BBVA Research publishes its first quarter U.S. Economic Outlook

Rhea-AI Summary

The BBVA Research team has released its Economic Outlook for Q1 2021, emphasizing the ongoing economic challenges due to COVID-19 and a sluggish vaccine rollout necessitating further stimulus. The report highlights the struggles of the mining, hospitality, and transportation sectors, while noting support for residential real estate from low interest rates. Political uncertainty and corporate defaults pose risks for the economy, particularly impacting labor participation and unemployment rates, especially among Black, Hispanic, and women workers. The analysis also discusses the Biden Administration's proposed fiscal stimulus and its potential inflationary effects.

Positive

• Support for residential real estate from low interest rates.
• Higher oil prices benefiting the oil and gas sector.

Negative

• Mining and hospitality sectors struggling to recover.
• Transportation industry severely impacted.
• Political uncertainty and corporate defaults posing risks.
• Labor participation and unemployment negatively affected, particularly among marginalized groups.

HOUSTON, Jan. 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2021, noting that a post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and a vaccine rollout that is falling short of expectations have confirmed the need for further stimulus. 

The report, published by the BBVA Research team headed by BBVA Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp, continues to highlight the ongoing economic impact of the pandemic, as well as the recent election. According to its authors, the mining and leisure & hospitality industries continue to struggle harder to recover compared to other industries. While the transportation industry remains acutely impacted, higher oil prices are supporting the oil and gas industry.

Residential real estate has been supported by low interest rates and low supply according to the report, but commercial real estate trends continue to be exacerbated by the pandemic. Consumer consumption is also losing steam due to COVID-19.

The greatest source of potential economic shocks over the next 12-18 months remains political uncertainty and corporate defaults, generating both short- and long-term uncertainties. The political turmoil also adds to upward pressures on long-term rates, according to the report.

The report further notes that labor force participation and unemployment rates continue to be negatively impacted, with Black and Hispanic Americans disproportionately impacted. Women in the workforce also remain hard-hit by the impact of the pandemic, according to the economic outlook.

The BBVA Research publication further delves into the new fiscal stimulus package proposed by the Biden Administration, the economic impact of additional components of its agenda, and inflation. 

BBVA USA's research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA USA operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVANews_USA.

Read the full report here.

See the complete library of BBVA Research publications here.

For more BBVA news visit, www.bbva.com and the U.S. Newsroom.

Additional news updates can be found via Twitter and Instagram.

For more financial information about BBVA in the U.S., visit bbvausa.investorroom.com.

BBVA Group
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico, it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States. It is also the leading shareholder in Turkey's Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers' real needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.

BBVA USA
In the U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 641 branches, including 330 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 44 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico. The bank ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2018.

 

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SOURCE BBVA USA

FAQ

What does the BBVA Q1 2021 Economic Outlook report focus on?

The report highlights the economic challenges from COVID-19, the slow vaccine rollout, and the need for additional stimulus.

Which sectors are struggling according to BBVA's Economic Outlook?

The mining, hospitality, and transportation sectors are identified as struggling to recover.

How are residential real estate trends discussed in the BBVA report?

Residential real estate is supported by low interest rates, despite struggles in commercial real estate.

What economic risks are mentioned in the BBVA report?

Political uncertainty and corporate defaults are noted as potential economic shocks.

How does the BBVA report address labor market issues?

It states that labor participation and unemployment are negatively impacted, especially affecting Black, Hispanic, and women workers.