Embraer Publishes 20-Year Market Outlook
Embraer has released its Market Outlook 2024, forecasting demand for 10,500 new sub-150-seat jets and turboprops through 2043, valued at USD 640 billion. The report highlights the increasing relevance of small narrowbody aircraft in complementing larger jets for medium and lower-density markets. North America is expected to lead jet deliveries, followed by Asia Pacific and Europe.
Key points include:
- Global passenger traffic (RPKs) forecast to grow 4% annually through 2043
- 8,470 jet and 2,030 turboprop deliveries expected
- Asia Pacific projected to have the highest RPK growth rate at 5.0%
- Emphasis on mixed fleets of small and large narrowbodies for optimal network service
- New opportunities identified for small-narrowbody freighters in e-commerce growth
Embraer ha pubblicato il suo Market Outlook 2024, prevedendo una domanda di 10.500 nuovi aerei a reazione e turboelica sotto i 150 posti fino al 2043, valutata 640 miliardi di USD. Il rapporto sottolinea la crescente importanza degli aerei narrowbody di piccole dimensioni nel completare i jet più grandi per mercati di media e bassa densità. Si prevede che il Nord America guiderà le consegne di jet, seguito dall'Asia-Pacifico e dall'Europa.
I punti chiave includono:
- Previsione di crescita del traffico passeggeri globale (RPK) del 4% annuo fino al 2043
- Previste 8.470 consegne di jet e 2.030 di turboeliche
- L'Asia-Pacifico proiettata ad avere il tasso di crescita RPK più alto al 5,0%
- Enfasi su flotte miste di aerei narrowbody piccoli e grandi per un servizio di rete ottimale
- Nuove opportunità identificate per cargo di aerei narrowbody piccoli nella crescita dell'e-commerce
Embraer ha publicado su Market Outlook 2024, pronosticando la demanda de 10,500 nuevos jets y turbohélices de menos de 150 asientos hasta 2043, valorados en 640 mil millones de USD. El informe destaca la creciente relevancia de las aeronaves narrowbody pequeñas en la complementación de jets más grandes para mercados de densidad media y baja. Se espera que América del Norte lidere las entregas de jets, seguida de Asia-Pacífico y Europa.
Los puntos clave incluyen:
- Se pronostica que el tráfico de pasajeros global (RPK) crecerá un 4% anualmente hasta 2043
- Se esperan 8,470 entregas de jets y 2,030 de turbohélices
- Se proyecta que Asia-Pacífico tendrá la tasa de crecimiento de RPK más alta, del 5.0%
- Enfoque en flotas mixtas de narrowbodies pequeños y grandes para un servicio de red óptimo
- Nuevas oportunidades identificadas para cargueros de narrowbody pequeños en el crecimiento del comercio electrónico
엠브라에르(Embraer)는 2024 시장 전망(Market Outlook 2024)을 발표하며 2043년까지 150석 이하의 새로운 제트기와 터보프롭 10,500대에 대한 수요를 6400억 달러로 평가했습니다. 이 보고서는 중간 및 낮은 밀도의 시장에서 더 큰 제트기를 보완하는 소형 협폭 항공기의 중요성이 커지고 있음을 강조합니다. 북미 지역이 제트기 납품을 선도할 것으로 예상됩니다, 아시아 태평양 지역과 유럽이 그 뒤를 따릅니다.
주요 내용은 다음과 같습니다:
- 전 세계 승객 교통량(RPK)이 2043년까지 연평균 4% 성장할 것으로 예상
- 8,470대의 제트기와 2,030대의 터보프롭 납품이 예상됨
- 아시아 태평양 지역이 5.0%의 가장 높은 RPK 성장률을 기록할 것으로 예상됨
- 최적의 네트워크 서비스를 위한 소형 및 대형 협폭 항공기의 혼합 플릿 강조
- 전자 상거래 성장에 따른 소형 협폭 화물기에 대한 새로운 기회 발견
Embraer a publié son Market Outlook 2024, prévoyant une demande de 10 500 nouveaux jets et turbopropulseurs de moins de 150 sièges d'ici 2043, évaluée à 640 milliards USD. Le rapport souligne l'importance croissante des aéronefs étroits de petite taille dans la complémentarité des avions plus grands pour les marchés de densité moyenne et faible. On s'attend à ce que l'Amérique du Nord dirige les livraisons de jets, suivie de la région Asie-Pacifique et de l'Europe.
Les points clés incluent :
- Prévision d'une croissance annuelle de 4 % du trafic passager mondial (RPK) jusqu'en 2043
- 8 470 livraisons de jets et 2 030 de turbopropulseurs prévues
- La région Asie-Pacifique devrait avoir le taux de croissance RPK le plus élevé, à 5,0 %
- Accent sur les flottes mixtes de petits et grands avions étroits pour un service de réseau optimal
- Nouvelles opportunités identifiées pour les freighters étroits de petite taille grâce à la croissance du commerce électronique
Embraer hat seinen Marktausblick 2024 veröffentlicht und prognostiziert eine Nachfrage nach 10.500 neuen Flugzeugen und Turboprops mit weniger als 150 Sitzen bis 2043, bewertet auf 640 Milliarden USD. Der Bericht hebt die zunehmende Bedeutung kleiner Narrowbody-Flugzeuge hervor, die größere Jets in mittel- und niederdichten Märkten ergänzen. Nordamerika wird voraussichtlich die Jet-Lieferungen anführen, gefolgt von dem asiatisch-pazifischen Raum und Europa.
