GDP, Inflation, and Rates to Remain Stable in 2025, Investors to Focus on Quality Across Asset Classes
Franklin Templeton Institute has released its Global Investment Management Survey, revealing optimistic predictions for 2025. The survey, gathering insights from over 200 senior investment professionals, forecasts:
- US real GDP growth of 2.5%, surpassing IMF and Bloomberg consensus expectations - US Core PCE inflation stabilizing around 2.75% - US unemployment rate ending at approximately 4.25% - S&P 500 projected to reach 6400-6800 by year-end - US earnings growth of 7.5%
The survey highlights opportunities in small-cap stocks, with favorable outlooks for India and Japan. In fixed income, US investment-grade spreads are expected to end at 95 bps, while high-yield spreads should reach 300 bps. Alternative investments show promise in secondary markets, private credit, and select real estate sectors including multi-family housing, industrial warehouse, and life sciences.
Franklin Templeton Institute ha pubblicato il suo Global Investment Management Survey, rivelando previsioni ottimistiche per il 2025. L'indagine, che raccoglie opinioni da oltre 200 professionisti senior nell'investimento, prevede:
- Crescita del PIL reale degli Stati Uniti del 2,5%, superando le aspettative del consenso dell'FMI e di Bloomberg
- Stabilizzazione dell'inflazione Core PCE degli Stati Uniti intorno al 2,75%
- Tasso di disoccupazione negli Stati Uniti che dovrebbe attestarsi intorno al 4,25%
- S&P 500 previsto tra 6400-6800 entro la fine dell'anno
- Crescita degli utili negli Stati Uniti del 7,5%
L'indagine evidenzia opportunità nei titoli a piccola capitalizzazione, con prospettive favorevoli per India e Giappone. Nel reddito fisso, si prevede che gli spread investment-grade degli Stati Uniti chiudano a 95 bps, mentre gli spread high-yield dovrebbero raggiungere i 300 bps. Gli investimenti alternativi mostrano promesse nei mercati secondari, nel credito privato e in settori immobiliari selezionati, tra cui alloggi multifamiliari, magazzini industriali e scienze della vita.
Franklin Templeton Institute ha publicado su Global Investment Management Survey, revelando predicciones optimistas para 2025. La encuesta, que recoge opiniones de más de 200 profesionales senior en inversiones, prevé:
- Crecimiento del PIB real de EE. UU. del 2.5%, superando las expectativas de consenso del FMI y Bloomberg
- Estabilización de la inflación PCE base en EE. UU. alrededor del 2.75%
- Tasa de desempleo en EE. UU. finalizando en aproximadamente 4.25%
- S&P 500 proyectado para alcanzar entre 6400-6800 para fin de año
- Crecimiento de ganancias en EE. UU. del 7.5%
La encuesta destaca oportunidades en acciones de pequeña capitalización, con perspectivas favorables para India y Japón. En renta fija, se espera que los spreads de grado de inversión de EE. UU. terminen en 95 bps, mientras que los spreads de alto rendimiento deberían alcanzar los 300 bps. Las inversiones alternativas muestran promesas en mercados secundarios, crédito privado y en sectores inmobiliarios seleccionados como viviendas multifamiliares, almacenes industriales y ciencias de la vida.
프랭클린 템플턴 연구소는 2025년에 대한 낙관적인 예측을 보여주는 글로벌 투자 관리 설문조사를 발표했습니다. 이 설문조사는 200명 이상의 고위 투자 전문가들로부터 의견을 수집하였으며, 다음과 같은 내용을 전망합니다:
- 미국 실질 GDP 성장률 2.5%, IMF 및 블룸버그의 예상치를 초과합니다.
- 미국의 핵심 PCE 인플레이션이 약 2.75%로 안정화됩니다.
- 미국의 실업률은 약 4.25%로 종료될 것으로 보입니다.
- S&P 500은 연말까지 6400-6800에 도달할 것으로 예상됩니다.
- 미국의 수익 성장률이 7.5%입니다.
이 설문조사는 소형주에서의 기회를 강조하며, 인도와 일본에 대한 긍정적인 전망을 제시합니다. 고정 수입에서는 미국의 투자 적격 스프레드가 95 bps에서 종료될 것으로 예상되며, 고수익 스프레드는 300 bps에 도달할 것으로 보입니다. 대안 투자는 2차 시장, 개인 신용 및 다가구 주택, 산업 창고, 생명 과학을 포함한 특정 부동산 분야에서 유망성을 보여줍니다.
