Comerica Bank's Texas Index Improved Again

Rhea-AI Summary

Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index rose to 123.8 in November, representing a 30% increase from its historical low of 95.5. This marks the fifth consecutive month of improvement, driven by rising oil prices. Eight out of nine sub-indexes showed growth, with notable gains in nonfarm employment and state trade. However, hotel occupancy declined, impacted by the pandemic. By December, Texas experienced a net gain of 64,200 payroll jobs compared to a net loss of 140,000 for the entire U.S., although Texas recorded a 7.2% unemployment rate, slightly higher than the national average.

Positive

• Texas Economic Activity Index increased to 123.8 in November, showing recovery.
• Eight out of nine sub-indexes improved, indicating robust economic activity.
• Texas gained 64,200 payroll jobs in December, outperforming U.S. job trends.

Negative

• Hotel occupancy remains low due to pandemic effects.
• Texas unemployment rate is 7.2%, higher than the U.S. average of 6.7%.

DALLAS, Jan. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in November to 123.8. November's index reading was 30 percent above the index historical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.7 points for all of 2019, 4.4 points above the average for 2018. October's index reading was 121.1.

Our Texas Economic Activity Index improved for the fifth consecutive month in November, as oil prices increased. Eight out of nine sub-indexes were up for the month, including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, drilling rig count, total state trade and state sales tax revenue. The only declining sub-index was hotel occupancy, which has been subdued since last March. Labor market conditions are a key feature of state economies. Texas continues to outperform the U.S. At the end of 2020, total nonfarm employment in Texas was down 3.3 percent from a year earlier, reflecting the drag from the coronavirus pandemic, while the U.S. as a whole was down 6.2 percent. Moreover, Texas showed a strong net gain of 64,200 payroll jobs in December, while the U.S. posted a net loss of 140,000. Texas still posted a slightly higher unemployment rate at year end than the U.S average, 7.2 percent for Texas compared with 6.7 percent for the U.S. Tightening global commodity prices works in favor of the Texas economy, supporting the drilling rig count and all manner of oil field production and servicing activity. An ongoing risk for Texas is the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on both domestic and international air travel, as two major airlines are headquartered in North Texas. The emergence of new strains of the coronavirus is already leading to restrictions in international travel.

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $88 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020.

To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.

 

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SOURCE Comerica Bank

FAQ

What did Comerica's Texas Economic Activity Index reach in November 2020?

It reached 123.8 in November 2020.

How does the Texas Economic Activity Index compare to 2019?

The November index was 30% above the historical low of 95.5.

What were the job trends in Texas as of December 2020?

Texas had a net gain of 64,200 payroll jobs, while the U.S. had a net loss of 140,000.

What is the current unemployment rate in Texas?

The unemployment rate in Texas was 7.2% at the end of 2020.

How many sub-indexes improved in the Texas Economic Activity Index?

Eight out of nine sub-indexes improved in November.