Black Knight's First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record Low in March, While Prepayments Rose on Easing Rates and Seasonal Tailwinds

Rhea-AI Summary

Black Knight reported significant improvements in mortgage performance metrics for March 2023. The national delinquency rate dropped 53 basis points (-15%) to a record low of 2.92%, marking the second-largest decline in 17 years. The total number of past-due mortgages is at its lowest level since April 2000. Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) decreased by 51,000, with every state experiencing improved rates. Foreclosure starts increased by 9.0%, but remain below pre-pandemic levels. The prepayment rate rose to 0.50%, up 44% month-over-month, driven by lower rates. The report indicates a steady decline in delinquency and foreclosure metrics, providing a positive outlook for the mortgage market.

Positive

• National delinquency rate fell to 2.92%, a record low and a decline of 15% month-over-month.
• Total past-due mortgages at the lowest level in nearly 23 years.
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days) declined by 51,000, lowest since March 2020.
• Every state reported a decrease in overall delinquencies, with improvements ranging up to 21.5%.
• Prepayment rate increased to 0.50%, up 44% month-over-month.

Negative

• Foreclosure starts increased by 9.0%, indicating a slight rise in new foreclosures.
• Overall foreclosure sales rose 4.6% but still below pre-pandemic levels.

• The national delinquency rate dropped 53 basis points (-15%) in March, falling below 3% for the first time on record, ending the month at just 2.92%
• While delinquency rates almost always fall in March – as borrowers utilize tax refunds and other seasonal revenues to pay down past-due debt – the drop marked the second largest decline in the past 17 years
• Factoring in March's decline, the total number of past-due mortgages (including active foreclosures) has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 23 years, dating all the way back to April 2000
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) showed marked improvement, falling by 51K to their lowest level since March 2020, with volumes shrinking in every state
• Likewise, every state saw overall delinquencies fall in March, with improvements ranging from 11.9% in Washington to 21.5% in Vermont
• Both foreclosure starts (+9.0%) and sales (+4.6%) rose in the month but still remain well below pre-pandemic volumes at the national level
• Active foreclosure inventory held steady, but remains 31K (12%) below March 2020 levels
• The prepayment rate (SMM) rose to 0.50% (+44% month over month) driven, as anticipated, by seasonal tailwinds in sale-related prepayments and an increased demand for refis due to falling rates

JACKSONVILLE, Fla., April 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) reports the following "first look" at March 2023 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 2.92%
Month-over-month change: -15.23%
Year-over-year change: -13.23%

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.46%
Month-over-month change: -0.21%
Year-over-year change: 13.24%

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 32,000
Month-over-month change: 9.03%
Year-over-year change: -5.69%

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.50%
Month-over-month change: 44.42%
Year-over-year change: -61.41%

Foreclosure sales: 7,500
Month-over-month change: 4.59%
Year-over-year change: 24.64%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,539,000
Month-over-month change: -272,000
Year-over-year change: -209,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 511,000
Month-over-month change: -51,000
Year-over-year change: -331,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 240,000
Month-over-month change: 0
Year-over-year change: 31,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 1,779,000
Month-over-month change: -272,000
Year-over-year change: -178,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

Mississippi:	7.05 %
Louisiana:	6.61 %
Alabama:	5.13 %
West Virginia:	4.55 %
Pennsylvania:	4.53 %

Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

California:	2.03 %
Montana:	1.95 %
Idaho:	1.86 %
Washington:	1.83 %
Colorado:	1.80 %

Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage

Mississippi:	2.36 %
Louisiana:	1.98 %
Alabama:	1.62 %
Arkansas:	1.43 %
Georgia:	1.30 %

Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage

Alaska:	-28.18 %
Vermont:	-24.48 %
Connecticut:	-21.67 %
New Jersey:	-18.90 %
New York:	-18.77 %

Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage

Idaho:	-0.60 %
South Dakota:	-0.93 %
Florida:	-4.01 %
Michigan:	-4.66 %
Utah:	-5.17 %

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:

1. Totals are extrapolated based on Black Knight's loan-level database of mortgage assets.
2. All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.

For a more detailed view of this month's "first look" data, please visit the Black Knight newsroom. The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/ by May 1, 2023. For more information about gaining access to Black Knight's loan-level database, please send an email to Mortgage.Monitor@bkfs.com.

About Black Knight

Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage lending and servicing and real estate industries, as well as the capital and secondary markets. Businesses leverage our robust, integrated solutions across the entire homeownership life cycle to help retain existing customers, gain new customers, mitigate risk and operate more effectively.

Our clients rely on our proven, comprehensive, scalable products and our unwavering commitment to delivering superior client support to achieve their strategic goals and better serve their customers. For more information on Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com.

For more information:
Michelle Kersch	Mitch Cohen
904.854.5043	704.890.8158
michelle.kersch@bkfs.com	mitch.cohen@bkfs.com

 

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SOURCE Black Knight, Inc.

FAQ

What was the delinquency rate reported by Black Knight for March 2023?

Black Knight reported a delinquency rate of 2.92% for March 2023.

How much did the national delinquency rate decrease in March 2023?

The national delinquency rate decreased by 53 basis points, or 15%, in March 2023.

What are serious delinquencies and how did they change in March 2023?

Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) decreased by 51,000 in March 2023.

What was the prepayment rate reported for March 2023 by Black Knight?

The prepayment rate rose to 0.50%, a 44% increase month-over-month.

What trends were observed in foreclosure starts for March 2023?

Foreclosure starts increased by 9.0% in March 2023, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels.