Embraer's New 10-Year Market Outlook Identifies Trends Influencing the Industry
Embraer's 2020 Commercial Market Outlook highlights significant shifts in global air travel demand due to the pandemic, forecasting a return to 2019 passenger traffic levels by 2024 but 19% lower than previous estimates. Key trends include a shift to smaller aircraft, regionalization, changing passenger behaviors favoring shorter flights, and an emphasis on environmentally efficient aircraft. The report anticipates 4,420 new jet deliveries, primarily in North America and Asia Pacific, along with 1,080 turboprop deliveries, reshaping the commercial aviation landscape.
- 4,420 new jets up to 150 seats projected for delivery by 2029.
- 75% of new jet deliveries will replace aging aircraft, enhancing fleet efficiency.
- Asia Pacific expected to lead in RPK growth at 3.4% annually.
- 1,080 turboprop deliveries anticipated, primarily in China and Europe.
- Projected global passenger traffic recovery is 19% lower than previous forecasts.
- Short-term aviation demand impact due to the pandemic could affect long-term market dynamics.
SÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS, Brazil, Dec. 2, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Embraer's newly published 2020 Commercial Market Outlook examines passenger demand for air travel and new aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years with special emphasis on Embraer's product segment - aircraft up to 150 seats. The report identifies emerging trends that will influence growth, factors shaping future airline fleets, and the regions of the world that will lead demand in the commercial sector.
The global pandemic is causing fundamental changes that are reshaping air travel patterns and demand for new aircraft. There are four main drivers:
- Fleet Rightsizing - a shift to smaller-capacity, more versatile aircraft to match weaker demand.
- Regionalization - companies seeking to protect their supply chains from external shocks will bring businesses closer, generating new traffic flows.
- Passenger Behavior - preference for shorter-haul flights and decentralization of offices from large urban centers will require more diverse air networks.
- Environment - renewed focus on more efficient, greener aircraft types.
"The short-term impact of the global pandemic has long-term implications for new aircraft demand," said Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation. "Our forecast reflects some of the trends we're already seeing - the early retirement of older and less efficient aircraft, a preference for more profitable smaller airplanes to match weaker demand, and the growing importance of domestic and regional airline networks in the restoration of air service. Aircraft with up to 150 seats will be instrumental in how quickly our industry recovers."
Selected highlights:
Traffic Growth
- Global passenger traffic (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres - RPKs) will return to 2019 levels by 2024, yet remain
19% below Embraer's previous forecast through the decade, to 2029. - RPKs in Asia Pacific will grow the fastest (
3.4% annually).
Jet Deliveries
- 4,420 new jets up to 150 seats will be delivered through 2029.
75% of deliveries will replace ageing aircraft,25% representing market growth.- The majority will be to airlines in North America (1,520 units) and Asia Pacific (1,220).
Turboprop Deliveries
- 1,080 new turboprops will be delivered through 2029.
- The majority will be to airlines in China/Asia Pacific (490 units) and Europe (190).
For more details, including regional synopses for North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, China and Asia/Pacific, and the CIS, download the 2020 Market Outlook at www.embraermarketoutlook2020.com
Follow us on Twitter: @Embraer
About Embraer
A global aerospace company headquartered in Brazil, Embraer has businesses in Commercial and Executive aviation, Defense & Security and Agricultural Aviation. The company designs, develops, manufactures and markets aircraft and systems, providing Services & Support to customers after-sales.
Since it was founded in 1969, Embraer has delivered more than 8,000 aircraft. On average, about every 10 seconds an aircraft manufactured by Embraer takes off somewhere in the world, transporting over 145 million passengers a year.
Embraer is the leading manufacturer of commercial jets up to 150 seats and the main exporter of high value-added goods in Brazil. The company maintains industrial units, offices, service and parts distribution centers, among other activities, across the Americas, Africa, Asia and Europe.
PRESS OFFICES:
Headquarters (Brazil)
Corporate Communications
embraer@idealhks.com
Cell: +55 11 98890 7777
Tel.: +55 11 4873 7984
North America
Alyssa Ten Eyck
ayeck@embraer.com
Cell: +1 954 383 0460
Tel.: +1 954 359 3847
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Guy Douglas
guy.douglas@nl.embraer.com
Cell: +31 (0)657120121
Tell: +31 (0)202158109
China
Mirage Zhong
mirage.zhong@bjs.embraer.com
Cell: +86 185 1378 5180
Tel.: +86 10 6598 9988
Asia Pacific
Nilma Missir-Boissac
nilma.boissac@sin.embraer.com
Cell: +65 9012 8428
Tel.: +65 6305 9955
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SOURCE Embraer S.A.
FAQ
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