Producer sentiment slips due to rising policy uncertainty
Farmer sentiment declined in March as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points to 140, down from 152. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index fell 5 points to 132.
The Farm Capital Investment Index decreased 5 points to 54, while the Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 8 points to 102. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained steady at 118.
Key concerns include declining crop prices, trade uncertainty, and farm policy. Export expectations reached a record low, with 30% of producers anticipating a decline. Trade policy has become a primary concern, with 43% of respondents citing it as the most critical issue, up from 21% before the November 2024 election.
Regarding future support, 65% of farmers believe a program similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program is likely, while 74% consider passing a new farm bill this year important.
Il sentimento degli agricoltori è diminuito a marzo, con il Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer che è sceso di 12 punti a 140, rispetto ai 152 precedenti. L'Indice delle Aspettative Future è calato di 15 punti a 144, mentre l'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali è sceso di 5 punti a 132.
L'Indice di Investimento Capitale Agricolo è diminuito di 5 punti a 54, mentre l'Indice delle Performance Finanziarie Agricole è sceso di 8 punti a 102. L'Indice delle Aspettative sul Valore delle Terre Agricole a Breve Termine è rimasto stabile a 118.
Le principali preoccupazioni includono il calo dei prezzi delle colture, l'incertezza commerciale e le politiche agricole. Le aspettative per le esportazioni hanno raggiunto un livello record, con il 30% dei produttori che prevede un calo. La politica commerciale è diventata una preoccupazione primaria, con il 43% degli intervistati che la cita come il problema più critico, rispetto al 21% prima delle elezioni di novembre 2024.
Per quanto riguarda il supporto futuro, il 65% degli agricoltori crede che un programma simile al Programma di Facilitazione del Mercato del 2019 sia probabile, mentre il 74% considera importante l'approvazione di una nuova legge agricola quest'anno.
El sentimiento de los agricultores disminuyó en marzo, ya que el Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer cayó 12 puntos a 140, desde 152. El Índice de Expectativas Futuras bajó 15 puntos a 144, mientras que el Índice de Condiciones Actuales cayó 5 puntos a 132.
El Índice de Inversión de Capital Agrícola disminuyó 5 puntos a 54, mientras que el Índice de Rendimiento Financiero Agrícola cayó 8 puntos a 102. El Índice de Expectativas de Valor de Tierras Agrícolas a Corto Plazo se mantuvo estable en 118.
Las preocupaciones clave incluyen la caída de los precios de los cultivos, la incertidumbre comercial y la política agrícola. Las expectativas de exportación alcanzaron un mínimo histórico, con el 30% de los productores anticipando una disminución. La política comercial se ha convertido en una preocupación principal, con el 43% de los encuestados citándola como el problema más crítico, un aumento respecto al 21% antes de las elecciones de noviembre de 2024.
En cuanto al apoyo futuro, el 65% de los agricultores cree que un programa similar al Programa de Facilitación del Mercado de 2019 es probable, mientras que el 74% considera importante aprobar una nueva ley agrícola este año.
농부들의 감정은 3월에 감소했으며, Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer가 152에서 140으로 12포인트 하락했습니다. 미래 기대 지수는 15포인트 하락하여 144가 되었고, 현재 상황 지수는 5포인트 하락하여 132가 되었습니다.
농장 자본 투자 지수는 5포인트 하락하여 54가 되었고, 농장 재무 성과 지수는 8포인트 하락하여 102가 되었습니다. 단기 농지 가치 기대 지수는 118로 변동이 없었습니다.
주요 우려 사항으로는 작물 가격 하락, 무역 불확실성 및 농업 정책이 있습니다. 수출 기대치는 사상 최저에 도달했으며, 30%의 생산자가 감소를 예상하고 있습니다. 무역 정책은 주요 우려 사항이 되었으며, 응답자의 43%가 이를 가장 중요한 문제로 언급했으며, 이는 2024년 11월 선거 전의 21%에서 증가한 수치입니다.
미래 지원에 관해서는, 65%의 농부들이 2019년 시장 촉진 프로그램과 유사한 프로그램이 있을 것이라고 믿고 있으며, 74%는 올해 새로운 농법 제정이 중요하다고 생각합니다.
Le sentiment des agriculteurs a diminué en mars, le Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer ayant chuté de 12 points à 140, contre 152. L'Indice des Attentes Futures a baissé de 15 points à 144, tandis que l'Indice des Conditions Actuelles a chuté de 5 points à 132.
L'Indice d'Investissement en Capital Agricole a diminué de 5 points à 54, tandis que l'Indice de Performance Financière Agricole a baissé de 8 points à 102. L'Indice des Attentes de Valeur des Terres Agricoles à Court Terme est resté stable à 118.
Les principales préoccupations incluent la baisse des prix des cultures, l'incertitude commerciale et la politique agricole. Les attentes d'exportation ont atteint un niveau historiquement bas, avec 30 % des producteurs anticipant une baisse. La politique commerciale est devenue une préoccupation majeure, 43 % des répondants la citant comme le problème le plus critique, contre 21 % avant les élections de novembre 2024.
En ce qui concerne le soutien futur, 65 % des agriculteurs estiment qu'un programme similaire au Programme de Facilitation du Marché de 2019 est probable, tandis que 74 % considèrent qu'il est important d'adopter une nouvelle loi agricole cette année.
