Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Recovering
Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index rose to 95.1 in July, marking an 8-point increase or 10% from its cyclical low. This growth indicates a recovery, with eight out of nine sub-indexes showing positive contributions, notably in nonfarm payrolls, housing starts, and total state trade. However, the economic outlook is cautious due to a rise in coronavirus cases in September, which poses risks for the state's economy and auto sales. The index averaged 117.7 in 2019, indicating ongoing economic challenges.
- July Michigan Economic Activity Index increased to 95.1, indicating a recovery.
- Eight out of nine sub-indexes were positive, with strong contributions from nonfarm payrolls and housing starts.
- The state faced a rise in coronavirus cases in September, posing risks to economic recovery.
- Light vehicle sales remain below the August 2019 peak of 18.7 million units.
DALLAS, Oct. 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in July to a level of 95.1. July's reading was 8 points or 10 percent higher than the cyclical low. The index averaged 117.7 points for all of 2019, 0.9 points below the index average for 2018. June's index reading was revised to 86.7.
Our state economic activity indexes all showed a rebound in economic activity in July. The rebound is dampened somewhat because of the smoothing process that we use to reduce the volatility inherent in some regional economic data. We expect to see an ongoing strong rebound in the August state economic activity indexes. In July, eight out of nine sub-indexes were positive for Michigan. This was the strongest performance since last February when all nine components showed gains. The positive contributors for July were nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, total state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. Only the house price sub-index was negative for the month. Michigan, along with many other states, saw an uptick in coronavirus cases in September. This represents a significant downside risk factor for the state economy this fall and winter. Increasing cases in other states also represents a risk factor for Michigan to the extent that they are a weight on auto sales. Light vehicle sales were stable in July and August, near a 15.0 million unit rate, well below the peak 18.7 million unit sales rate from August 2019. California has just announced that they will ban sales of new gasoline powered cars in 2035. This will add to the push toward electrification of the industry, which will result in a significant reduction in the amount of labor needed per vehicle assembly.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
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FAQ
What was the Michigan Economic Activity Index for July 2020?
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