Freddie Mac Multifamily’s 2024 Midyear Outlook Forecasts Low Rent Growth Amid High-Supply Headwinds
Freddie Mac's (OTCQB: FMCC) 2024 Midyear Outlook forecasts muted multifamily performance for the remainder of the year due to historically high supply of new units. Despite strong demand, the outlook predicts below-average rent growth of 2.7% and a modest increase in vacancy rates to 6% through 2024. The report highlights an overall shortage of housing, an expensive for-sale market, and favorable demographic trends as factors priming the multifamily market for long-term growth.
The outlook projects gross rental income growth of 2.5% for 2024, favoring secondary and tertiary markets in the southern plains and Sun Belt regions. Freddie Mac Multifamily predicts transaction volume could rebound to about $320 billion if market conditions stabilize during the second half of the year. The report notes that elevated interest rates and increasing cap rates are putting downward pressure on property prices.
Le previsioni di metà anno 2024 di Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) prevedono una performance moderata del multifamiliare per il resto dell'anno a causa della fornitura storicamente alta di nuove unità. Nonostante la forte domanda, le previsioni indicano una crescita degli affitti sotto la media del 2,7% e un modesto aumento dei tassi di vacanza al 6% fino al 2024. Il rapporto sottolinea una carenza complessiva di abitazioni, un mercato per la vendita costoso e tendenze demografiche favorevoli come fattori che preparano il mercato multifamiliare per una crescita a lungo termine.
Le previsioni stimano un aumento del reddito da affitto del 2,5% per il 2024, favorendo i mercati secondari e terziari nelle pianure meridionali e nelle regioni del Sun Belt. Freddie Mac Multifamily prevede che il volume delle transazioni potrebbe riprendersi fino a circa 320 miliardi di dollari se le condizioni di mercato si stabilizzano nella seconda metà dell'anno. Il rapporto nota che tassi di interesse elevati e l'aumento dei tassi di capitalizzazione stanno esercitando una pressione al ribasso sui prezzi delle proprietà.
Las proyecciones de mitad de año 2024 de Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) pronostican un desempeño moderado del multifamiliar para el resto del año debido a la históricamente alta oferta de nuevas unidades. A pesar de la fuerte demanda, se prevé un crecimiento del alquiler por debajo de la media, del 2,7% y un ligero aumento en las tasas de vacantes al 6% hasta 2024. El informe destaca una escasez general de vivienda, un mercado para la venta caro y tendencias demográficas favorables como factores que preparan al mercado multifamiliar para un crecimiento a largo plazo.
Las proyecciones indican un crecimiento de los ingresos brutos por alquiler del 2,5% para 2024, favoreciendo a los mercados secundarios y terciarios en las llanuras del sur y las regiones del Sun Belt. Freddie Mac Multifamily predice que el volumen de transacciones podría recuperarse a alrededor de 320 mil millones de dólares si las condiciones del mercado se estabilizan durante la segunda mitad del año. El informe señala que las elevadas tasas de interés y el aumento de las tasas de capitalización están presionando a la baja los precios de las propiedades.
프레디 맥(OTCQB: FMCC)의 2024년 중간 전망은 다세대 주택 시장의 부진한 성과를 예측하고 있습니다. 이는 역사적으로 높은 신규 유닛 공급 때문입니다. 강한 수요에도 불구하고, 전망은 평균 이하의 임대료 성장률 2.7%과 2024년까지 공실률이 6%로 완만하게 증가할 것이라고 예측합니다. 보고서는 주택 부족, 비싼 판매 시장, 유리한 인구 통계학적 추세 등을 다세대 주택 시장의 장기 성장을 위한 요인으로 강조합니다.
전망은 2024년 총 임대 수입 성장률이 2.5%로 나타나며, 남부 평야와 선벨트 지역의 이차 및 삼차 시장이 유리할 것이라고 합니다. 프레디 맥 다세대 주택은 시장 조건이 안정되면 거래량이 약 3200억 달러로 반등할 수 있다고 예측하고 있습니다. 보고서는 높은 금리와 증가하는 자본화율이 부동산 가격에 하향 압력을 가하고 있다고 언급합니다.