Die Stimmung der Landwirte ist im März gesunken, da der Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer um 12 Punkte auf 140 fiel, von 152. Der Index der Zukunftserwartungen sank um 15 Punkte auf 144, während der Index der aktuellen Bedingungen um 5 Punkte auf 132 fiel.
Der Investitionsindex für landwirtschaftliches Kapital sank um 5 Punkte auf 54, während der Index für die finanzielle Leistung der Landwirtschaft um 8 Punkte auf 102 fiel. Der Index für die kurzfristigen Erwartungen an den Wert von Ackerland blieb stabil bei 118.
Wichtige Bedenken sind sinkende Erzeugerpreise, Handelsunsicherheit und Agrarpolitik. Die Exporterwartungen erreichten einen Rekordtiefstand, wobei 30 % der Produzenten einen Rückgang erwarten. Die Handelspolitik ist zu einem Hauptanliegen geworden, da 43 % der Befragten sie als das kritischste Problem anführen, im Vergleich zu 21 % vor den Wahlen im November 2024.
Was die zukünftige Unterstützung betrifft, glauben 65 % der Landwirte, dass ein Programm ähnlich dem Marktanpassungsprogramm von 2019 wahrscheinlich ist, während 74 % die Verabschiedung eines neuen Agrargesetzes in diesem Jahr für wichtig halten.
- Farm Financial Performance Index remains above 100, indicating expected improvement in farm performance
- Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index stable at 118, suggesting steady or modest increases in land values
- Farm Capital Investment Index at second-highest reading since June 2021 despite recent decline
- Ag Economy Barometer declined 12 points to 140, showing weakening sentiment
- Future Expectations Index dropped 15 points, indicating growing uncertainty
- Export expectations hit record low with 30% anticipating decline
- Sharp increase in trade policy concerns (43% vs 21%) suggesting potential market risks
Insights
The 12-point drop in the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reflects growing uncertainty in agricultural markets that could impact CME Group's trading volumes. While concerning, the reading of 140 remains in positive territory, suggesting moderation rather than collapse in sentiment.
What's particularly significant is the widening gap between farmers' current conditions and future expectations, with the 15-point decline in future expectations highlighting growing concerns about trade policy. This uncertainty typically drives hedging behavior, potentially benefiting CME in the near-term through increased futures contract trading as farmers and agricultural businesses seek to manage price risk.
The record-low export optimism, with nearly as many farmers expecting export declines (30%) as increases (33%), signals potential volatility in agricultural commodity markets. Most telling is the dramatic post-election shift in farmers' policy concerns, with 43% now citing trade policy as their primary concern compared to just 21% before the election.
The expectation of government intervention (with 65% of respondents anticipating a Market Facilitation Program) further complicates price discovery mechanisms. For CME Group, this environment of uncertainty creates a mixed outlook - potentially higher trading activity due to hedging needs in the short-term, but risks of reduced agricultural production and trading volumes if negative sentiment persists long-term.
The March sentiment decline reveals important structural concerns in the agricultural economy beyond the headline numbers. Despite the 12-point drop in the overall barometer, several underlying indicators suggest farmers remain conditionally optimistic while hedging against policy uncertainty.
The Farm Capital Investment Index, while declining 5 points, remains at its second-highest level since June 2021, indicating continued willingness to invest in operational improvements. Similarly, the Farm Financial Performance Index at 102 suggests farmers still anticipate year-over-year financial improvement, albeit with tempered expectations.
Most concerning is the deteriorating outlook for agricultural exports, historically a crucial demand driver for U.S. agricultural production. The record low export optimism reflects structural concerns about global market access rather than cyclical price movements. This explains why 74% of farmers consider a new farm bill either "important" or "very important" this year.
The stable Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index at 118 indicates farmers continue to view land as a sound investment despite policy uncertainties, suggesting underlying confidence in agriculture's long-term fundamentals. This balanced picture shows an industry managing increased uncertainty while maintaining operational confidence - a nuanced outlook that will impact agricultural futures markets and related financial instruments.
Alongside the weakened sentiment, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 5 points to 54 in March. Despite the dip, it is the second-highest reading since June 2021. The Farm Financial Performance Index also saw a drop, decreasing 8 points to 102. While slightly above 100, the index indicates that, on average, producers still anticipate their farm's financial performance to improve compared to a year ago.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained steady at 118 in March, matching the previous month's level and only 6 points below its reading from a year ago. Except for the late summer and early fall of 2024, when sentiment was more pessimistic, the index has generally ranged between 110 and 126 since early 2023. This suggests that farmers maintain a cautious outlook for farmland values, anticipating they will either remain stable or increase modestly in the coming year.
"While the overall sentiment shift in March reflects growing uncertainty, farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the future, particularly with farmland values holding steady and the outlook for strong returns in the livestock sector helping to offset weaker expectations among crop producers," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Since 2019, the barometer surveys have asked producers about their expectations for
In addition to worries about exports, farmers' focus on agricultural policy has shifted over the past year. Since late 2022, barometer surveys have regularly asked producers to identify the most important policies or programs for their farms in the next five years. Before the November 2024 election, farmers reported a higher focus on interest rate policy than trade policy. However, since the election, trade policy has become a fast-growing concern, with
Uncertainties about trade policy and its potential impact on
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.
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About Purdue University
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SOURCE CME Group
FAQ
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