Barclays Research Estimates That AI Could Drive US Data-Centre Usage to Triple by 2030
Barclays Research has released a new Impact Series report highlighting that AI growth could lead to a tripling of US data-centre usage by 2030. The report projects an increase from 150-175 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 560 TWh, equivalent to 13% of current US electricity demand.
Currently, data centres consume 1.0%-1.5% of global electricity, excluding cryptocurrencies. The report emphasizes the significant challenges in balancing emissions targets with AI advancement, suggesting that power conservation efforts through efficiencies may have impact in offsetting AI proliferation.
The analysis calls for collaboration between policymakers, tech companies, and the energy industry to ensure AI development remains both socially beneficial and environmentally sustainable, as the infrastructure demands could significantly impact global electricity demand and net-zero targets.
La ricerca di Barclays ha pubblicato un nuovo rapporto della Serie Impatto che evidenzia come la crescita dell'IA potrebbe portare a una triplicazione dell'uso dei data center negli Stati Uniti entro il 2030. Il rapporto prevede un aumento da 150-175 terawattora (TWh) nel 2023 a 560 TWh, equivalente al 13% dell'attuale domanda di elettricità negli Stati Uniti.
Attualmente, i data center consumano tra l'1.0% e l'1.5% dell'elettricità globale, escludendo le criptovalute. Il rapporto sottolinea le sfide significative nel bilanciare gli obiettivi di emissioni con i progressi dell'IA, suggerendo che gli sforzi per il risparmio energetico attraverso l'efficienza potrebbero avere un impatto nel compensare la proliferazione dell'IA.
L'analisi richiede collaborazione tra i responsabili politici, le aziende tecnologiche e l'industria energetica per garantire che lo sviluppo dell'IA rimanga sia socialmente utile che ambientalmente sostenibile, poiché le esigenze infrastrutturali potrebbero influenzare notevolmente la domanda globale di elettricità e gli obiettivi di azzeramento netto.
La investigación de Barclays ha publicado un nuevo informe de la Serie de Impacto que destaca que el crecimiento de la IA podría llevar a triplicar el uso de centros de datos en EE.UU. para 2030. El informe proyecta un aumento de 150-175 teravatios hora (TWh) en 2023 a 560 TWh, equivalente al 13% de la demanda actual de electricidad en EE.UU.
Actualmente, los centros de datos consumen entre el 1.0% y el 1.5% de la electricidad global, excluyendo las criptomonedas. El informe enfatiza los desafíos significativos para equilibrar los objetivos de emisiones con el avance de la IA, sugiriendo que los esfuerzos de conservación de energía a través de la eficiencia podrían tener un impacto en la compensación de la proliferación de la IA.
El análisis llama a la colaboración entre los responsables de políticas, las empresas tecnológicas y la industria energética para asegurar que el desarrollo de la IA siga siendo tanto socialmente beneficioso como ambientalmente sostenible, ya que las demandas de infraestructura podrían impactar significativamente la demanda global de electricidad y los objetivos de emisiones netas cero.
바클레이스 리서치는 AI의 성장이 2030년까지 미국 데이터 센터 이용량을 세 배로 늘릴 수 있다는 새로운 영향력 시리즈 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 보고서는 2023년 150-175 테라와트시(TWh)에서 560 TWh로의 증가를 예상하며, 이는 현재 미국 전기 수요의 13%에 해당합니다.
현재 데이터 센터는 암호화폐를 제외하고 전 세계 전력의 1.0%-1.5%를 소비하고 있습니다. 이 보고서는 AI 발전과 배출 목표를 균형 있게 맞추는 데 있는 상당한 도전을 강조하며, 효율성을 통한 전력 보존 노력이 AI의 확산을 상쇄하는 데 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 제안합니다.
이 분석은 정책 입안자, 기술 기업, 에너지 산업 간의 협력을 촉구하여 AI 개발이 사회적으로 유익하고 환경적으로 지속 가능하도록 보장해야 한다고 강조하며, 인프라 수요가 글로벌 전력 수요와 탄소 중립 목표에 중대한 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 경고합니다.
La recherche de Barclays a publié un nouveau rapport de la série Impact, soulignant que la croissance de l'IA pourrait entraîner un triplement de l'utilisation des centres de données aux États-Unis d'ici 2030. Le rapport prévoit une augmentation de 150 à 175 térawattheures (TWh) en 2023 à 560 TWh, ce qui équivaut à 13 % de la demande actuelle d'électricité aux États-Unis.
Actuellement, les centres de données consomment entre 1,0 % et 1,5 % de l'électricité mondiale, sans compter les cryptomonnaies. Le rapport met en avant les défis significatifs à relever pour équilibrer les objectifs d'émissions et les avancées de l'IA, suggérant que des efforts de conservation de l'énergie par le biais de l'efficacité pourraient avoir un impact en compensant la prolifération de l'IA.