Franklin Templeton Institute a publié son enquête mondiale sur la gestion des investissements, révélant des prévisions optimistes pour 2025. Cette enquête, qui compile les avis de plus de 200 professionnels seniors de l'investissement, prévoit :
- Croissance du PIB réel des États-Unis de 2,5%, dépassant les attentes du consensus du FMI et de Bloomberg
- Stabilisation de l'inflation de base PCE aux États-Unis autour de 2,75%
- Taux de chômage aux États-Unis se terminant à environ 4,25%
- S&P 500 projeté pour atteindre 6400-6800 d'ici la fin de l'année
- Croissance des bénéfices aux États-Unis de 7,5%
L'enquête met en lumière des opportunités dans les actions à petite capitalisation, avec des perspectives favorables pour l'Inde et le Japon. En termes de revenu fixe, les spreads de crédit de haute qualité aux États-Unis devraient se terminer à 95 points de base, tandis que les spreads à haut rendement devraient atteindre 300 points de base. Les investissements alternatifs montrent un potentiel sur les marchés secondaires, le crédit privé, et certains secteurs immobiliers, y compris le logement multifamilial, les entrepôts industriels et les sciences de la vie.
Franklin Templeton Institute hat seine Global Investment Management Survey veröffentlicht, die optimistische Prognosen für 2025 enthüllt. Die Umfrage, die Einblicke von über 200 erfahrenen Anlageexperten sammelt, prognostiziert:
- Wachstum des realen BIP der USA von 2,5%, über den Konsensprognosen von IWF und Bloomberg
- Stabilisierung der US-Kern-PCE-Inflation bei etwa 2,75%
- US-Arbeitslosenquote am Ende bei etwa 4,25%
- S&P 500 soll bis zum Jahresende 6400-6800 erreichen
- US-Gewinnwachstum von 7,5%
Die Umfrage hebt Chancen im Bereich der Small-Cap-Aktien hervor, mit positiven Ausblicken für Indien und Japan. Im Bereich der festverzinslichen Wertpapiere wird erwartet, dass die Spreads für hochwertige US-Anleihen bei 95 Basispunkten enden, während die Spreads für Hochzinsanleihen 300 Basispunkte erreichen sollten. Alternative Anlagen zeigen Potenzial in Sekundärmärkten, Privatkrediten und ausgewählten Immobiliensektoren, einschließlich Mehrfamilienhäusern, Industrieanlagen und Lebenswissenschaften.
- Projected US GDP growth of 2.5%, higher than consensus expectations
- S&P 500 expected to reach new highs (6400-6800 range)
- High-yield default rates expected at 2.5%, below historical average of 3.4%
- Municipal bonds projected to deliver 3.75% total returns in 2025
- Lower GDP growth forecasts for Europe (0.5%) and China (3.5%) compared to consensus
- US earnings growth projection of 7.5% significantly below market expectations of 14.7%
- Credit spreads expected to widen in 2025
- High-yield default rates expected to increase from current 1.1% to 2.5%
Insights
The Franklin Templeton Institute's comprehensive survey reveals several market-moving insights, particularly their divergent GDP forecasts from consensus. Their 2.5% US GDP growth projection stands notably higher than the IMF's 2.2%, while their China forecast of 3.5% is significantly below consensus of 4.5%. The S&P 500 target range of 6400-6800 suggests continued market optimism, though their 7.5% earnings growth forecast is substantially below the market's 14.7% expectation.
The fixed income outlook shows expected widening of credit spreads, with investment-grade spreads projected at 95bps and high-yield at 300bps by year-end 2025. While both represent increases from current levels, they remain below historical averages, indicating a relatively benign credit environment despite anticipated higher default rates.
The alternative investment segment highlights compelling opportunities in secondary markets and real estate debt, particularly due to traditional bank lending constraints. The identification of specific real estate sectors (multi-family, industrial warehouse, life sciences) provides targeted investment opportunities in a recovering market.
The survey's projections present several investable themes for 2025. The higher-than-consensus US GDP forecast coupled with stable inflation around 2.75% PCE suggests a "Goldilocks" economy scenario - not too hot to trigger aggressive Fed action, but robust enough to support corporate earnings. The divergence between Franklin Templeton's earnings growth forecast and market expectations (7.5% vs 14.7%) signals potential downside risk to current market valuations.
In fixed income, the projected spread widening but below-historical-average levels indicates an opportunistic environment for credit selection. The municipal bond return forecast of 3.75% offers an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity, particularly for tax-sensitive investors. The emphasis on shorter duration positioning aligns with the uncertain rate environment.
Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Management Survey reveals optimistic outlook for the economy, equities, fixed income and alternative investments in 2025
Conducted in November, the results capture insights from more than 200 of Franklin Templeton’s senior investment professionals worldwide, covering public and private equity, public and private debt, real estate, digital assets, hedge funds and secondary private market investments.
“One year ago, this survey showed lingering fears of a global recession but growing optimism that a recession should and could be avoided,” said Stephen Dover, Chief Market Strategist and Head of the Franklin Templeton Institute. “Fast forward to today, our robust economy aligns with our original predictions and we are optimistic for the year ahead.”
The complete survey results can be found here.
Additional Insights from the Survey’s Four Focus Areas
The Economy Should Remain Robust
-
We predict US real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of
2.5% , which is higher than the2.2% expectation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and2.1% Bloomberg consensus;Europe real GDP forecast of0.5% , which is lower than the1.2% expectations from the IMF and the Bloomberg consensus; andChina real GDP of3.5% , which is lower than the4.5% expectations from the IMF and Bloomberg consensus. -
Inflation, as measured by US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is expected to stabilize and finish 2025 around
2.75% , which is in line with the current reading of2.8% and higher than the estimates from the Fed of2.2% and Bloomberg consensus of2.3% . -
We believe the unemployment rate in the US will end the year around
4.25% , in line with the current Bloomberg consensus expectation of4.3% .
Equities: Will End the Year Positive
- The S&P 500 is anticipated to end the year higher, within the range of 6400–6800
-
We predict
7.5% earnings growth in theU.S. , which is significantly lower than the market’s expectation of14.7% .U.S. earnings growth will be driven by strong real GDP growth of2.5% . - We favor small-cap stocks and believe both value and growth stocks will generate positive returns due to free cash flow yield, high return on invested capital, and high return on equity.
-
Outside of the U.S., investors have a bullish outlook on
India andJapan . - Favored sectors include financials, technology, industrials, and energy/energy services.
Fixed Income: Shorter Duration Will Benefit
- US investment-grade spreads are expected to end 2025 at 95 basis points (bps) up from the current level of 78 bps but below the 10-year average of 122 bps.
- US high-yield spreads are expected to end 2025 at 300 bps up from a current level of 266 bps, but below the 10-year average spread of roughly 419 bps.
-
High-yield default rates are expected to increase from
1.1% to around2.5% , still much lower than the historical average of3.4% . -
Municipal bonds continue to be a high-quality, diversifying investment option, with expected total returns of about
3.75% in 2025.
Alternatives: New Opportunities Arise
- Secondary investments offer good value due to their structural advantages for individuals and institutions.
- A significant amount of debt will mature soon, presenting an attractive opportunity for private credit managers with capital.
- The most attractive opportunity is within real estate debt as banks hesitate to lend, allowing managers to negotiate favorable terms.
- Real estate valuations dropped to more realistic levels, creating opportunities across select sectors, namely multi-family housing, industrial warehouse, life sciences, medical offices and neighborhood retail.
“Confidence continues to grow across asset classes. As we enter 2025 from a position of strength, we expect global economic growth to be stable and stronger than anticipated,” added Dover. “Investors who strategically position themselves to capitalize on these economic conditions in 2025 will unlock favorable outcomes.”
There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.
About the survey
The survey provides a comprehensive summation of the views of more than 200 of Franklin Templeton’s investment professionals who focus on both public and private markets across asset classes. The specific forecasts within the survey reflect the average of the group; each investment team operates independently and has its own views.
First conducted in January 2024, the survey is a starting point for Franklin Templeton clients, including financial advisors and institutional investors, to understand the firm’s views on the economy, equities, fixed income and alternatives. For an overview of the January survey, click here.
The Franklin Templeton Institute, launched in January 2021, is an innovative hub for research and knowledge sharing that unlocks the firm’s competitive advantage as a source of global market insights.
The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.
About Franklin Templeton
Franklin Resources, Inc. [NYSE:BEN] is a global investment management organization with subsidiaries operating as Franklin Templeton and serving clients in over 150 countries. Franklin Templeton’s mission is to help clients achieve better outcomes through investment management expertise, wealth management and technology solutions. Through its specialist investment managers, the company offers specialization on a global scale, bringing extensive capabilities in fixed income, equity, alternatives and multi-asset solutions. With more than 1,400 investment professionals, and offices in major financial markets around the world, the
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Franklin Templeton Corporate Communications:
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Source: Franklin Templeton
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