Black Knight: June Sees Record-Setting Slowdown in Home Price Growth, Largest Monthly Inventory Gain in 12 Years; Prices Back Off Highs in Some Major Markets
Black Knight's latest Mortgage Monitor Report reveals a record-setting slowdown in home price growth, dropping from 19.3% to 17.3% year-over-year in June, the largest monthly deceleration since the 1970s. This aligns with a 22% increase in homes listed for sale, although inventory remains 54% below pre-pandemic levels. Significant localized slowdowns are noted, particularly in markets like San Jose (-5.1%), Seattle (-3.8%), and San Francisco (-2.8%). The report indicates that current trends in inventory and sales may continue, impacting home prices and market dynamics.
- 22% increase in homes listed for sale over the past two months.
- Some metro areas, like San Francisco, have returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels.
- Annual home price growth dropped from 19.3% to 17.3%, the largest single-month decline on record.
- Inventory remains 54% below 2017-2019 levels, indicating a significant national shortage of listings.
- Home prices in major markets like San Jose and Seattle are pulling back from recent highs.
- Annual home price growth dropped by nearly two percentage points in June – the greatest single-month slowdown on record since at least the early 1970s – with the rate of slowing this month jumping
66% from May - While June's slowdown was record-breaking, home price growth would need to decelerate at this pace for six more months to drive annual appreciation back to
5% , a rate more in line with long-run averages - It could take five months or more for the full impact of recent interest rate spikes to be reflected in traditional home price indexes, which suggests the potential for even stronger slowing to come
- Localized slowdowns were even more pronounced;
25% of major markets saw home price growth rates slow by three percentage points, with four of those decelerating by four or more points in June alone - Though Black Knight's Collateral Analytics data shows a seasonally adjusted
22% (114K) increase in the number of homes listed for sale over the past two months, inventory is still54% below 2017-2019 levels - Facing a national shortage of 716K listings, it would take more than a year of such record increases for inventory levels to fully normalize
- Some metro area markets are returning to pre-pandemic inventory levels more quickly than the national rate, with price gains softening or even showing early signs of reversing course in response
- With the supply/demand equation shifting quickly, some of these markets – including San Jose, Calif. (-
5.1% ), Seattle (-3.8% ) and San Francisco (-2.8% ) – are now seeing home prices pull back from recent peaks
JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Aug. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company's industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records data sets. With June marking the greatest deceleration in home price growth on record, this month's report dives deep into the latest housing market trends, looking specifically into home price appreciation and for-sale inventory trends at both the national and metro levels. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, June's slowdown from
"The pullback in home price growth in June marked the strongest single month of slowing on record dating back to at least the early 1970s – and it wasn't even close," said Graboske. "According to the Black Knight HPI, the annual rate of appreciation dropped nearly two full points in June. For context, during the 2006 downturn the strongest single-month slowing was 1.19 percentage points – about what we saw last month – and June topped that by
"We're also seeing significant shifts in the demand-supply equation, though that too has quite a way to go before normalization. Even with our Collateral Analytics data showing a seasonally adjusted
Drilling further into June home price data, the report finds the average San Jose home value has fallen
The Mortgage Monitor also found that the clear driver behind recent inventory increases is a decline in sales activity due to rising rates and the lowest levels of home affordability in nearly 40 years. Seasonally adjusted home sales are down by more than
Much more information on these and other topics can be found in this month's Mortgage Monitor.
The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the Black Knight HPI and Collateral Analytics' home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering
Black Knight's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/
Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage lending and servicing and real estate industries, as well as the capital and secondary markets. Businesses leverage our robust, integrated solutions across the entire homeownership life cycle to help retain existing customers, gain new customers, mitigate risk and operate more effectively.
Our clients rely on our proven, comprehensive, scalable products and our unwavering commitment to delivering superior client support to achieve their strategic goals and better serving their customers. For more information on Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com/.
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SOURCE Black Knight, Inc.
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