L'analyse appelle à la collaboration entre les décideurs politiques, les entreprises de technologie et l'industrie énergétique pour garantir que le développement de l'IA reste à la fois socialement bénéfique et écologiquement durable, car les exigences en matière d'infrastructure pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la demande mondiale d'électricité et les objectifs de zéro émission nette.
Die Barclays-Forschung hat einen neuen Impact-Report veröffentlicht, der hervorhebt, dass das Wachstum von KI bis 2030 zu einer Verdreifachung des Energieverbrauchs von Rechenzentren in den USA führen könnte. Der Bericht prognostiziert einen Anstieg von 150-175 Terawattstunden (TWh) im Jahr 2023 auf 560 TWh, was 13% des aktuellen Strombedarfs der USA entspricht.
Derzeit verbrauchen Rechenzentren weltweit 1,0% bis 1,5% des Stroms, ohne Kryptowährungen zu berücksichtigen. Der Bericht betont die erheblichen Herausforderungen, das Ziel von Emissionen mit dem Fortschritt der KI in Einklang zu bringen, und schlägt vor, dass Energiesparmaßnahmen durch Effizienz dazu beitragen könnten, die Verbreitung von KI auszugleichen.
Die Analyse fordert eine Zusammenarbeit zwischen politischen Entscheidungsträgern, Technologiefirmen und der Energiebranche, um sicherzustellen, dass die Entwicklung von KI sowohl sozial vorteilhaft als auch umweltverträglich bleibt, da die Anforderungen an die Infrastruktur die globale Stromnachfrage und die Netto-Null-Ziele erheblich beeinflussen könnten.
- Research positions Barclays as a thought leader in AI and environmental impact analysis
- Report findings could drive increased demand for Barclays' research and advisory services in the AI sector
- None.
Insights
The projected tripling of US data center usage by 2030 due to AI adoption represents a significant shift in infrastructure demands with far-reaching implications for both technology and utility sectors. The estimated increase to 560 TWh - equivalent to 13% of current US electricity demand - vastly exceeds previous industry forecasts.
This trajectory creates substantial opportunities for companies in the data center REIT sector, power infrastructure providers and renewable energy developers. Firms like Digital Realty Trust, Equinix and CyrusOne could see accelerated growth. The massive power requirements will likely drive increased demand for advanced cooling solutions and energy-efficient hardware.
For Barclays, this research positions them well in the growing intersection of AI and infrastructure banking. However, the environmental concerns highlighted could lead to stricter regulations and higher operating costs for data center operators, potentially impacting their margins and capital requirements.
Think of this as a modern-day gold rush - but instead of picks and shovels, the essential infrastructure will be power plants and cooling systems. The winners will be those who can efficiently deliver and manage these massive power requirements while navigating environmental constraints.
The projected 275-385% increase in data center power consumption represents a critical inflection point for the US power grid. Current infrastructure was not designed for this scale of growth, particularly in key data center hubs like Virginia, Texas and Oregon.
The timing is particularly challenging as it coincides with broader electrification trends in transportation and industry. This convergence will require massive investments in grid infrastructure and likely accelerate the transition to distributed energy resources and microgrids. Power utilities will need to rapidly expand capacity while maintaining grid stability.
Simple terms: Imagine trying to power a small city that suddenly triples in size - that's essentially what's happening with AI data centers. The existing power grid is like a highway system that needs to handle three times more traffic, but can't simply add lanes overnight.
This creates immediate opportunities in grid modernization, energy storage and advanced power management systems. Companies providing these solutions could see substantial growth as data center operators scramble to secure reliable power sources while meeting environmental commitments.
A new Barclays Impact Series report explores the global race for pre-eminence in Artificial Intelligence – and the strains on resources, and likely geostrategic tensions, that will result.
AI revolution: Meeting massive AI infrastructure demands (Photo: Business Wire)
Barclays’ estimates for data-centre usage are significantly above current consensus and the report examines the consequences of such rapid AI expansion for the world’s ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The report argues that efforts to conserve power through efficiencies can likely only go so far in offsetting the proliferation of AI.
“The balancing act between achieving emissions targets while allowing responsible AI technology to advance is a global challenge,” says Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research. “Policymakers, tech companies and the energy industry must forge new partnerships to deliver AI that is socially beneficial and environmentally sustainable”.
Barclays analyses the projected growth in consumption driven by AI, the urgent questions raised by the significant infrastructure demands of the technology, and how the public and private sectors may collaborate to deliver AI responsibly and sustainably.
Barclays’ Impact Series uses data-driven analysis to explore economic, demographic and disruptive changes affecting markets, sectors and society at large. The key findings of today’s report include:
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Energy Use Today: Data centres currently consume
1.0% -1.5% of global electricity, excluding crypto currencies (IEA, mid-2024) -
Future Energy Demand in the US: AI could drive US data-centre use to triple by 2030, from 150-175 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 560 TWh – equivalent to
13% of current US electricity demand. - Implications for Net-Zero targets: AI and data centres could provide a much bigger spur to global electricity demand than was initially factored in to net-zero targets.
Click here to read the full report.
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Source: Barclays
FAQ
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