Wichtige Punkte sind:
- Globaler Passagierverkehr (RPK) wird voraussichtlich bis 2043 jährlich um 4% wachsen
- 8.470 Jet- und 2.030 Turboprop-Lieferungen werden erwartet
- Der asiatisch-pazifische Raum wird voraussichtlich die höchste RPK-Wachstumsrate von 5,0% haben
- Betonung auf gemischten Flotten kleiner und großer Narrowbodies für optimalen Netzwerkservice
- Neue Chancen für kleine Narrowbody-Frachtflugzeuge im Wachstum des E-Commerce identifiziert
- Forecast of 10,500 new aircraft orders worth USD 640 billion through 2043
- Increasing relevance of small narrowbody aircraft in the sub-150-seat category
- Global passenger traffic (RPKs) expected to grow 4% annually through 2043
- New opportunities for small-narrowbody freighters due to e-commerce growth
- None.
Insights
The 20-year market outlook presented by Embraer provides essential data for long-term investors. A projected demand for 10,500 sub-150-seat aircraft valued at
Embraer’s market outlook reflects a critical shift in airline fleet strategies post-pandemic. The rising importance of sub-150-seat jets for medium and lower-density markets highlights a niche that Embraer is well-positioned to capitalize on. This market segment's profitability, flexibility and operational efficiency make it attractive for airlines balancing capacity and connectivity. The anticipated mix of small and large narrowbodies in fleets aligns with current trends in air travel demand and regional connectivity needs. Retail investors should understand that Embraer’s strategic focus on this market segment could yield competitive advantages and sustainable growth, especially given the forecasted growth in regions like Asia Pacific and Latin America.
The data presented in Embraer's 20-year market outlook is a robust indicator for the company's future in the aviation industry. The projection of significant demand for small narrowbody aircraft through 2043 underscores the strategic importance of these aircraft in addressing diverse air travel markets. The growth in e-commerce and the associated demand for cargo aircraft further reinforces the flexibility of smaller jets. For investors, this translates to potential resilience and adaptability of Embraer's business model in an evolving landscape. The regional delivery forecasts also provide insights into which markets Embraer could prioritize, thus shaping their regional sales and support strategies.
- Worldwide demand for 10,500 sub-150-seat jets and turboprops
- Value of new orders
USD 640 billion North America , followed byAsia Pacific andEurope will lead jet deliveries
FARNBOROUGH,
Market Outlook 2024 estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2043. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in six world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft.
The relevance of the small narrowbody category is increasing. Larger aircraft are not always economically or operationally optimal for medium and lower-density markets, particularly when multiple daily frequencies are essential for those cities to stay well-connected. Fleets with these aircraft benefit when complemented by smaller narrowbodies in the sub-150-seat segment. Small narrowbodies go where bigger jets cannot, do so more frequently, and usually more profitably. As the average aircraft size in key world regions increases, a reflection of the strong orderbook for 200-seat narrowbodies, it becomes clear that a mixed fleet of small and large narrowbodies is the best way to serve the diverse characteristics of an airline network.
Arjan Meijer, Embraer's President & CEO of Commercial Aviation, said, "A mix fleet of sub-150-seat jets and larger narrowbodies will be the successful fleet strategy for the next 20 years. The post-pandemic environment is different in so many ways. The business/leisure passenger mix is different. Demand patterns are different. The corporate workplace is different. And e-commerce is booming. Carriers are adding capacity in big markets, yet smaller cities still need to stay well-connected to airline networks with high frequency air service. We believe aircraft in the sub-150-seat category are the most efficient and cost-effective to address that need."
The Market Outlook also contains analysis of the cargo aircraft market and cites new opportunities for small-narrowbody freighters resulting from the projected growth in online commerce.
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers
World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, has returned to 2019 levels except for the
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked |
RPK share by the end of 2043 |
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats 10,500 units |
Market value of all new aircraft |
Jet deliveries - 8,470 (% share) – by region 2,610 |
Turboprop deliveries - 2,030 (% share) – by region 980 |
Download the complete Embraer 2024 Market Outlook at www.embraercommercialaviation.com/marketoutlook
About Embraer
A global aerospace company headquartered in
Since it was founded in 1969, Embraer has delivered more than 9,000 aircraft. On average, about every 10 seconds an aircraft manufactured by Embraer takes off somewhere in the world, transporting over 145 million passengers a year.
Embraer is the leading manufacturer of commercial jets with up to 150 seats and the main exporter of high value-added goods in
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SOURCE Embraer S.A.
FAQ
What is Embraer's forecast for sub-150-seat aircraft demand through 2043?
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