Les prévisions de mi-année 2024 de Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) annoncent une performance atténuée du secteur multifamilial pour le reste de l'année en raison d'une offre historiquement élevée de nouvelles unités. Malgré une forte demande, les perspectives prévoient une croissance des loyers inférieure à la moyenne de 2,7% et une légère augmentation des taux de vacance à 6% d'ici 2024. Le rapport souligne une pénurie globale de logements, un marché à vendre coûteux et des tendances démographiques favorables comme des facteurs préparant le marché multifamilial à une croissance à long terme.
Les prévisions projetent une croissance des revenus locatifs bruts de 2,5% pour 2024, favorisant les marchés secondaires et tertiaires dans les plaines du sud et les régions du Sun Belt. Freddie Mac Multifamily prévoit que le volume des transactions pourrait rebondir à environ 320 milliards de dollars si les conditions du marché se stabilisent au cours de la seconde moitié de l'année. Le rapport note que des taux d'intérêt élevés et une augmentation des taux de capitalisation exercent une pression à la baisse sur les prix des biens immobiliers.
Die Halbjahresprognose 2024 von Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) sagt eine gedämpfte Leistung im Bereich Mehrfamilienhäuser für den Rest des Jahres voraus, bedingt durch ein historisch hohes Angebot an neuen Einheiten. Trotz einer starken Nachfrage wird ein unterdurchschnittliches Mietwachstum von 2,7% und ein moderater Anstieg der Leerstandsquote auf 6% bis 2024 vorausgesagt. Der Bericht hebt einen allgemeinen Wohnungsmangel, einen teuren Verkaufsmarkt und günstige demografische Trends als Faktoren hervor, die den Mehrfamilienmarkt für langfristiges Wachstum vorbereiten.
Die Prognose projiziert ein Bruttomietwachstum von 2,5% für 2024 und begünstigt sekundäre und tertiäre Märkte in den Südpflanzen und im Sun Belt. Freddie Mac Multifamily erwartet, dass das Transaktionsvolumen auf etwa 320 Milliarden Dollar zurückgehen könnte, wenn sich die Marktbedingungen in der zweiten Jahreshälfte stabilisieren. Der Bericht weist darauf hin, dass hohe Zinssätze und steigende Kapitalisierungsraten auf die Immobilienpreise drücken.
- Strong overall economic performance driving multifamily demand
- Long-term growth potential due to housing shortage and expensive for-sale market
- Projected gross rental income growth of 2.5% for 2024
- Potential rebound in transaction volume to $320 billion if market conditions stabilize
- Muted multifamily performance expected for the remainder of 2024
- Below-average rent growth forecast at 2.7%
- Vacancy rate expected to increase to 6%
- Elevated interest rates and increasing cap rates putting downward pressure on property prices
MCLEAN, Va., July 23, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Freddie Mac’s (OTCQB: FMCC) newly released 2024 Midyear Outlook forecasts multifamily performance to remain muted for the remainder of the year as the market works through a historically high supply of new units. The Midyear Outlook notes strong demand but forecasts below-average rent growth and a modest increase in vacancy rates through 2024.
The Midyear Outlook notes the economy is performing well overall, propelling multifamily demand, but a continuing supply and demand imbalance is contributing to slow rent growth. Over the past year, most metro areas, along with the nation, have seen the pace of rent growth slow from the year prior. The markets with the greatest rent declines are pandemic boom markets where rents increased rapidly in 2021-2022 and a high level of supply followed.
“Although new supply is at a nearly 40-year high, that headwind will be short lived, and is typically located in areas with high demand,” said Sara Hoffmann, senior director of Multifamily Research at Freddie Mac. “That will cause multifamily performance to remain subdued this year, but over the longer term, the multifamily market appears primed for growth due to an overall shortage of housing, an expensive for-sale housing market and favorable demographic tailwinds.”
For 2024, the Midyear Outlook predicts rent growth of
The Midyear Outlook notes that interest rates remain elevated and cap rates have steadily increased, putting downward pressure on property prices and leading to a cap rate spread that is less than half the long-run average. Freddie Mac Multifamily predicts transaction volume in the multifamily market could rebound modestly from 2023 to about
Multifamily’s Midyear Outlook and additional related materials are available online here.
Freddie Mac Multifamily is the nation's multifamily housing finance leader. Historically, more than
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