf 74,6 und erreichte damit den höchsten Stand seit Februar 2022. Der Anteil der Verbraucher, die glauben, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, ein Haus zu kaufen, stieg auf 20%, während der Anteil derjenigen, die denken, dass es ein guter Zeitpunkt ist, zu verkaufen, auf 64% sank. Trotz einer Verbesserung des allgemeinen Wohngefühls sind die Verbraucher weiterhin besorgt über die hohen Immobilienpreise. Die Umfrage zeigt eine wachsende Präferenz für Mieten statt Kaufen, mit Erwartungen an ein bescheidenes Mietwachstum im Jahr 2025. Bemerkenswert ist, dass 39% der Befragten erwarten, dass die Hauspreise steigen, während 39% erwarten, dass die Hypothekenzinsen in den nächsten 12 Monaten sinken werden.

Positive
  • HPSI increased 9.7 points year over year
  • Record high net share (16%) of consumers expecting mortgage rates to decrease
  • 79% of employed respondents not concerned about job loss
  • 64% believe it's a good time to sell homes
Negative
  • Only 20% believe it's a good time to buy a home
  • Growing consumer preference for renting over buying
  • 80% still consider it a bad time to buy homes
  • High home prices continue to strain buying conditions

HPSI Up Significantly from All-Time Low Recorded Two Years Ago

WASHINGTON, Nov. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 0.7 points in October to 74.6, pushing the measure of consumer confidence to its highest level since February 2022 and significantly higher than the all-time low recorded two years ago. In October, the share of consumers who think it's a good time to buy a home increased to 20%, while the share who think it's a good time to sell a home declined to 64%. On net, consumers continue to expect home prices to rise and mortgage rates to fall, with the latter component hitting another survey high this month. The personal finance components also remained fairly flat month over month, with fewer consumers expressing job loss concerns and slightly more indicating that their household income fell year over year. The full index is up 9.7 points year over year.

"While we have seen significant improvement in overall housing sentiment over the past two years, consumers' perception of homebuying conditions remains strained, with only 20% believing it a 'good time' to buy a home, primarily due to high home prices," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "In fact, the share citing mortgage rates as the primary driver of their homebuying pessimism declined again this month; however, since the fielding of the survey primarily in the first half of October, mortgage rates moved sharply higher, which may serve to suppress some of the recently observed rate optimism. One effect of the prolonged period of relatively high home prices of the past four years is that we are seeing a slowly growing preference to rent rather than buy on consumers' next move. With rent growth expected to remain modest in 2025, more consumers may be seeking – and finding – attractive deals in the rental market as they continue saving toward a future home purchase."

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.7 points in October to 74.6. The HPSI is up 9.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

  • Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 1 percentage point this month to 20%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 81% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 2 percentage points month over month to -60%.
  • Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (64%) decreased 1 percentage point this month, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell (35%) remained unchanged month over month. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell fell 1 percentage point month over month to 29%.
  • Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained unchanged at 39%, and the percentage who say home prices will go down also stayed steady at 23%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased 1 percentage point to 38%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 1 percentage point month over month to 17%.
  • Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 42% to 39%. The percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up also decreased from 27% to 22%, a new survey low. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 31% to 38%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 1 percentage point month over month to 16%, a third consecutive survey high and the highest in survey history.
  • Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 77% to 79%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased 2 percentage points to 20%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month to 58%.
  • Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged, on a rounded basis, at 18%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower also remained unchanged, on a rounded basis, at 11%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same remained unchanged at 70%. The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 2 percentage points month over month to 6%.

About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision-making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.

About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of the United States to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, purchase and rental prices, household finances, and overall confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions, making the NHS one of the most detailed longitudinal surveys of its kind to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes.

Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The October 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between October 1, 2024 and October 18, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of Chicago's probability-based panel, in coordination with Fannie Mae and PSB Insights. Calculations are made using unrounded and weighted respondent-level data to help ensure precision in NHS results from wave to wave. As a result, minor differences in calculated data (summarized results, net calculations, etc.) of up to 1 percentage point may occur due to rounding.

Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.

About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
fanniemae.com | X (formerly Twitter) | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog

Fannie Mae Newsroom
https://www.fanniemae.com/news

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Fannie Mae Resource Center
1-800-2FANNIE

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

 

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SOURCE Fannie Mae

FAQ

What was Fannie Mae's (FNMA) HPSI score in October 2024?

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reached 74.6 points in October 2024, increasing by 0.7 points from the previous month.

What percentage of consumers think it's a good time to buy a home in October 2024 according to FNMA?

According to Fannie Mae's survey, 20% of consumers believe it's a good time to buy a home in October 2024.

What are consumers' expectations for mortgage rates according to FNMA's October 2024 survey?

39% of respondents expect mortgage rates to decrease in the next 12 months, while 22% expect rates to increase, and 38% believe rates will stay the same.

How much has Fannie Mae's (FNMA) HPSI increased year over year as of October 2024?

The HPSI has increased 9.7 points compared to the same time last year.

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