Barclays and IBM analyze how AI’s accessibility and versatility could bring a boost to productivity
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Insights
The exploration of generative AI's potential to drive a productivity boom is reminiscent of the transformative effects of historical technological advancements. The assertion that AI could counterbalance the decline in the skilled labor force in advanced economies and bolster economic growth is a significant claim. It suggests a paradigm shift where AI not only automates tasks but also enhances human capabilities, leading to a more efficient allocation of the workforce.
However, the impact of AI on productivity must be contextualized within current economic frameworks. The introduction of AI could lead to displacement of jobs, necessitating a robust policy response to manage transitions and ensure inclusive growth. Moreover, the potential of AI to create a divergence in productivity and wage growth between developed and emerging economies warrants careful consideration of global economic imbalances.
The report's focus on the industry-specific implications of AI suggests a nuanced understanding of the technology's potential. Industries that are early adopters of AI stand to benefit from first-mover advantages, such as increased market share and innovation leadership. However, industries that are slower to adopt may face competitive disadvantages, potentially impacting their market valuation and investor confidence.
Furthermore, the productivity gains from AI could lead to business innovation and new market opportunities, which could be a boon for investors looking for growth sectors. On the flip side, there could be market disruptions as traditional business models are challenged by AI-driven alternatives, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies.
The mention of the role of policies and regulations in the dissemination of AI's benefits highlights the legal complexities surrounding this technology. As AI becomes more pervasive in business processes, there will be an increased need for legal frameworks that address issues of data privacy, intellectual property and liability. Companies that proactively engage with these legal aspects may mitigate risks and adhere to compliance standards, potentially affecting their reputation and stock performance.
Additionally, the legal landscape will influence how the benefits of AI are distributed across society. This includes considerations of equitable access to AI technologies and the management of socioeconomic disparities that may arise from the uneven distribution of AI's productivity gains.
A new Barclays Impact Series report, authored in partnership with IBM’s Institute for Business Value, explores how breakthroughs in generative AI could possibly drive a productivity boom similar to past periods of revolutionary technology change
Notebook with the title: AI revolution: productivity boom and beyond
“The world’s demographic patterns are shifting in unprecedented ways and productivity growth in advanced economies has been disappointingly low over the past two decades, despite rapid growth of the digital economy,” says Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research. “Harnessing AI’s productivity gains has the power to offset the decline in the skilled labour force in advanced economies and allow ageing societies to achieve economic growth.”
“AI can unlock productivity gains that will lead to significant business innovation and societal impact,” says Ana Paula Assis, Chair and General Manager IBM EMEA. “We are witnessing a pivotal moment where AI has become a multi-purpose technology, with applications that have the potential to reinvent virtually every workflow and process, as well as transform the work of professionals both those who are skilled and those who are low- or no-skilled in technology.”
Barclays’ Impact Series uses data-driven analysis to explore economic, demographic and disruptive changes affecting markets, sectors and society at large. The key findings of today’s report include:
- For developed economies, the implications are far-reaching. An AI-led boom could help to offset some of the productivity effects of shrinking working-age populations
- When it comes to the emerging world, the picture is different: working-age populations are still expanding, but skills and education levels can be more limited, which applies downward pressure on GDP-per-hour-worked. If AI leads to job augmentation in developing economies, it could create more productive workers and, thus, better paid jobs
- The policies adopted by companies, industries, and regulators will have a large bearing on the delivery of the promised benefits of AI and how those benefits will be distributed
Link to full report: https://www.cib.barclays/our-insights/AI-productivity-boom.html?cid=pressrelease_site_AIImpactSeries_
About Barclays
Barclays is a British universal bank. We are diversified by business, by different types of customer and client, and by geography. Our businesses include consumer banking and payments operations around the world, as well as a top-tier, full service, global corporate and investment bank, all of which are supported by our service company which provides technology, operations and functional services across the Group. For further information about Barclays, please visit our website home.barclays.
About Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank
Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank is comprised of the Investment Banking, International Corporate Banking, Global Markets and Research businesses. It provides money managers, financial institutions, governments, supranational organisations and corporate clients with services and advice for their funding, financing, strategic and risk management needs. For further information about Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank, please visit our website www.cib.barclays.
About the IBM Institute for Business Value
For two decades, the IBM Institute for Business Value has served as the thought leadership think tank for IBM. What inspires us is producing research-backed, technology-informed strategic insights that help leaders make smarter business decisions. From our unique position at the intersection of business, technology, and society, we survey, interview, and engage with thousands of executives, consumers, and experts each year, synthesizing their perspectives into credible, inspiring, and actionable insights.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240111175152/en/
Press:
Claudia Gilbert-Allen
claudia.gilbertallen@barclays.com
Source: Barclays
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