Comerica Bank's California Index Moves Up
The California Economic Activity Index from Comerica Bank rose to 105.9 in February 2021, reflecting a 14% increase from the historical low of 92.7 in June 2020. The index outperformed January's revised reading of 105.3. Significant improvements were noted in six of the nine index components, including housing starts and state revenues. The index's methodology was updated to align better with state GDP, introducing new sub-indexes for enplanements and state revenues while removing the Dow Jones Technology Index. Rising consumer confidence and fiscal stimulus are expected to bolster the economy further.
- California Economic Activity Index increased to 105.9, 14% above historical low.
- Six out of nine index components showed positive growth.
- Updated methodology aligns better with state-level GDP.
- Industrial electricity demand and enplanements contracted in February.
DALLAS, April 28, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased in February to a level of 105.9. February's reading is 14 percent above the historical low of 92.7 set in June 2020. The index averaged 107.8 points in 2020, 18.9 points below the average for all of 2019. January's index reading was revised to 105.3.
This month we are rolling out our new methodology for our state economic activity indexes. We have made some adjustments to the sub-components and to their weights in order to better align with state-level GDP. We added two new sub-indexes for tracking enplanements and state revenues in California. We removed the Dow Jones Technology Index. Also, we have rebased the sub-components of our indexes to average 100 for 2012. The headline index may be above 100 for 2012 due to the weighting scheme. Our new California Economic Activity Index improved in February. Six of the nine index components were positive for the month including unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, state total trade, hotel occupancy and state revenues. Industrial electricity demand and enplanements contracted in February. The nonfarm employment sub-index was unchanged. The state economy improved as most counties moved to orange tier COVID restrictions. This allowed for some indoor business to operate with modifications. We expect to see an even broader reopening of the state economy as more counties move to the yellow tier this summer. Rising consumer confidence and additional fiscal stimulus to households from the America Rescue Plan and Golden State Stimulus bills will support stronger consumer spending. Combined, this will drive a robust recovery in the hard-hit services sector this year.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
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FAQ
What is the California Economic Activity Index for February 2021?
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