Consumer Housing Sentiment Up Significantly Year over Year
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) rose 0.4 points to 75.0 in November, marking a 10.7-point increase year over year. A record number of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline over the next 12 months, with 45% anticipating a decrease. The share of respondents viewing it as a 'good time to buy' increased to 23%, up from 14% last year.
The percentage saying it's a 'good time to sell' remained stable at 64%. Home price expectations showed slight changes, with 38% expecting prices to rise and 25% anticipating decreases. Consumer confidence appears to be improving as people adapt to the current high mortgage rate and home price environment, though these factors remain the primary concerns for potential buyers.
Nel mese di novembre, il Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) è aumentato di 0,4 punti, raggiungendo 75,0, segnando un aumento di 10,7 punti rispetto all'anno precedente. Un numero record di consumatori si aspetta che i tassi di interesse sui mutui diminuiscano nei prossimi 12 mesi, con il 45% che prevede una diminuzione. La percentuale di rispondenti che considera questo un 'buon momento per comprare' è aumentata al 23%, rispetto al 14% dell'anno scorso.
La percentuale di chi afferma che è un 'buon momento per vendere' è rimasta stabile al 64%. Le aspettative sui prezzi delle case hanno mostrato lievi cambiamenti, con il 38% che prevede un aumento dei prezzi e il 25% che anticipa un calo. La fiducia dei consumatori sembra stia migliorando poiché le persone si adattano all'attuale ambiente di alti tassi di mutuo e prezzi delle case, sebbene questi fattori rimangano le principali preoccupazioni per i potenziali acquirenti.
En noviembre, el Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) aumentó 0.4 puntos, alcanzando 75.0, lo que representa un aumento de 10.7 puntos en comparación con el año pasado. Un número récord de consumidores espera que las tasas hipotecarias disminuyan en los próximos 12 meses, con un 45% anticipando una baja. La proporción de los encuestados que considera que es un 'buen momento para comprar' aumentó al 23%, frente al 14% del año anterior.
El porcentaje de quienes dicen que es un 'buen momento para vender' se mantuvo estable en 64%. Las expectativas sobre los precios de las viviendas mostraron ligeros cambios, con un 38% esperando que los precios suban y un 25% anticipando descensos. La confianza del consumidor parece estar mejorando a medida que las personas se adaptan al actual entorno de altos tipos de interés hipotecarios y precios de viviendas, aunque estos factores siguen siendo las principales preocupaciones para los compradores potenciales.
11월에 Fannie Mae 주택 구매 심리 지수(HPSI)는 0.4포인트 상승하여 75.0에 도달했으며, 이는 지난해 대비 10.7포인트 상승한 수치입니다. 역대 최대 수의 소비자들이 향후 12개월간 모기지 금리가 하락할 것이라고 예상하며, 45%가 감소할 것이라고 전망하고 있습니다. '지금이 살 좋은 시기'라고 생각하는 응답자의 비율은 23%로 증가했으며, 이는 지난해의 14%에서 상승한 것입니다.
'파는 데 좋은 시기'라고 말한 비율은 64%로 안정적으로 유지되었습니다. 주택 가격에 대한 기대는 약간의 변화를 보였으며, 38%는 가격이 상승할 것이라고 예상하고, 25%는 가격이 하락할 것이라고 예상하고 있습니다. 소비자 신뢰는 사람들이 현재의 높은 모기지 금리와 주택 가격에 적응함에 따라 개선되고 있는 것으로 보이나, 이러한 요소는 여전히 잠재 구매자들에게 주요한 우려 사항으로 남아 있습니다.
En novembre, l'indice de sentiment concernant l'achat de logements de Fannie Mae (HPSI) a augmenté de 0,4 point pour atteindre 75,0, marquant une augmentation de 10,7 points par rapport à l'année précédente. Un nombre record de consommateurs s'attend à ce que les taux d'intérêt des hypothèques diminuent au cours des 12 prochains mois, avec 45 % prévoyant une baisse. La part des répondants considérant que c'est un 'bon moment pour acheter' a augmenté à 23%, contre 14% l'année dernière.
