Cities could be MORE important post-pandemic, not less, suggests report from Citi and University of Oxford
The report Citi GPS Technology at Work: The Coming of the Post-Production Society by Citi and the Oxford Martin School highlights a shift in work dynamics post-pandemic.
It predicts increased in-person work, emphasizing jobs that demand creativity and collaboration. While remote work peaked at 66% during April 2020, it is expected that 20% will remain post-pandemic, potentially boosting productivity by 5% in the short term.
However, the study warns of declining innovation due to isolation, urging policymakers to invest in new middle-income jobs and fostering environments conducive to creativity.
- Expected 5% increase in productivity due to reduced commuting time.
- Emphasis on the importance of innovation and collaboration in future job roles.
- Insightful policy recommendations aimed at creating new middle-income jobs.
- Decline in creativity and innovation due to increased remote work.
- Increased vulnerability for female employment in the shifting job market.
- Subdivision of professional services into automatable or offshorable tasks.
Paradoxically, more in-person work environments and the concentration of jobs in cities could be a medium- to long-term impact of the pandemic’s shift to remote working, suggests Citi GPS Technology at Work: The Coming of the Post-Production Society, a report produced by Citi and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford.
The report cites the automation of manufacturing and clerical tasks alongside the potential for professional services jobs that can be done remotely to be done cheaper overseas as the start of a foundational shift in developed economies. The future of work in these countries, it suggests, could be based largely on innovation, exploration and creative thinking which require face-to-face interaction and geographic proximity.
“Jobs that can be done remotely can often also be automated and offshored, meaning that occupations that centre on the kind of sporadic interactions that drive innovation will become an ever-growing share of the workforce in advanced economies,” says report author Dr Carl Benedikt Frey, director of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Work at the University of Oxford.
At the peak of the pandemic in April 2020, almost two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S. was being done remote. And while the post-pandemic world will see much lower levels of remote work, a recent survey suggests that
However, creativity and innovation diminish when people work in isolation, meaning that progress and productivity will eventually stall. In addition, the shift towards remote work is accelerating the subdivision of many professional service jobs into tasks that are more automatable, like clerical or accounting work, or offshorable, like payroll management and IT support.
“Both the employment support during the pandemic and the current recovery are impressive but the world changed last year and the shift to digitisation and remote work, which we find includes more vulnerability for female employment, needs to be thought through by policy-makers, employers, employees, educators and investors,” says Rob Garlick, Managing Director, Citi Global Insights, adding that “The time to do so is now, given supply chain re-engineering could include onshoring while the step change in remote work will increasingly include in-country versus offshore decisions.”
This vision of the future should not be taken to imply that all manufacturing and white-collar service jobs will inevitably vanish in places like the US and Europe, says Dr Carl Benedikt Frey in the report. Adding that “We want to highlight the direction of travel so that governments and organisations can work on creating the jobs of the future and developing the employment skills those jobs will need.”
The report suggests that these new roles will predominately be in knowledge industries, like technology, science or consulting. The roles themselves will be focussed on innovation and development, like designing new technology products or service algorithms which are then manufactured or administered in middle-income countries. These sorts of roles rely on the creativity of in-person collaboration, unplanned meetings, and informal socialising as much as they do hard work. The study highlights that during the prohibition against alcohol in 1920 America, the disruption to people’s social networks caused patenting to drop by up to
“Cities are going to be more important as hubs of the collaboration and innovation at the foundation of developed economies,” continues Frey. “Walkable streets, bars, restaurants and cafes facilitate serendipitous meetings and help us identify problems that need solutions. Every new ‘knowledge industry’ job in a city also creates demand for five new service jobs that can’t be offshored or automated like teachers, healthcare workers and cleaners.
“Livable cities brimming with culture and experiences will continue to be the engine of economic growth and job creation for a long time to come.”
Finally, restoring the middle class, which has felt the pressure from automation and offshoring for some time now, can only be achieved by creating new middle-income jobs. “Policies, like the minimum wage, can help make existing jobs less bad. What is needed is investment in innovation to create the future of work. Most of today’s jobs did not even exist in the 1950s,” says Frey. To that end, the report makes several policy recommendations for how to boost innovation.
Citi GPS Technology at Work: The Coming of the Post-Production Society is the sixth edition in the Citi GPS Technology at Work series. To access the full report please go to: www.citi.com/citigps.
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Notes to Editors
About Citigroup
Citi is one of the world's largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary global conversation - accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice for our clients.
About Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions (Citi GPS)
As our premier thought-leadership product, Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions (Citi GPS) is designed to help our clients navigate the global economy's most demanding challenges, identify future themes and trends, and help our clients profit in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of our research analysts and a wide range of senior professionals across our firm.
About the Oxford Martin School
The Oxford Martin School is a world-leading research department of the University of Oxford. Its 200 academics work across more than 30 pioneering research programmes to find solutions to the world's most urgent challenges. It supports novel and high-risk projects that often do not fit within conventional funding channels, with the belief that breaking boundaries and fostering innovative collaborations can dramatically improve the wellbeing of this and future generations. Underpinning all our research is the need to translate academic excellence into impact – from innovations in science, medicine and technology, through to providing expert advice and policy recommendations.
Web: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk - Twitter: @oxmartinschool - Facebook: /oxfordmartinschool
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