Le pourcentage de ceux qui estiment que c'est un 'bon moment pour vendre' est resté stable à 64%. Les attentes concernant les prix des logements ont montré de légers changements, 38 % s'attendant à une hausse des prix et 25 % prévoyant une baisse. La confiance des consommateurs semble s'améliorer alors que les gens s'adaptent à l'environnement actuel des taux hypothécaires élevés et des prix des logements, bien que ces facteurs restent les principales préoccupations des acheteurs potentiels.
Im November stieg der Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) um 0,4 Punkte auf 75,0, was einem 10,7 Punkte Anstieg im Vergleich zum Vorjahr entspricht. Eine Rekordzahl von Verbrauchern erwartet, dass die Hypothekenzinsen sinken werden, wobei 45 % einen Rückgang antizipieren. Der Anteil der Befragten, die es für einen 'guten Zeitpunkt zum Kauf' halten, stieg auf 23%, gegenüber 14 % im letzten Jahr.
Der Anteil derjenigen, die sagen, dass jetzt ein 'guter Zeitpunkt zum Verkaufen' sei, blieb stabil bei 64%. Die Preisvorstellungen für Wohnimmobilien zeigten geringfügige Veränderungen, wobei 38 % einen Anstieg der Preise erwarten und 25 % mit einem Rückgang rechnen. Das Vertrauen der Verbraucher scheint sich zu verbessern, da die Menschen sich an die derzeit hohen Hypothekenzinsen und Wohnimmobilienpreise anpassen, obwohl diese Faktoren nach wie vor die Hauptsorge potenzieller Käufer bleiben.
- HPSI increased 10.7 points year-over-year, showing improved market sentiment
- Record-high 45% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decline
- Good time to buy sentiment increased to 23% from 14% last year
- 64% of respondents maintain it's a good time to sell
- 78% of employed respondents are not concerned about job loss
- 77% still believe it's a bad time to buy a home
- Home price expectations declined, with net positive sentiment dropping 5 percentage points
- Household income sentiment decreased, with only 16% reporting significantly higher income
Jump in Confidence Driven Largely by Increased Optimism that Mortgage Rates Will Fall
"Over the past year, we have seen a significant improvement in general consumer sentiment toward the housing market, largely driven by increased optimism that mortgage rates will fall and improved perceptions of both homebuying and home-selling conditions," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Notably, this improvement in sentiment continues a trend that began about two and a half years ago following the sizeable run-up in home prices during the pandemic, and it is likely due in part to consumers' slow-but-steady acclimation to current market conditions. Of course, high home prices and high mortgage rates remain the primary reasons why the vast majority of consumers think it's a 'bad time to buy' — trends that we expect to continue into the new year."
Palim continued: "Fortunately, a sharply growing share of consumers say they expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year. Additionally, more consumers expect home price growth to slow, a belief recently shared by our expert panelists, as well, which may help ease some of the affordability burden and incentivize some households, especially those who have been waiting in the wings, to finally act on their home purchase decision."
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.4 points in November to 75.0. The HPSI is up 10.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from
20% to23% , while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from80% to77% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 6 percentage points month over month to negative54% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at
64% , while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell also remained unchanged at35% . As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell remained unchanged month over month at29% . - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from
39% to38% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from23% to25% . The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from38% to36% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 5 percentage points month over month to12% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from
39% to45% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from22% to25% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from38% to29% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 4 percentage points month over month to20% . - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from
79% to78% , while the percentage who say they are concerned remained unchanged at20% . As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job remained unchanged month over month at58% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from
18% to16% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from11% to12% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from70% to71% . As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point month over month to5% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision-making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls a representative sample of adult household financial decision makers in
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The November 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between November 1, 2024, and November 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was fielded exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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